A Couple Days Removed

Now that the initial shock has subsided, I'm warming to this trade a little bit. I still don't think it's really in the long term interests of the club. I still think that the Angels are not likely to sign Teixeira. I still think that their pursuit of Teixeira will cost them Frankie as well.

But the positives, as have mentioned mentioned numerous places, include the likelihood of picking up four picks before the second round, and they free up plenty of money to sign those guys. In addition, if Kendry Morales' recent display indicate a real improvement, then he may not be a huge downgrade over Kotchman. To top it off, Kotchman's comments about no ties to the franchise, and the sentiment that he was not pleased with Scioscia's decision to sit him against some lefties makes it a bit easier to wave goodbye.

This team, as currently constructed, is proving that they are the best team in baseball, and as I mentioned the other day, I do believe that this makes the Angels better right now, no question. It's (hopefully) going to be a long two months while we all wait for the post-season to get underway, but if everyone remains healthy, then the Angels should be the odds on favorite for the World Series. I can live with that.

First Reaction: Don't Like It

I've written about this a bunch on other sites today, but the short version is, I'm not a fan of the Teixeira trade. I will grant that it make the Angels better today than they were yesterday.

Unfortunately, I think it makes them worse in the future. I do not think they will be able to re-sign Tex, and I think that their focus on him will also lead to the loss of Frankie. The Angels will be weaker in the bullpen and at first base next year. They've essentially dealt a productive young player for a two month rental, and in the process signaled that anything short of a World Series Championship this year is a failure.

Tex does not want to stay on the West Coast, and you can forget about the exclusive negotiating window. Tex is a Boras client, and he WILL test the market. The Angels won't outbid all of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles. And if his status hangs for a while, which it likely will with at least four teams involved, Frankie will probably be gone before it's resolved.

The Angels have either misplaced faith in their ability to bring Tex back, or they think Morales will be ready. The counter argument is that this frees up a lot of money to be active on the market AND it gets them probably four draft picks. The picks I like, but the Angels have not shown the ability to be consistently smart on the free agent market. Just ask Steve Finley, Shea Hillenbrand, and Gary Matthews. Not to mention the full court press they put on Paul Konerko.

So short run, it means they have a better chance to win. It also means they have to win, or the deal blows up in their faces. The team will be worse come November and going forward. Now they MUST sign Juan Rivera, and they may need to buy him a first baseman's glove.

I do not like this deal.

One of Three

I think we all wish things would have gone a little differently in Seattle over the weekend, but them's the breaks, and when all is said and done, 1-2 in their building isn't all that awful.

Cause for concern:

• Two straight poor outings from Jon Garland.
• The bullpen continues to be less than impressive.
• Nobody seems to be able to get Raul Ibanez out.
• Gary Matthews Jr. is an out-making machine.
• Despite the flood of offense so far this season, the Angels sit just one game over .500.
• Howie Kendrick can't seem to stay healthy.
• The defense is at times not so good.
  

Cause for optimism:

• Lackey's throwing again.
• Frankie's velocity was up a bit yesterday, even though his location wasn't great. Maybe getting guys back into their normal roles will help everyone calm down a bit.
• Raul Ibanez doesn't play for the Rangers.
• I'm sorry, I can't think of anything positive about Matthews.
• Howie, when healthy, is on fire.
  

The strength of the offense actually may be sustainable. No, I don't expect Figgins to hit .400, or Howie to hit .500, or Kotchman to stay as hot as he's been. But I also expect a little more out of Vlad than we've gotten so far, and I expect those three to hit all season.

In Figgins' case, I think we're getting past the point where we can call his success over the last four and a half months of regular season action a fluke. I've mentioned before that I think somewhere between .300 and .310 is a fairly conservative, yet realistic estimate of what he can do this year, and if the plate discipline (12 walks in 50 plate appearances) is real, and I suspect it is (to an extent - I think one walk every 8-9 appearances is a realistic goal), then he could be poised for a very fine season.

Kendrick is Kendrick, and if he's in the lineup, he's going to hit. He doesn't seem to be a guy that pitchers can figure out for very long. As he makes his way around the league a few times, they may catch up to him a bit, but he's had sustained success at the lower levels, and he just seems like the type that will be able to adjust to what the pitchers at this level will do.

As for Kotchman, the average isn't a surprise. I don't expect .370, but it's a small sample, and I do expect him, if healthy, to stay north of .300 all year, and if things break right, .325 or so isn't out of the question. As for the three homers, I'm not surprised. I know the pundits don't expect him to ever show a ton of power, and maybe their right. But what I saw last year and this are: 1) a lot of doubles, which usually portend decent power numbers; and 2) although he didn't hit a lot of homers last year, many of them were LONG home runs. He wasn't hitting shots that scraped the wall. He crushed a few of them deep into the right field seats, which isn't easy to do in Anaheim. Already this year he killed one in Minnesota, AND he hit one out in Seattle that was on a pretty good pitch, not a pitch a guy with little power should have been able to hit out. The predictions are that he'll top out around 25 homers. I think we may see that many, or more, this year assuming good health (a big assumption).

The Angels routinely have trouble firing on all cylinders at this point in the season. They muddle along doing some things well and other things not so well until they hit a summer stretch where they start to assert themselves. That's pretty much what I see happening this year as well.

Angels 3; Reds 5 - and other notes

I'm with the Rev on this one. I can't think of one particular player, or even two, on whom this loss can be pinned. Escobar only lasted six, and gave up three runs, but he also struck out 14, so it's tough to blame him. Of course, he occasionally had trouble getting the strikeouts he really needed, but that's simply analysis in hindsight.

Figgins blew a simple tag that cost the Angels a big run. Heads up play by Josh Hamilton on that slide, but as I told my dad after that play, if I'm the Angels, I make sure every tag comes down hard. No retaliation, but send the message that if they're going to make tricky slides, they're going to pay for the privilege. And while a review of the scoreboard says Erick Aybar's error didn't matter much, it more or less put the final nail in the coffin. It's a lot easier to get one run than two in an inning featuring the Angels' three best "sluggers".

Mike Napoli and Orlando Cabrera had less than stellar nights at the plate. They were a combined 1-9, with five runners left on base, three in scoring position.

But ultimately, they just played against a team who played better than them, at least for one night, and sometimes that happens. They aren't going to win every game. But losing the first game of the set puts extra importance on the last two. It doesn't help matters that the Mariners simply won't lose. They've won five in a row and nine of their last ten, and they now sit only a game back in the loss column. I still don't think the Mariners are *that* good, but what I think doesn't matter. All that matters is what they think, and if they think they're that good, they're going to be very tough beat this season.

In other news, the Times is reporting that Dallas McPherson has been cleared to run on a treadmill, and Juan Rivera will be taking batting practice as soon as next week. In addition, Maicer Izturis is almost done with his rehab assignment. Sooner or later, someone needs to figure out where all of these guys are going to go. There are four guys on the DL who could return by mid to late July, and three of those should be back much sooner. So where do they go?

Nathan Haynes will go down, obviously, so that covers Rivera. If you bring back Ztu and McPherson, Aybar will have to go, but who else? Another outfielder? Hillenbrand? As much as many of us might like it to be Hillenbrand, I'm not sure I could see the Angels brass making that move.

Who goes out for Speier? Oliver? Carrasco? Bootcheck and Moseley have outpitched both of them, but will the Angels cut those ties? There are some tough decisions coming up, assuming other injuries don't come into play to "help" the Angels make those roster decisions.

And finally, I haven't seen this noted anywhere else, but Casey Kotchman now has eight homers, and is on pace for 21. I think most people have considered Kotchman to be a 20-25 homer guy (per season) for his career, which is good, but not great power. But I'll tell you what. For a guy who isn't supposed to have great power, he has hit the shit out of the balls that have left the yard for his last three or four homers. These haven't been of the Garret Anderson in the 2003 home run derby variety*. They've been getting five to ten rows deep into the right field bleachers in Anaheim, which isn't easy to do for a left hander, and the one he hit yesterday was an absolute bomb. The kid is only 24. Don't be surprised if in three years or so, he's hitting somewhere between 30-40 per season.

*GA won the 2003 home run derby, and I swear that he didn't one homer more than about 3 rows deep at the Cell. It was like he was hitting wedges and dropping them right on the pin. It was more a display of conservation of energy than pure power. But it was impressive.

One Week Down

So the Angels are off to a 5-2 start, which has to be just about the best start they've had in the last few years, and they're a couple of key hits away from being 7-0. Still, the offense has sputtered with runners in scoring position, or at least it sure did against the A's. Only Cleveland, Seattle, and Minnesota have allowed fewer runs to this point, and that's only because Cleveland and Seattle had an entire series postponed, while Minnesota has played two fewer games. The starting pitching has been darn near stellar, and only the Yankees have a better relief ERA to this point.

Offensively, Vlad has been a monster, and the Angels have the fifth best OPS in the league to this point, due in large part to Vlad's 440/483/880, and Casey Kotchman's 375/464/625 line. Howie is off to a slow start at the plate, but he's been downright excellent in the field. Speaking of which, early returns on the defense are mixed. A two error inning on opening day led to a run and a ton of pitches from Lackey, but didn't affect the outcome of the game, and HGHMJ has been pretty solid in the field to this point, save for his one error.

It would have been nice to take three of four from Oakland, but I'll settle for a split. Now the Angels move on to Milwaukee to face the Indians. It's cold here, folks. Too cold for baseball. And I'm not surprised that the morons in charge have Minnesota, a dome team, playing in Chicago (where one game was canceled due to single digit wind-chills), and Seattle (not) playing in Cleveland, where as mentioned above, not one game was completed. Good thinking, schedule makers. With any luck, I'll be able to make it to Milwaukee for one game. It's about a 90 minute drive, but I'm working on making plans for the game.