Tuesday, July 29, 2008

First Reaction: Don't Like It

I've written about this a bunch on other sites today, but the short version is, I'm not a fan of the Teixeira trade. I will grant that it make the Angels better today than they were yesterday.

Unfortunately, I think it makes them worse in the future. I do not think they will be able to re-sign Tex, and I think that their focus on him will also lead to the loss of Frankie. The Angels will be weaker in the bullpen and at first base next year. They've essentially dealt a productive young player for a two month rental, and in the process signaled that anything short of a World Series Championship this year is a failure.

Tex does not want to stay on the West Coast, and you can forget about the exclusive negotiating window. Tex is a Boras client, and he WILL test the market. The Angels won't outbid all of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles. And if his status hangs for a while, which it likely will with at least four teams involved, Frankie will probably be gone before it's resolved.

The Angels have either misplaced faith in their ability to bring Tex back, or they think Morales will be ready. The counter argument is that this frees up a lot of money to be active on the market AND it gets them probably four draft picks. The picks I like, but the Angels have not shown the ability to be consistently smart on the free agent market. Just ask Steve Finley, Shea Hillenbrand, and Gary Matthews. Not to mention the full court press they put on Paul Konerko.

So short run, it means they have a better chance to win. It also means they have to win, or the deal blows up in their faces. The team will be worse come November and going forward. Now they MUST sign Juan Rivera, and they may need to buy him a first baseman's glove.

I do not like this deal.


mattwelch said...

I find your lack of faith disturbing.

Or more accurately, I'm just not convinced this makes us worse in '09, because I'm not convinced we won't sign Frankie and Tex.

The Angels *have*, in the past, outbid other teams for a primo free agent (Vlad, Torii). Moreno hasn't really increased payroll in five years. G.A. & Garland are coming off the books (as are Oliver & Rivera). And, going deep in the playoffs is pretty good for revenue.

I'm shaken up by this, sure, but too much of people's pessimism seems to depend on this being a rental, when I think that's far from settled. If we get to keep the rest of Tex's prime, this deal is nails, no matter how much I was looking forward to growing old with Krotch.

Seitz said...

The Yankees and Red Sox either weren't after Guerrero, or knew he wasn't likely to play in their town. I think a hungry Hank Steibrenner with a need for first baseman is going to overpay by a ton for Teix. It won't be Arte's fault when he doesn't sign, because he'll get stupid money, but he won't be an Angel next year, or at least that's my prediction.

And I think the Angels will be after him hard, and I think the bidding will drag on long enough that Frankie will be gone by the time the Angels are ready for plan B. Still, it makes them pretty stout for the rest of this year.

THN said...

Why do you hate winning? Just kidding. I like it. There's a saying (and I'll probably get this wrong) but insanity is doing the same thing but expecting different results. The Angels have been arrogant in their approach that they don't need a lefty set-up guy or they don't need power hitters. They needed a little bit of a shake up.

MSS said...

We already knew that the season was going to be considered a failure if the team did not win the World Series, or at least an AL pennant. So we can't evaluate the trade on that criterion.

And while I do not follow your logic, if the trade somehow makes it more likely that Frankie leaves, then that's another reason to like it. I sure hope the Angels are not lured by his demolition of the single-season save record into thinking K-Rod is still the great reliever he once was.

Seitz said...

Another person who doesn't get it. Once again, the comparison isn't between what Frankie is, and what you wish Frankie was. The comparison is between Frankie and other closers. If you don't think, saves aside, that Frankie is still dominant, and one of the top three closers in the game, you're on drugs. Very few guys dominate for the period of time that Frankie has dominated. If the Angels don't sign him, they'll regret it.