- Albert's contract is an overpayment that will look pretty bad in four or five years. And that being the case, who the hell cares? It's not my money, and Arte has pretty clearly shown that the worst contract in baseball (Vernon Wells) is not going to keep him from spending money on excellent players who want to come to Southern California. If he delivers a championship somewhere over the course of this contract, it's worth it.
- CJ Wilson would make serviceable #1 starter, but he'll be a pretty terrific #4 starter on the Angels. And while he's 30 years old, he's only been starting in the majors for two years, so he doesn't have a tremendous amount of innings on his arm.
- Latroy Hawkins is going to feel really out of place at that press conference.
- How would you like to be Jerry DiPoto? You finally get your first real GM job, and take over a relatively solid team with some holes to fill, a team with a pretty decent farm system, arguably the best prospect in all of baseball, and oh yeah, the owner also has given $40 plus million to spend in the off-season.
- I have a lot of friends who are Cardinals fans, and so far I haven't sensed much animosity towards Pujols. My friend Dayn says that Albert will continue to be one of his favorite players. And while I understand that they're disappointed right now, they are just coming off a World Series Championship. Given the option of losing the WS, or winning it and being forced to give up my team's best player, I'd probably choose the latter. Flags fly forever.
- These are pretty great moves to make right before you sign a new television contract.
- If there was ever a question about whether Arte Moreno cared about winning, I think it has been answered. Talk about a breath of fresh air, this is a guy that absolutely could not handle missing the playoffs two years in a row. Long time Angels fans have been conditioned to survive at least 16 consecutive years with no post-season baseball.
- I love it when teams add to their strengths. Everyone talks about balance, and sure it's important, but the Wilson signing reminds me a lot of the Braves in the 1992 off-season. Everybody expected the Braves, coming off two straight WS losses, to go after free agent Barry Bonds. He was a perfect fit, and would have given them an outfield of Bonds, Otis Nixon, and David Justice. Instead, the team with the best pitching staff in baseball at the time signed reigning Cy Young Award winner Greg Maddux. They took their best part and made it better. All that did was get them into the playoffs for the next decade.
- Really fun day to be an Angels fan coming off the disappointments of the Teixeira and Crawford misses.
Showing posts with label MLB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MLB. Show all posts
Thursday, December 08, 2011
Pujols and Wilson and Hawkins, oh my !
Here are some quick thoughts on the Angels' flurry of activity in the last 48 hours.
Labels:
Albert Pujols,
Angels,
CJ Wilson,
Jerry DiPoto,
Latroy Hawkins,
MLB
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
G.A.
Maybe it was the inevitability of the thing, or maybe I've just consumed a few thousand gallons of alcohol since it happened, but I don't recall the level of reaction in the Halosphere, such as it was, to Tim Salmon's retirement as there has been to Garret Anderson's retirement. Maybe it's because there's been a lot of coverage at the OC Register's excellent blog. That's not a criticism, it's just an observation.
Anyway, the day has finally arrived for GA to hang 'em up, and that makes this as good a time as any to look back at the career of the man who a) scored the winning run in the most important inning in Angels history, and b) drove in the winnning runs in the most important game in Angels history.
He burst onto the scene in 1995, posting what would be the third best OPS+ of his career in 106 games, and was one of the three young outfielders that pushed the '95 Angels out to the huge lead that they would piss away in August and September, a collapse that probably cost him the rookie of the year. After a few less than mediocre years, he put up huge counting stats in 2000, a year in which four Angels hit more than 35 home runs (Anderson had 35 and 107 RBIs). He put up arguably his best all around year in 2002 with 29 homers and a monstrous 56 doubles. He'd put up his best OPS+ in 2003, but the career slide started the next year, with a bit of a blip in 2007.
As an Angels fan, there are a few GA moments I'll never forget:
But when you really compare their careers, a couple things jump out at me. Salmon's career OPS+ is 128 to GA's 102, primarily a function of the fact in 2,000 fewer plate appearances, Salmon drew over twice as many walks. Despite a career batting average that was 10 points lower, Salmon finished with an OBP 60 points higher, and he slugged almost 40 points higher. He also never put up the sub-mediocre years that Anderson did. Salmon had one full season with an OPS+ below 100, and that was his "cliff" year in 2001, when his OPS+ slid to 98. Anderson had five Angels seasons lower than 98, another at 99, and another four below 110, which adjusted for position is pretty average. Put simply, despite the counting stats (again, GA had nearly 2,000 more plate appearances as an Angel) Salmon was simply the better hitter.
But I should point out that in those prime years, Anderson spent a lot of his time hitting fifth and sixth behind Glaus, Salmon, and Mo Vaughn. I'm not going to argue that GA could have been a great OBP guy if the situation called for it. The guy was a swinger, and he put the ball in play ALL THE TIME. If you were hitting sixth for the Angels in the early part of the aughts, you were hitting behind relatively high OBP guys like Salmon, Glaus, Vaughn, Fullmer... Who exactly are you trying to get on base for? Orlando Palmeiro? The Ben(j)gies? Anyway.
In addition to the numbers, Tim Salmon remains the Angels only rookie of the year, and he did so by "winning from the front" so to speak. He was the odds on favorite to win the ROY before the 1993 season started, and won the award with relative ease. He was the savior that actually delivered the franchise to the promised land (with a heck of a lot of help), and like Anderson, Salmon made HUGE contributions in the 2002 playoff run. One would not have to create an logical loop to make the case that Tim Salmon is an Angel legend, while Anderson is merely an Angel hall-of-famer.
Maybe more importantly, regardless of whether the perception equals reality (I believe it does NOT), Anderson was perceived as less of a competitor. Tim Salmon was perceived as the "run through walls" competitor, while GA was content with good enough. I think this is BS, and I think when things aren't going well, fans need to find a scapegoat. GA was an easy scapegoat.
For me, the enduring GA memory will always be his interview with Steve Lyons on the Angel Stadium field after game seven of the 2002 World Series. For a guy who didn't show a lot of emotion, GA flashed one of the best smiles I've ever seen, the joy of the moment evident in his voice. This was a man who had worked hard toward a goal, who had suffered through that 1995 collapse, who had failed to reach his potential until that season, and he and his teammates had finally reached the mountaintop, thanks in large part to his heroics. GA will never be considered the greatest Angel, regardless of the record books, but he'll always be a cornerstone of my favorite team.
Anyway, the day has finally arrived for GA to hang 'em up, and that makes this as good a time as any to look back at the career of the man who a) scored the winning run in the most important inning in Angels history, and b) drove in the winnning runs in the most important game in Angels history.
He burst onto the scene in 1995, posting what would be the third best OPS+ of his career in 106 games, and was one of the three young outfielders that pushed the '95 Angels out to the huge lead that they would piss away in August and September, a collapse that probably cost him the rookie of the year. After a few less than mediocre years, he put up huge counting stats in 2000, a year in which four Angels hit more than 35 home runs (Anderson had 35 and 107 RBIs). He put up arguably his best all around year in 2002 with 29 homers and a monstrous 56 doubles. He'd put up his best OPS+ in 2003, but the career slide started the next year, with a bit of a blip in 2007.
As an Angels fan, there are a few GA moments I'll never forget:
- Game two of the 2002 ALDS against the Yankees. Needing a win after dropping game one, the Angels went into the 8th inning trailing 5-4. With GA leading off the inning, Orlando Hernandez hung one, and I can still see him going into his windup and hearing Joe Buck say "The Angels trail by one.....the Angels have tied this game". Troy Glaus would follow with the second of back to back homers, the Angels would go on to win the game and series.
- Game three of the 2002 ALCS against the Twins. The Angels split in Minnesota and came home hoping to take control of the series. Again, leading off, GA's second inning home run stood as the Angels' only marker until Troy Glaus' game winner in the 8th.
- Game six of the 2002 World Series. Following Darin Erstad's home run and Tim Salmon's grossly underrated single, GA's bloop down the left field line eluded Barry Bonds. Heads up base running by Chone Figgins and GA put the winning run on second base, shortly before Troy Glaus' double cashed them in, setting up game seven's heroics.
- Game seven of the 2002 World Series. Anderson's bases loaded double broke a 1-1 tie, cashing in all three baserunners, and provided the margin for the greatest win in Angels history.
- The 2003 All-Star Game. This was a special couple of days for me as an Angels fan living in Chicago. It's the only ASG I've ever attended. GA won the home run derby, and was the very model of efficiency. Albert Pujols wowed the crowed with his monster shots, but GA got the job done by depositing pitch after pitch in the first row, second row, just enough to clear the wall in right center field. He followed up that performance with an ASG MVP, finishing the game, the first one that "counted", with a homer and a double.
But when you really compare their careers, a couple things jump out at me. Salmon's career OPS+ is 128 to GA's 102, primarily a function of the fact in 2,000 fewer plate appearances, Salmon drew over twice as many walks. Despite a career batting average that was 10 points lower, Salmon finished with an OBP 60 points higher, and he slugged almost 40 points higher. He also never put up the sub-mediocre years that Anderson did. Salmon had one full season with an OPS+ below 100, and that was his "cliff" year in 2001, when his OPS+ slid to 98. Anderson had five Angels seasons lower than 98, another at 99, and another four below 110, which adjusted for position is pretty average. Put simply, despite the counting stats (again, GA had nearly 2,000 more plate appearances as an Angel) Salmon was simply the better hitter.
But I should point out that in those prime years, Anderson spent a lot of his time hitting fifth and sixth behind Glaus, Salmon, and Mo Vaughn. I'm not going to argue that GA could have been a great OBP guy if the situation called for it. The guy was a swinger, and he put the ball in play ALL THE TIME. If you were hitting sixth for the Angels in the early part of the aughts, you were hitting behind relatively high OBP guys like Salmon, Glaus, Vaughn, Fullmer... Who exactly are you trying to get on base for? Orlando Palmeiro? The Ben(j)gies? Anyway.
In addition to the numbers, Tim Salmon remains the Angels only rookie of the year, and he did so by "winning from the front" so to speak. He was the odds on favorite to win the ROY before the 1993 season started, and won the award with relative ease. He was the savior that actually delivered the franchise to the promised land (with a heck of a lot of help), and like Anderson, Salmon made HUGE contributions in the 2002 playoff run. One would not have to create an logical loop to make the case that Tim Salmon is an Angel legend, while Anderson is merely an Angel hall-of-famer.
Maybe more importantly, regardless of whether the perception equals reality (I believe it does NOT), Anderson was perceived as less of a competitor. Tim Salmon was perceived as the "run through walls" competitor, while GA was content with good enough. I think this is BS, and I think when things aren't going well, fans need to find a scapegoat. GA was an easy scapegoat.
For me, the enduring GA memory will always be his interview with Steve Lyons on the Angel Stadium field after game seven of the 2002 World Series. For a guy who didn't show a lot of emotion, GA flashed one of the best smiles I've ever seen, the joy of the moment evident in his voice. This was a man who had worked hard toward a goal, who had suffered through that 1995 collapse, who had failed to reach his potential until that season, and he and his teammates had finally reached the mountaintop, thanks in large part to his heroics. GA will never be considered the greatest Angel, regardless of the record books, but he'll always be a cornerstone of my favorite team.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Vernon
We've all read a lot in the last few days about the Vernon Wells trade, and now that Mike Napoli has ended up with the rival Rangers, things break down as such:
Angels get Vernon Wells and will owe him roughly $20MM per over the next four years to probably play left field. They lose Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera, both defensive butchers with power bats and the ability to draw a walk.
Blue Jays get Juan Rivera and Frank Francisco in exchange for getting someone to take Wells' contract off their hands.
Rangers get Napoli and lose Francisco.
So what does it mean for each team? I'm going to speculate that everyone involved is going to play, though I honestly don't know what the Jays plan to do with Rivera, or what the Rangers plan to do with Napoli.
The Blue Jays don't really lose a whole lot on offense, the lose a bit of outfield defense, and they continue to stock their bullpen. Of course, this all the rearranging of deck chairs. Their largest hope is that they might be able to catch the Rays for third place. Honestly, I don't even think Blue Jays fans care what they do. They're like the kid who gets a bunch of new pogs, when everyone knows he's going to lose them all to the school bully within a week. It's fun to get new stuff, then reality sets in.
The Rangers cruised into the playoffs and almost won a World Series last year all while getting about about a 60 OPS+ out of their catchers. Napoli is a good bet to almost double that. Their bullpen will take a hit, but it probably won't be bad enough to lose the division.
Which brings us to the Angels. I'm going to be honest, I don't think this makes the 2011 Angels any worse, and probably makes them a bit better on the field. I believe that to be true because Mike Scioscia has an unhealthy affection for catcher's ERA. It's my belief that Napoli would not have seen a ton of at bats this year, barring injury. In that sense, I truly believe that Napoli's value to the Angels does not represent his true value. And the idea that they didn't get equal value from an objective standpoint is meaningless.
Wells is a real wild card. He's been excellent in even numbered years, horrible in odd numbered years. And we're coming up on the 2011 season. We don't know which Wells we're going to get. If we get last year's model, it's an upgrade offensively and defensively. Enough of an upgrade that they can afford to let Bourjos develop offensively while providing excellent defense.
I can even begin to figure out what this means for the next few years. I'm not sure the Angels have done what they've been expected to do in off-season since Arte Moreno bought the team. But for 2011, they've probably improved the bullpen, the outfield defense, and the offense (just a smidge), but that's based on Morales' return and my belief that Napoli's bat would not have been in the lineup every day. Unfortunately, they probably didn't improve enough to to catch the Rangers even IF they hadn't done anything this off-season. With the move the Rangers have made, Angels fans may as well be Blue Jays fans this season.
And finally, what it is about Matt Welch and Vernon? Be it the player, or the small in size but huge in corruption town in SoCal, I'm thinking he just really likes the sound of the word "Vernon".
Angels get Vernon Wells and will owe him roughly $20MM per over the next four years to probably play left field. They lose Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera, both defensive butchers with power bats and the ability to draw a walk.
Blue Jays get Juan Rivera and Frank Francisco in exchange for getting someone to take Wells' contract off their hands.
Rangers get Napoli and lose Francisco.
So what does it mean for each team? I'm going to speculate that everyone involved is going to play, though I honestly don't know what the Jays plan to do with Rivera, or what the Rangers plan to do with Napoli.
The Blue Jays don't really lose a whole lot on offense, the lose a bit of outfield defense, and they continue to stock their bullpen. Of course, this all the rearranging of deck chairs. Their largest hope is that they might be able to catch the Rays for third place. Honestly, I don't even think Blue Jays fans care what they do. They're like the kid who gets a bunch of new pogs, when everyone knows he's going to lose them all to the school bully within a week. It's fun to get new stuff, then reality sets in.
The Rangers cruised into the playoffs and almost won a World Series last year all while getting about about a 60 OPS+ out of their catchers. Napoli is a good bet to almost double that. Their bullpen will take a hit, but it probably won't be bad enough to lose the division.
Which brings us to the Angels. I'm going to be honest, I don't think this makes the 2011 Angels any worse, and probably makes them a bit better on the field. I believe that to be true because Mike Scioscia has an unhealthy affection for catcher's ERA. It's my belief that Napoli would not have seen a ton of at bats this year, barring injury. In that sense, I truly believe that Napoli's value to the Angels does not represent his true value. And the idea that they didn't get equal value from an objective standpoint is meaningless.
Wells is a real wild card. He's been excellent in even numbered years, horrible in odd numbered years. And we're coming up on the 2011 season. We don't know which Wells we're going to get. If we get last year's model, it's an upgrade offensively and defensively. Enough of an upgrade that they can afford to let Bourjos develop offensively while providing excellent defense.
I can even begin to figure out what this means for the next few years. I'm not sure the Angels have done what they've been expected to do in off-season since Arte Moreno bought the team. But for 2011, they've probably improved the bullpen, the outfield defense, and the offense (just a smidge), but that's based on Morales' return and my belief that Napoli's bat would not have been in the lineup every day. Unfortunately, they probably didn't improve enough to to catch the Rangers even IF they hadn't done anything this off-season. With the move the Rangers have made, Angels fans may as well be Blue Jays fans this season.
And finally, what it is about Matt Welch and Vernon? Be it the player, or the small in size but huge in corruption town in SoCal, I'm thinking he just really likes the sound of the word "Vernon".
Friday, April 23, 2010
In-Season Milestones
Apparently the Angels had so much fun finally getting over .500 that they decided to head back under .500 just so they could do it again.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Yes, I'm off the ledge (but still at the window)
Not a bad sports weekend. The Angels swept the Blue Jays, and the Kings evened up the series with Vancouver, grabbing home ice in the process.
Angels
Three games of quality pitching and timely hitting. They picked up late runs in every ballgame, and nearly all proved necessary. Of the sixteen runs the Angels scored over the weekend, seven game in the eighth and ninth innings. Toronto picked up six runs in those same innings, so the Angels effectively maintained the status quo, and held on to leads they had earned earlier in those ballgames.
The starting pitching was phenomenal. All three starters (Weaver, Saunders, and Santana) worked deep into their respective starts, and Saunders and Santana finally gave us a glimpse of the type of run prevention we were hoping for heading into the season. Jered Weaver continued to pitch like an ace, allowing two runs (both on solo homers) in seven innings while striking out eight (he's third in the AL with 21 strikeouts). Joe Saunders did Weaver one better by working eight innings and only two runs, neither earned. His line would have looked better, and he may have had the strength for a ninth inning, if not for a nightmare third inning from Brandon Wood, who misplayed one ball into a double, then committed errors on back to back grounders, leading to the Jays' two runs. Not satisfied with an eight inning effort, Ervin Santana went the distance in his start, allowing only a solo home run to Adam Lind with two outs in the ninth. Adding to the optimism were two perfect innings from Fernando Rodney, filling in at the closer spot for the injured Brian Fuentes.
Mike Scioscia used the three games on turf to get some rest for a few guys, which meant that only Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick, Juan Rivera, Hideki Matsui, and Kendry Morales started all three games. But Scioscia made the right calls, as four of those guys collected hits in each game. Morales, Kendrick, and Rivera picked up home runs along the way.
In all, it the combination of timely hitting and quality starting pitching that we expected to see going into the season. The Angels now sit in second place, just two and a half games behind surprising Oakland, who got to beat up on the awful Baltimore Orioles for a few games. Let's hope the Angels can keep things rolling against Detroit.
Kings
I can't express with words how much I've missed actually caring about playoff hockey. I just love the atmosphere, and it gets better in overtime. I was literally at the edge of my seat on Saturday night, knowing that a bounce either way could be the difference between the edge of hopelessness and home ice advantage. Unlucky in game one, the Kings took advantage of good fortune in game two, scoring twice on the power play, the second goal coming in overtime, to send the series back to LA all tied at one.
I can't say the Kings have been the better team so far. They were handled pretty well in game one, but Jonathan Quick, who looks to have rebounded (no pun intended) from his late season slump, kept the Kings in the game until Randy Jones turnover in OT led to the game ending goal. In game two, Vancouver dominated the first period, but the Kings used the power play to spring to life, and a little luck to tie the game. Anze Kopitar made a tremendous defensive play to save a goal, picked up the loose puck on the left wing boards, and took advantage of Sammy Salo's stumble to start a three on one. Wayne Simmonds finished the play beautifully for a 2-2 tie.
The kids came through in overtime. Jack Johnson fed the puck to Drew Doughty who slid a cross-ice pass to Anze Kopitar on the right wing half boards. Kopitar collected the rebound of his own shot and bounced it off of Roberto Luongo for the game winner. I'm pretty sure I either woke up or startled my neighbors with my yell as I saw the puck go in.
So far, the Kings look like they're getting the hang of playoff hockey, while Vancouver appears to filled with the largest collection of whiners I've ever seen. Can't wait for tonight's game.
Angels
Three games of quality pitching and timely hitting. They picked up late runs in every ballgame, and nearly all proved necessary. Of the sixteen runs the Angels scored over the weekend, seven game in the eighth and ninth innings. Toronto picked up six runs in those same innings, so the Angels effectively maintained the status quo, and held on to leads they had earned earlier in those ballgames.
The starting pitching was phenomenal. All three starters (Weaver, Saunders, and Santana) worked deep into their respective starts, and Saunders and Santana finally gave us a glimpse of the type of run prevention we were hoping for heading into the season. Jered Weaver continued to pitch like an ace, allowing two runs (both on solo homers) in seven innings while striking out eight (he's third in the AL with 21 strikeouts). Joe Saunders did Weaver one better by working eight innings and only two runs, neither earned. His line would have looked better, and he may have had the strength for a ninth inning, if not for a nightmare third inning from Brandon Wood, who misplayed one ball into a double, then committed errors on back to back grounders, leading to the Jays' two runs. Not satisfied with an eight inning effort, Ervin Santana went the distance in his start, allowing only a solo home run to Adam Lind with two outs in the ninth. Adding to the optimism were two perfect innings from Fernando Rodney, filling in at the closer spot for the injured Brian Fuentes.
Mike Scioscia used the three games on turf to get some rest for a few guys, which meant that only Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick, Juan Rivera, Hideki Matsui, and Kendry Morales started all three games. But Scioscia made the right calls, as four of those guys collected hits in each game. Morales, Kendrick, and Rivera picked up home runs along the way.
In all, it the combination of timely hitting and quality starting pitching that we expected to see going into the season. The Angels now sit in second place, just two and a half games behind surprising Oakland, who got to beat up on the awful Baltimore Orioles for a few games. Let's hope the Angels can keep things rolling against Detroit.
Kings
I can't express with words how much I've missed actually caring about playoff hockey. I just love the atmosphere, and it gets better in overtime. I was literally at the edge of my seat on Saturday night, knowing that a bounce either way could be the difference between the edge of hopelessness and home ice advantage. Unlucky in game one, the Kings took advantage of good fortune in game two, scoring twice on the power play, the second goal coming in overtime, to send the series back to LA all tied at one.
I can't say the Kings have been the better team so far. They were handled pretty well in game one, but Jonathan Quick, who looks to have rebounded (no pun intended) from his late season slump, kept the Kings in the game until Randy Jones turnover in OT led to the game ending goal. In game two, Vancouver dominated the first period, but the Kings used the power play to spring to life, and a little luck to tie the game. Anze Kopitar made a tremendous defensive play to save a goal, picked up the loose puck on the left wing boards, and took advantage of Sammy Salo's stumble to start a three on one. Wayne Simmonds finished the play beautifully for a 2-2 tie.
The kids came through in overtime. Jack Johnson fed the puck to Drew Doughty who slid a cross-ice pass to Anze Kopitar on the right wing half boards. Kopitar collected the rebound of his own shot and bounced it off of Roberto Luongo for the game winner. I'm pretty sure I either woke up or startled my neighbors with my yell as I saw the puck go in.
So far, the Kings look like they're getting the hang of playoff hockey, while Vancouver appears to filled with the largest collection of whiners I've ever seen. Can't wait for tonight's game.
Friday, April 16, 2010
That's more like it
Thank the freaking Lord for Jered Weaver. I think we've been waiting for Lil Weav to assume this role, but so far in three starts, he's been an ace. He's striking guys out. He's throwing strikes and working quickly. He's fun to watch, and he's easy to root for.
On the offensive side of the ball, things looked better tonight. Kendry hit #3. Every starter had a hit. Matsui and Hunter are off to good starts, and no one appears to be really struggling. Even Jeff Mathis is contributing.
I'm not off the ledge yet, but at least tonight was a nice surprise.
On the offensive side of the ball, things looked better tonight. Kendry hit #3. Every starter had a hit. Matsui and Hunter are off to good starts, and no one appears to be really struggling. Even Jeff Mathis is contributing.
I'm not off the ledge yet, but at least tonight was a nice surprise.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Two and Six
In two weeks, after the Kings flame out of the playoffs, I guess I'll have to look forward to college football.
This team sucks.
This team sucks.
Monday, April 05, 2010
Opening Day
Finally, one of the greatest days of the year, and at least for today, one of the nicest days we've had in Chicago for a while. Opening day for the Sox and Indians should go off without a hitch.
But I'm not here to talk about the Sox. I said most of what I had to say about the Angels a couple months ago, and for what it's worth, I don't think any of my analysis has changed very much. I still really like their offense. They've got power potential at pretty much every spot in the order outside of the lead-off spot (and the catcher's spot when Mathis plays). The outfield is old, and that's always a concern, since none of us can tell when any of those guys are going to go into a serious decline phase. They lose Figgins' OBP, but they hopefully make up for that a bit in Brandon Wood's power. I just hope the organization is patient with him, and that they leave him in the lineup to take his lumps so long as he is providing good defense at third base.
The starting pitching staff is solid 1-5, but there's not a ton of depth behind them. Of course, there's almost no team in baseball that has a great deal of depth beyond their starting four, let alone five. In a way, it almost makes the Angels more vulnerable to injury. Most teams are already throwing out junk for a fifth starter. If the Angels lose their fifth starter, they lose a legit starter, as opposed to a team that just replaces junk with junk. Still, I'd rather be in the Angels' position.
The bullpen looks to be deep, but not lights out dominant at any role. Fuentes will still drive us crazy. Shields will still have his moments where he can't seem to find the strike zone. Who knows what Rodney is going to bring. But I'm looking forward to another year of (hopefully) growth from Jepsen and Bulger. And we'll just have to wait and see if Stokes can be any type of replacement for Darren Oliver, even though the decision to not offer arbitration to Oliver still baffles me.
The Rangers and Mariners are improved, and every season is, to some extent, a crapshoot, but I just don't see the rush to crown either of those franchises the best in the west this year. I think a lot of the media driven hype around those clubs is a desire to see something different. On paper, the Angels are still the best team in the AL West. You never know what's going to happen when it comes to injuries, and the Angels are just as vulnerable to those as anyone, but all things being equal, the Angels will win the AL West for the fourth straight time this year.
Time to play ball.
But I'm not here to talk about the Sox. I said most of what I had to say about the Angels a couple months ago, and for what it's worth, I don't think any of my analysis has changed very much. I still really like their offense. They've got power potential at pretty much every spot in the order outside of the lead-off spot (and the catcher's spot when Mathis plays). The outfield is old, and that's always a concern, since none of us can tell when any of those guys are going to go into a serious decline phase. They lose Figgins' OBP, but they hopefully make up for that a bit in Brandon Wood's power. I just hope the organization is patient with him, and that they leave him in the lineup to take his lumps so long as he is providing good defense at third base.
The starting pitching staff is solid 1-5, but there's not a ton of depth behind them. Of course, there's almost no team in baseball that has a great deal of depth beyond their starting four, let alone five. In a way, it almost makes the Angels more vulnerable to injury. Most teams are already throwing out junk for a fifth starter. If the Angels lose their fifth starter, they lose a legit starter, as opposed to a team that just replaces junk with junk. Still, I'd rather be in the Angels' position.
The bullpen looks to be deep, but not lights out dominant at any role. Fuentes will still drive us crazy. Shields will still have his moments where he can't seem to find the strike zone. Who knows what Rodney is going to bring. But I'm looking forward to another year of (hopefully) growth from Jepsen and Bulger. And we'll just have to wait and see if Stokes can be any type of replacement for Darren Oliver, even though the decision to not offer arbitration to Oliver still baffles me.
The Rangers and Mariners are improved, and every season is, to some extent, a crapshoot, but I just don't see the rush to crown either of those franchises the best in the west this year. I think a lot of the media driven hype around those clubs is a desire to see something different. On paper, the Angels are still the best team in the AL West. You never know what's going to happen when it comes to injuries, and the Angels are just as vulnerable to those as anyone, but all things being equal, the Angels will win the AL West for the fourth straight time this year.
Time to play ball.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Getting back into baseball
The Olympics are in full swing, and after last night's epic victory over Canada, I'm pretty pumped for the medal round, but Spring Training is underway, and it's time to start thinking about baseball. The other day a friend asked me the following question:
Are you seeing tough times for the Angels this year? Seems like everyone else is improving and you guys are getting worse. I think you're potentially in the best division in baseball. Even better than the AL East.And here's my response:
Health is the one thing I can’t account for. But if they’re healthy, their starting pitching is better, their relief is better, their offense should be better or just as good at every position except third base, where it actually may end up being better if Wood can settle into an everyday role instead of being jerked around. So no, I don’t see tough times. Now they may not win it, because the division is better, but I still think they’ll be very good.Obviously the last comment is in jest, but I really have a quiet confidence about the Angels this season. I think they'll surprise people, and there's no reason a successful season should come as a surprise. This is a good baseball team.
They have Kazmir for a full season, and he was nails down the stretch last year. Weaver had an excellent year. Saunders was great other than the month and a half he tried to pitch though injury. When he finally went on the DL and came back healthy, he was lights out. Ervin Santana got messed up, got sent down, got his head together, and had a 3.09 ERA in the last two months. And Piniero is their fifth, which isn’t too bad for a fifth starter. They get Shields back in the pen, and add Rodney, who isn’t great, but should help.
Morales and Aybar had breakthrough years. I figure much of the same for Hunter, Rivera, and Abreu. Kendrick went the Ervin Santana route, came back up and put up a 351/387/532 line over the last three months, and had a solid post-season.
Figgins is a loss, but they might make that up. Lackey had an OK year, but it was nothing special. 118 ERA+, which doesn’t factor in the 60 or so innings that were replaced by guys like Shane Loux when he spent the first month and a half on the DL. I love his BR sponsor, by the way.
So I think rumors of their demise are a little pre-mature. PECOTA now has them at 80 wins (after they fixed all the things they screwed up). Based on how accurate PECOTA usually ends up in projecting the Angels, I figure that makes them good for about 135 wins.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Burned By the Hot Stove?
Let's take stock of what we've seen from the Angels so far this off-season, both positive and negative:
The only one that surprised me somewhat was Dustin Mosely, especially with the impending loss of Lackey at the time. He was capable, when healthy, of providing league average innings, and I figured that would make him at least a candidate in spring training for a fifth starter job, now that one appears available. But there may be more to his injury than we know, and with Matt Palmer, Trevor Bell, Sean O'Sullivan, and possibly Trevor Reckling in the mix, I'm assuming the Angels were comfortable with their options.
Matt Brown looked like a AAAA type that could take over the Robb Quinlan role, but those guys aren't particularly hard to come by. Not a back-breaking loss.
Jose Arredondo looked like he had figured things out in 2008 when he tossed 61 innings with an ERA of 1.62. Arm problems held him back in 2009, and he was set to undergo Tommy John surgery in the off-season. But his real problem was that he never got his head screwed on straight. Asked to go to Arizona to stay fresh in case he was needed as a post-season replacement, he defied the organization and went home to the Dominican, effectively punching his ticket out of Anaheim. All in all, these non-tenders, as well as the loss of Escobar, will have a negligible effect on the 2010 Angels.
Chone Figgins
I can't say I'm surprised by Figgins decision to sign elsewhere, and Seattle is a logical destination, what with the loss of Adrian Beltre. It will be difficult to see Figgins in another uniform, especially one within the division, but this was the right move by both teams. From Figgins' standpoint, he needed to take the best deal he could get, and while the Angels would have taken him back at their price, he did better than he would have done in Anaheim. When he was a pinch runner in 2002, I doubt too many of us thought that we'd get production from him that we saw over his Angels career. But he's not getting any younger, his stolen base success was down last year, and honestly, he's probably more valuable as a guy who plays every day, but plays three positions per week. The Mariners won't use him that way (the Angels wouldn't either). We'll have to wait and see if his 2009 was a case of a guy exploding in a contract year. I don't think it was, actually. I think he'll have a couple really good seasons in Seattle, then decline. I think it's a good deal for both player and team.
But the Angels have got to do something with Brandon Wood, and they appear ready to give him the shot that he's earned in AAA. Wood hasn't shown much at the major league level, but he's never been in a sink or swim situation. He was either up for the purpose of giving guys random days off, or because injuries necessitated it. His major league power numbers through his age aren't all that different from Kendry Morales, and if he continues to improve his discipline, even a little bit, he can be a productive power hitter who plays very good defense at third base. I think he got screwed by the organization in some ways last year, and it took him a while to get it rolling, but if he puts up another spring like he did in 2009, there will be no question that the job is his, and we'll finally see if he's been worth waiting for. It will be worth it for the closure alone.
John Lackey
Tony Granato played six seasons for the Los Angels Kings. He went to a Stanley Cup finals with the Kings. His gritty style and attitude made him a fan favorite of Kings fans for his entire tenure in L.A. Kings fans stuck by him when he took a two handed slash to the head of Neil Wilkinson. We stuck by him when he missed a lot of time due to a brain tumor. To this day, I remember being at a Kings game while he was recovering, and when they flashed his picture on the jumbotron, everyone in the crowd gave him a standing ovation. Then, in 1996, he turned down a comparable offer from the Kings to sign with the San Jose Sharks, arguably my most hated franchise at the time (still is, really, tied with the Ducks). To this day, I hate Tony Granato. That's how I feel about John Lackey.
My feelings regarding Lackey are almost completely opposite to those of Figgins. Granted, he took a lot more money than the Angels were probably willing to offer, and more money than he's worth, but I have nothing but antipathy for players who leave as free agents and sign with their longtime fanbase's most hated franchise (which I think the Red Sox are for Angels fans). I may be rationalizing, but over the last couple years, I don't think Lackey was an Angels warrior. I think he was a warrior who happened to pitch for the Angels, but I don't think he had much, if any, loyalty towards the franchise. He badmouthed his teammates at times, he had issues with his manager, and I think we all knew that when he blew up at Scioscia in the ALCS, he had thrown his last pitch as an Angel.
I will not root for John Lackey the way I rooted for Garret Anderson in Atlanta. I will not crack a tiny smile when I see that he's had a good performance, like I will for Chone Figgins. I will not celebrate a John Lackey day at Anaheim Stadium like I did for Chuck Finley. I won't wish him any physical harm (then again, I won't shed any tears if he shreds his elbow), but I will root for him to get lit up every single time he takes the mound, and I would love to see "Red Sox Nation" turn on him 10 starts into his Red Sox career. His is this decade's Jim Edmonds in terms of how much I'll root for him to fail (and hopefully he won't still succeed like Edmonds did).
Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu
The Abreu deal is a month old, and we already know what he bring to the table. I don't have much to disagree with there, and all I would say is that I hope he takes Erick Aybar under his wing and teaches him to be patient and the advantages that come from it. I think Aybar matured a lot this season, and I think with another year studying under Abreu, if he can learn to take a few more walks, he could replace Chone Figgins as a quality lead-off hitter.
I like the Matsui deal as well, though it likely means that Vladimir Guerrero is done as an Angel. It's only one year, and it's not for very much money. When it comes to free agent deals gone bad, it's almost never the dollars that kill a team, it's the years. Gary Matthews would have been palatable (though still overpaid) at $10MM per for two years. It's the third, fourth, and fifth years that made that deal awful. Even if Matsui blows up in the Angels' faces, it's just a minor blemish. He only missed 20 games last year, and had OPS+ of 131 with 28 homers. Those number are almost identical to Vlad's 2008. I'll gladly take that for $6.5MM for one year.
The Future
So where do the Angels go from here? They'll likely make some sort of play for another pitcher, or Jason Bay, or both. Hopefully the rumored deal of Juan Rivera for Derek Lowe is not close to reality, as it would be a horrible deal for the Angels. Lowe had a very subpar season last year, with his peripherals down across the board. You could expect a bounce back year from a 31 or 32 year old, but I wouldn't expect one from a 37 year old. Worse yet, he's got three years at $15MM per left on his deal. That's not the type of acquisition we've seen Tony Reagins go in for (see Abreu and Matsui). Reagins' only big splash has been for Torii Hunter, younger and more productive than Lowe. Honestly, I'm more confident handing the fifth starter job over to Matt Palmer than I am giving it to Derek Lowe.
So the starting staff, assuming no major injuries, looks to be Weaver, Saunders, Kazmir, Santana, and one of Palmer, O'Sullivan, Reckling, or Bell. I'd expect Saunders to put together a better overall season. Weaver may regress a bit, but not much. Kazmir will be an upgrade over what they got from the third spot last year, and Santana looks like he has regained his form. I honestly don't see a major drop off. If Shields can come back healthy, the bullpen won't be any worse (not a very high bar).
I see the offense as probably being down a bit. The projectors will say that Kendry Morales will regress, but I see him as just as likely to improve on last season, and if I were a betting man, I'd bet on similar production to what he did in 2009. I have pretty high hopes for Kendrick. I see Aybar dropping the average a bit, but hopefully picking up a few walks to balance out the OBP. Wood, obviously, is a question mark. Angel fans have reason to be optimistic after seeing what Morales could do with a full season of at bats, but I wouldn't pencil the kid in for a .300 average and 30 homers. I'll be happy if he just holds down the starting job for the whole year. In the outfield, I think we can expect similar production to what we saw last year, with maybe more from Matsui at the DH than we got out of Vlad.
If the Angels make no more moves right now, I think they'll be picked second by most of the media, with the Mariners looking like the trendy pick. And as always, it's baseball, so anything can happen. Guys blow up, guys fall off cliffs, and guys get hurt. So I think it's safe to say that the division is wide open, but I still expect (however irrationally) the Angels to win it.
It's a long way to April, though, and what happens between now and then could make this entire analysis moot.
- Matt Brown, Jose Arredondo, and Dustin Mosely were non-tendered.
- Kelvim Escobar signed a minor league deal elsewhere.
- Chone Figgins signed with the Mariners.
- John Lackey signed with the Red Sox.
- The Angels re-upped with Bobby Abreu for two more seasons.
- The Angels signed Hideki Matsui for one year at a decent number.
The only one that surprised me somewhat was Dustin Mosely, especially with the impending loss of Lackey at the time. He was capable, when healthy, of providing league average innings, and I figured that would make him at least a candidate in spring training for a fifth starter job, now that one appears available. But there may be more to his injury than we know, and with Matt Palmer, Trevor Bell, Sean O'Sullivan, and possibly Trevor Reckling in the mix, I'm assuming the Angels were comfortable with their options.
Matt Brown looked like a AAAA type that could take over the Robb Quinlan role, but those guys aren't particularly hard to come by. Not a back-breaking loss.
Jose Arredondo looked like he had figured things out in 2008 when he tossed 61 innings with an ERA of 1.62. Arm problems held him back in 2009, and he was set to undergo Tommy John surgery in the off-season. But his real problem was that he never got his head screwed on straight. Asked to go to Arizona to stay fresh in case he was needed as a post-season replacement, he defied the organization and went home to the Dominican, effectively punching his ticket out of Anaheim. All in all, these non-tenders, as well as the loss of Escobar, will have a negligible effect on the 2010 Angels.
Chone Figgins
I can't say I'm surprised by Figgins decision to sign elsewhere, and Seattle is a logical destination, what with the loss of Adrian Beltre. It will be difficult to see Figgins in another uniform, especially one within the division, but this was the right move by both teams. From Figgins' standpoint, he needed to take the best deal he could get, and while the Angels would have taken him back at their price, he did better than he would have done in Anaheim. When he was a pinch runner in 2002, I doubt too many of us thought that we'd get production from him that we saw over his Angels career. But he's not getting any younger, his stolen base success was down last year, and honestly, he's probably more valuable as a guy who plays every day, but plays three positions per week. The Mariners won't use him that way (the Angels wouldn't either). We'll have to wait and see if his 2009 was a case of a guy exploding in a contract year. I don't think it was, actually. I think he'll have a couple really good seasons in Seattle, then decline. I think it's a good deal for both player and team.
But the Angels have got to do something with Brandon Wood, and they appear ready to give him the shot that he's earned in AAA. Wood hasn't shown much at the major league level, but he's never been in a sink or swim situation. He was either up for the purpose of giving guys random days off, or because injuries necessitated it. His major league power numbers through his age aren't all that different from Kendry Morales, and if he continues to improve his discipline, even a little bit, he can be a productive power hitter who plays very good defense at third base. I think he got screwed by the organization in some ways last year, and it took him a while to get it rolling, but if he puts up another spring like he did in 2009, there will be no question that the job is his, and we'll finally see if he's been worth waiting for. It will be worth it for the closure alone.
John Lackey
Tony Granato played six seasons for the Los Angels Kings. He went to a Stanley Cup finals with the Kings. His gritty style and attitude made him a fan favorite of Kings fans for his entire tenure in L.A. Kings fans stuck by him when he took a two handed slash to the head of Neil Wilkinson. We stuck by him when he missed a lot of time due to a brain tumor. To this day, I remember being at a Kings game while he was recovering, and when they flashed his picture on the jumbotron, everyone in the crowd gave him a standing ovation. Then, in 1996, he turned down a comparable offer from the Kings to sign with the San Jose Sharks, arguably my most hated franchise at the time (still is, really, tied with the Ducks). To this day, I hate Tony Granato. That's how I feel about John Lackey.
My feelings regarding Lackey are almost completely opposite to those of Figgins. Granted, he took a lot more money than the Angels were probably willing to offer, and more money than he's worth, but I have nothing but antipathy for players who leave as free agents and sign with their longtime fanbase's most hated franchise (which I think the Red Sox are for Angels fans). I may be rationalizing, but over the last couple years, I don't think Lackey was an Angels warrior. I think he was a warrior who happened to pitch for the Angels, but I don't think he had much, if any, loyalty towards the franchise. He badmouthed his teammates at times, he had issues with his manager, and I think we all knew that when he blew up at Scioscia in the ALCS, he had thrown his last pitch as an Angel.
I will not root for John Lackey the way I rooted for Garret Anderson in Atlanta. I will not crack a tiny smile when I see that he's had a good performance, like I will for Chone Figgins. I will not celebrate a John Lackey day at Anaheim Stadium like I did for Chuck Finley. I won't wish him any physical harm (then again, I won't shed any tears if he shreds his elbow), but I will root for him to get lit up every single time he takes the mound, and I would love to see "Red Sox Nation" turn on him 10 starts into his Red Sox career. His is this decade's Jim Edmonds in terms of how much I'll root for him to fail (and hopefully he won't still succeed like Edmonds did).
Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu
The Abreu deal is a month old, and we already know what he bring to the table. I don't have much to disagree with there, and all I would say is that I hope he takes Erick Aybar under his wing and teaches him to be patient and the advantages that come from it. I think Aybar matured a lot this season, and I think with another year studying under Abreu, if he can learn to take a few more walks, he could replace Chone Figgins as a quality lead-off hitter.
I like the Matsui deal as well, though it likely means that Vladimir Guerrero is done as an Angel. It's only one year, and it's not for very much money. When it comes to free agent deals gone bad, it's almost never the dollars that kill a team, it's the years. Gary Matthews would have been palatable (though still overpaid) at $10MM per for two years. It's the third, fourth, and fifth years that made that deal awful. Even if Matsui blows up in the Angels' faces, it's just a minor blemish. He only missed 20 games last year, and had OPS+ of 131 with 28 homers. Those number are almost identical to Vlad's 2008. I'll gladly take that for $6.5MM for one year.
The Future
So where do the Angels go from here? They'll likely make some sort of play for another pitcher, or Jason Bay, or both. Hopefully the rumored deal of Juan Rivera for Derek Lowe is not close to reality, as it would be a horrible deal for the Angels. Lowe had a very subpar season last year, with his peripherals down across the board. You could expect a bounce back year from a 31 or 32 year old, but I wouldn't expect one from a 37 year old. Worse yet, he's got three years at $15MM per left on his deal. That's not the type of acquisition we've seen Tony Reagins go in for (see Abreu and Matsui). Reagins' only big splash has been for Torii Hunter, younger and more productive than Lowe. Honestly, I'm more confident handing the fifth starter job over to Matt Palmer than I am giving it to Derek Lowe.
So the starting staff, assuming no major injuries, looks to be Weaver, Saunders, Kazmir, Santana, and one of Palmer, O'Sullivan, Reckling, or Bell. I'd expect Saunders to put together a better overall season. Weaver may regress a bit, but not much. Kazmir will be an upgrade over what they got from the third spot last year, and Santana looks like he has regained his form. I honestly don't see a major drop off. If Shields can come back healthy, the bullpen won't be any worse (not a very high bar).
I see the offense as probably being down a bit. The projectors will say that Kendry Morales will regress, but I see him as just as likely to improve on last season, and if I were a betting man, I'd bet on similar production to what he did in 2009. I have pretty high hopes for Kendrick. I see Aybar dropping the average a bit, but hopefully picking up a few walks to balance out the OBP. Wood, obviously, is a question mark. Angel fans have reason to be optimistic after seeing what Morales could do with a full season of at bats, but I wouldn't pencil the kid in for a .300 average and 30 homers. I'll be happy if he just holds down the starting job for the whole year. In the outfield, I think we can expect similar production to what we saw last year, with maybe more from Matsui at the DH than we got out of Vlad.
If the Angels make no more moves right now, I think they'll be picked second by most of the media, with the Mariners looking like the trendy pick. And as always, it's baseball, so anything can happen. Guys blow up, guys fall off cliffs, and guys get hurt. So I think it's safe to say that the division is wide open, but I still expect (however irrationally) the Angels to win it.
It's a long way to April, though, and what happens between now and then could make this entire analysis moot.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Angels Still Breathing: Angels 5; Yankees 4
With the season on the line, the Angels needed to find a way to get back into this series. Thanks to the bats of Vladimir Guerrero, Howie Kendrick, and Jeff Mathis, the Angels pulled the series back to 2-1 and look to get even tomorrow night.
Jered Weaver didn't bring his best stuff to the mound today. He got his pitch count up early, and his fastball was very hittable. He battled through five innings, allowing five hits and three walks while striking out four. He was undone by three solo homers, the first coming from Derek Jeter on the third pitch of the game. To Weaver's credit, he worked out of some serious jams. In the second and fourth innings, he found himself with two runners on and no one out, and was able to work out of it both times. He left after a fifth inning in which he allowed the third solo homer of his day, a fastball that was hit over the short wall in right field by Johnny Damon.
In the bottom of the fifth, Howie Kendrick started the comeback with a solo shot of his own off of Yankees starter Andy Pettite. Kendrick crushed an inside fastball into bullpen in left field. An inning later, Bobby Abreu worked a one out walk. With two outs, Vladimir Guerrero hit a towering shot over the wall in left field to tie the score at three.
The Angels took the lead an inning later. Yankees manager Joe Girardi brought in Joba Chamberlain to face the right handed Kendrick, and Howie greeted him with a triple off the wall in right field. Maicer Izturis hit for Mike Napoli and drove Kendrick home with a sacrifice fly. But the lead was short lived. Kevin Jepsen walked Hideki Matsui to lead off the eighth inning. Matsui was replaced by Brett Gardner, but he was erased on a caught stealing, the result of a pitch out and a great throw and tag by Jeff Mathis and Erick Aybar. It was in important play, because Jorge Posada followed it up with a solo home run to dead center field, tying the game.
The Angels missed a golden opportunity to take the lead in the bottom of the eighth inning. Bobby Abreu led the inning off with a double to wall in right center field. Abreu thought about stretching it to third, and by the team he decided to stay at second, it was too late. He had overrun the bag and was thrown out on a nice play by Derek Jeter, and a great cover of second base by Mark Teixeira.
The Angels threatened again in the 10th inning. Mathis led off with a double and was bunted to third by Aybar. All runners were safe when Mariano Rivera's throw to third went into left field, but an alert Johnny Damon backed the play up and held Mathis. Chone Figgins grounded to first, leaving Mathis on third. After Abreu was walked intentionally, Torii Hunter hit a sharp grounder to Teixeira, who threw to the plate for the second out. Guerrero grounded out to first to end the inning.
Ervin Santana got the Angels through the top of the 11th with top notch stuff, setting the Angels up for fireworks in the bottom of the inning. After David Robertson retired Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales, Joe Girardi made the strangest of his many strange managerial decisions and pulled Robertson in favor of Alfredo Aceves. Kendrick delivered yet again, this time with a two out single to center field. Jeff Mathis followed with a walk off RBI double on a pitch that he crushed to left center field, bringing Kendrick around from first base.
Thoughts on the game:
Jered Weaver didn't bring his best stuff to the mound today. He got his pitch count up early, and his fastball was very hittable. He battled through five innings, allowing five hits and three walks while striking out four. He was undone by three solo homers, the first coming from Derek Jeter on the third pitch of the game. To Weaver's credit, he worked out of some serious jams. In the second and fourth innings, he found himself with two runners on and no one out, and was able to work out of it both times. He left after a fifth inning in which he allowed the third solo homer of his day, a fastball that was hit over the short wall in right field by Johnny Damon.
In the bottom of the fifth, Howie Kendrick started the comeback with a solo shot of his own off of Yankees starter Andy Pettite. Kendrick crushed an inside fastball into bullpen in left field. An inning later, Bobby Abreu worked a one out walk. With two outs, Vladimir Guerrero hit a towering shot over the wall in left field to tie the score at three.
The Angels took the lead an inning later. Yankees manager Joe Girardi brought in Joba Chamberlain to face the right handed Kendrick, and Howie greeted him with a triple off the wall in right field. Maicer Izturis hit for Mike Napoli and drove Kendrick home with a sacrifice fly. But the lead was short lived. Kevin Jepsen walked Hideki Matsui to lead off the eighth inning. Matsui was replaced by Brett Gardner, but he was erased on a caught stealing, the result of a pitch out and a great throw and tag by Jeff Mathis and Erick Aybar. It was in important play, because Jorge Posada followed it up with a solo home run to dead center field, tying the game.
The Angels missed a golden opportunity to take the lead in the bottom of the eighth inning. Bobby Abreu led the inning off with a double to wall in right center field. Abreu thought about stretching it to third, and by the team he decided to stay at second, it was too late. He had overrun the bag and was thrown out on a nice play by Derek Jeter, and a great cover of second base by Mark Teixeira.
The Angels threatened again in the 10th inning. Mathis led off with a double and was bunted to third by Aybar. All runners were safe when Mariano Rivera's throw to third went into left field, but an alert Johnny Damon backed the play up and held Mathis. Chone Figgins grounded to first, leaving Mathis on third. After Abreu was walked intentionally, Torii Hunter hit a sharp grounder to Teixeira, who threw to the plate for the second out. Guerrero grounded out to first to end the inning.
Ervin Santana got the Angels through the top of the 11th with top notch stuff, setting the Angels up for fireworks in the bottom of the inning. After David Robertson retired Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales, Joe Girardi made the strangest of his many strange managerial decisions and pulled Robertson in favor of Alfredo Aceves. Kendrick delivered yet again, this time with a two out single to center field. Jeff Mathis followed with a walk off RBI double on a pitch that he crushed to left center field, bringing Kendrick around from first base.
Thoughts on the game:
- He screwed up on the bases, but a nice take away from this game are the two hits from Bobby Abreu. The Angels NEED his bat to come through, and hopefully today's game was a step in the right direction. On the other hand, Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales have been non-existent. Both were 0-5 today.
- Hopefully Howie Kendrick made his case to stay in the lineup today. I know he'll be in there tomorrow against the left-hander, but there's no reason his bat should be on the bench, even against right handers. With all credit in the world to Jeff Mathis, he was the Angels most valuable player today. His solo homer in the fifth got the offense started. His triple gave the Angels their first lead, and his single in the 11th set up the drama in the bottom of the 11th. His addition to the lineup was huge.
- Joe Girardi really overmanaged the Yankees today. Pulling Robertson for Aceves was the killer move, but Damaso Marte and Phil Coke, both left handers, faced two hitters and threw a combined four pitches in back to back at bats. He used Mariano Rivera for an inning, but made a defensive move to replace Johnny Damon's arm in left field with Jerry Hairston. This cost the Yankees their DH, and Girardi made the call to hit for Rivera with a weak bat and two out in the top of the 11th, which meant he had to pull Rivera from the game. The rest is history.
- Mark Teixeira, love him or hate him, is just a terrific fielder. He made the crucial play to cover second base on Abreu's botched double. He retired all three batters in the 10th when the Angels loaded the bases, keeping the Angels from scoring in an inning where they had a runner on third and nobody out.
- For all of its faults, the Angels bullpen worked six innings and allowed only one run, the Posada homer. Darren Oliver worked another solid 1.2 innings. Fuentes worked the ninth, striking out two and allowing only an intentional walk to A-Rod, perhaps a game too late. Jason Bulger worked a 1-2-3 tenth and struck out two hitters.
- Can't wait for tomorrow night.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Yankees 4; Angels 3
Just an atrocious way to end a game that the Yankees tried to give away. I don't even know what to say after this one. Time and time again the Angels had chances to take control, and time and time again they refused to cash in. For some reason, the Angels have not come to the ALCS prepared to play, and it has cost them the first two games of the season. They wasted an excellent effort from Joe Saunders and Kevin Jepsen, and now they head back to Anaheim with a must win game on Monday afternoon.
The Yankees got the scoring started in the second inning. Nick Swisher worked a two out walk, and Robinson Cano tripled him home. Derek Jeter's third inning homer gave the Yankees a 2-0 lead. The Angels got both runs back in the fifth inning. Maicer Izturis led the inning off with a ground rule double, and Erick Aybar singled him home. After Chone Figgins was hit by a pitch, and Torii Hunter walked, Yankees starter A.J. Burnett threw a wild pitch that scored Aybar to tie the game.
The bullpens battled it out into extra innings, with Joe Girardi burning through his best pitchers early, while the Angels went to the 10th with some of their best arms unused. In the 11th inning, Gary Matthews walked to lead off the inning. After Aybar bunted him to second, Chone Figgins singled him home to give the Angels a 3-2 lead. Mike Scioscia called upon closer Brian Fuentes to end the game, but he surrendered a lead off home run to Alex Rodriguez that tied the game. It came on an 0-2 pitch, but in Fuentes' defense, the ball barely cleared the wall in right field, and would have been a routine fly ball in every single professional ball park in the country. Only in the joke of a ball park they built in the Bronx would that be a home run. Yankee Stadium is really an embarrassment to baseball.
The Angels left the go ahead run in scoring position in both the 11th and 12th innings, failing to get the big hit time and time again. In the bottom of the 13th, Jerry Hairston, Jr. led the inning off with a base hit. He was sacrificed to second. The Angels intentionally walked Cano to get to Melky Cabrera. Cabrera hit a grounder to second that should have been the second out, but Izturis felt the need to try to get the out at second, even though there was no chance at turning a double play. Predictably, he threw it away, and Chone Figgins botched the back-up. Hairston scored, and now the Angels find themselves at death's door.
Thoughts on the game:
The Yankees got the scoring started in the second inning. Nick Swisher worked a two out walk, and Robinson Cano tripled him home. Derek Jeter's third inning homer gave the Yankees a 2-0 lead. The Angels got both runs back in the fifth inning. Maicer Izturis led the inning off with a ground rule double, and Erick Aybar singled him home. After Chone Figgins was hit by a pitch, and Torii Hunter walked, Yankees starter A.J. Burnett threw a wild pitch that scored Aybar to tie the game.
The bullpens battled it out into extra innings, with Joe Girardi burning through his best pitchers early, while the Angels went to the 10th with some of their best arms unused. In the 11th inning, Gary Matthews walked to lead off the inning. After Aybar bunted him to second, Chone Figgins singled him home to give the Angels a 3-2 lead. Mike Scioscia called upon closer Brian Fuentes to end the game, but he surrendered a lead off home run to Alex Rodriguez that tied the game. It came on an 0-2 pitch, but in Fuentes' defense, the ball barely cleared the wall in right field, and would have been a routine fly ball in every single professional ball park in the country. Only in the joke of a ball park they built in the Bronx would that be a home run. Yankee Stadium is really an embarrassment to baseball.
The Angels left the go ahead run in scoring position in both the 11th and 12th innings, failing to get the big hit time and time again. In the bottom of the 13th, Jerry Hairston, Jr. led the inning off with a base hit. He was sacrificed to second. The Angels intentionally walked Cano to get to Melky Cabrera. Cabrera hit a grounder to second that should have been the second out, but Izturis felt the need to try to get the out at second, even though there was no chance at turning a double play. Predictably, he threw it away, and Chone Figgins botched the back-up. Hairston scored, and now the Angels find themselves at death's door.
Thoughts on the game:
- I'm not sure I have many. I'm numb at this point. Aside from Joe Saunders, who got himself out of jam after jam, not one player on the Angels played like they wanted to win this game. A team that relied on getting the job done in crucial situations has not gotten it done in those situations against the Yankees.
- Yankee Stadium is a joke. Blame Fuentes all you want for making a bad pitch to A-Rod, and he certainly made a bad pitch, but there isn't a professional baseball stadium in the country were that's a home run. I've played on softball fields where that wouldn't have gone out. The new Yankee Stadium is an embarrassment to baseball. If they wanted to play on a Little League field, they should have moved the team to Williamsport.
- We won't know if the series is over until Tuesday evening. The Angels have to win games three and four. Even if they lose game five they aren't dead, but they have to even the series up at some point What scares me isn't the idea that Jered Weaver won't get it done. I have the utmost confidence in him. But this marks the sixth straight ALCS loss for the Angels, and the biggest problem in all of those games has been the offense. I think they can handle Andy Pettite. He's not all that. But they've got to get it done Monday, or the series is over.
- There were all kinds of other weird things in this game that may or may not be worth mentioning. A strange call at second base on a routine double play ball where Erick Aybar didn't touch the base and didn't get the neighborhood call. Robinson Cano's multiple erros. None of those had an impact on the game, so I'm not going to delve into them.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Game 1 Debacle
Not much to say. The Angels just looked like they weren't ready for the series to start. It's almost like they were expecting a rain out, and were surprised when the game went off as planned.
- The misplay in the first inning will be considered a tone-setter, but it was almost more of a "tone-identifier". Lackey's inability to retire Derek Jeter in the bottom of the first, and the bloop broken bat double by Johnny Damon were signs that things probably weren't going to go the Angels' way tonight.
- Give all credit to CC Sabathia. It was clear from the first strike out of Bobby Abreu tonight that he had his good stuff, and it was going to be a struggle. At the very least, it was going to be a game in which the Angels could not afford to gift wrap runs for the Yankees like they did tonight.
- The Yankees' fourth run was the result of a bad pick off throw by John Lackey, but a better question is why he was even worried about the runner. There were two outs, and Cabrera can run, but he only had 10 stolen bases all year. I'm not sure why Lackey was so pre-occupied with him.
- The thought of Joe Saunders starting game two felt a lot better when I thought the Angels might win game one. Now they send a guy out to the mound who hasn't pitched in two weeks, and while he can dial it up to 94, he's essentially a feel pitcher. I'm not sure that's the best option for the Angels, but it will have to do. The question will be whether the offense can jump out and five him some early confidence.
- Part of that offense is going to need to come from the top of the order. Chone Figgins is just killing the Angels in the lead off spot. He HAS to get on base.
- A-Rod is a pussy.
- I think Teixeira probably pulled his foot on the bunt by Hunter, but the Angels got those calls against the Red Sox, so it's hard to complain. I don't think it would have made much of a difference anyway.
- The nice thing about not having home field is that you console yourself after two losses with the thought that you were supposed to lose those games on the road. That said, game two now become huge. The Angels have to at least put up a worthy effort.
- The Angels have now lost five straight ALCS games, after winning four straight in 2002. On the plus side, they lost game one in the 2002 ALDS to the Yankees, and in the 2005 ALDS, also against the Yankees. They won both series.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
I Probably Just Jinxed Them
But I'll be in Anaheim if the Angels beat the Yankees, and if the World Series goes at least six games. Just got tickets for games six and seven.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Thoughts on Game 3 and the Series
- I've said so many things and made so many casual predictions that I shouldn't get any credit for this. But something told me this was the year that everyone would basically give up and say that the Angels had no chance. With the pressure off, they'd win the series. Still, I probably wouldn't have put any money on it. And once the pundits started picking the Angels half the time, I became convinced that we'd see more of the same.
- Going into the series, the consensus was the teams were fairly even, but the Sox had huge advantage in the bullpen. If they could make the series a battle of the bullpens, the Sox would win easily. In three games, the Angels bullpen allowed one run in six and a third innings. The Sox bullpen allowed seven runs in seven and a third innings, including five runs today. This probably speaks more the nature of the playoffs and small sample sizes than anything, but if you told me that the Angels pen would only give up one run over the first three games, I'd have a pretty good feeling about the series.
- Angels starters deserve some credit for those good bullpen numbers. Both Lackey and Weaver worked into the eighth inning, and Kazmir lasted six today, even though he was a bit shakey. They really limited the potential for danger.
- I can only say this from the perspective of an Angels fan, and fans of one of the 29 other teams will likely disagree, but I thought having Dave Henderson throw out the first pitch was low class. The wounds from that game aren't fully healed, and they run deeper than simply a lost baseball game. Hell, the Sox didn't even win the World Series that year. Maybe the Angels should have called up Ray Knight, Mookie Wilson, and the guy who sold coke to Len Bias to throw out the first pitch of a potential game five.
- Bobby Abreu was amazing. He was on base nearly 70% of the time. He delivered big at bat after big at bat. He's arguably the best $5MM the Angels have ever spent.
- On the other hand, Chone Figgins has been useless at the plate, or at least he was until his clutch walk in the ninth inning. But this is nothing new. Coming into today's game, he was hitting under .200 with an OBP barely above that. Not exactly what you expect or require from a table setter.
- The ALCS doesn't start until Friday. I'm probably most concerned about Joe Saunders. There will be some question about the rotation for the next series, but John Lackey has to start the first game. You can't mess with the rotation just to get someone work. The only question worth asking is this: Who gives the Angels the best chance to win game one? The answer is John Lackey.
- So it's on to New York, and again, I'm not going to make a prediction. But I'll say that the same hunch that made me think this might be the year that the Angels ended their Red Sox hex is also telling me that it's probably the season in which the Yankees end their Angels hex. Hope I'm wrong.
- I think the starting pitching is a wash;
- The Yankees have a better bullpen;
- The Angels are better defensively;
- The Angels have a better bench;
- The Yankees have a better lineup.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Going Back to Boston - Up Two Games to None
After two games, the Angels have erased the letters H and E from the word HEX. Two starts, two great pitching performances, and two days with just enough offense to get the Angels over the hump. They’ll board a plane tomorrow and fly back to Boston with a 2-0 series lead in the best of five ALDS.
Jered Weaver backed up John Lackey’s gem from last night with one of his own, limiting the Red Sox to two hits and two walks over 7.1 innings, while striking out seven. Darren Oliver, Kevin Jepsen, and Brian Fuentes took the reins and finished off the victory, ensuring a comfortable Saturday for nervous Angels fans everywhere.
The Sox got the scoring started in the fourth inning when Jacoby Ellsbury led the inning off with a triple. Two batters later, Victor Martinez singled him home, and the Sox had a 1-0 lead.
The Angels didn’t wait long to respond. Bobby Abreu led off the bottom of the fourth with a base hit. After Mike Lowell made a great play on a Torii Hunter line drive, Vladimir Guerrero singled Abreu to third. Kendry Morales cashed him in with a sacrifice fly to right field, and the Angels tied the game at 1.
Weaver and Beckett matched zeroes in the fifth and sixth innings, but the Angels jumped in front in the bottom of the seventh. Guerrero walked to lead off the inning, and pinch runner Howie Kendrick stole second. Two outs later, clutch God Maicer Izturis singled him home. Josh Beckett hit Mike Napoli with a curve ball two put runners on first and second. Erick Aybar followed with the big blast to center field, a triple over the head of Ellsbury that gave the Angels a 4-1 lead that they wouldn’t relinquish.
Thoughts on Game 2:
- Through two games last year, the Angels’ 6-9 plus leadoff hitters were a combined 4-42, with three walks, and six total bases. This season they’re 7-34 with 11 total bases. The difference has almost totally been Erick Aybar, who has a double and a triple so far, and whose triple tonight was the difference in the game.
- I still think these teams are almost dead even. If you started this series fresh tomorrow, I could easily see the roles completely reversed. But for now, the Angels are outplaying the Red Sox, and the biggest key has been their clutch hitting. That’s been the Angels’ M.O. in the regular season this decade, but severely lacking come playoff time. This year seems different.
- The Angels take two left handers into Boston, seemingly a graveyard for lefties. But both Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders have been excellent against the Red Sox in their careers. The matchups favors the Angels from this point, but things change again if we go to a fifth game.
- The best the Angels could hope for, going into this series, are deep runs from their starters, and low leverage situations for their relievers. They’ve got that so far. If they can get that again on Sunday, they’ll be preparing for the ALCS.
Friday, October 09, 2009
Thoughts on Game One
- You really can't overstate how important it was to get game one. If the Angels had lost again, after getting another excellent start, you have to think it would have started some sort of death spiral. But they didn't win in a throw-away type laugher. They didn't win on a controversial finish. They simply outperformed Boston at the plate and in the field, and were the better team. They haven't won anything yet, but this is a good start.
- I'm really glad that neither of the awful C.B. Bucknor calls had an impact on the game beyond John Lester's pitch count. They'll be footnotes now, but today would have been lousy with whiny Red Sox fans complaining that the fix was in.
- That said, there were two bad calls that had an effect on the game. Lackey through ball four to Kevin Youkilis and got a lucky strike call from Joe West to keep the at bat alive, and got an inning ending ground out two pitches later. He handled David Ortiz pretty well, so it may not have mattered, but he was really struggling with his control right there, and who knows what happens if he walks three straight.
- The second bad call, at least from the replays I've seen, was on the bases loaded double play. Looked to me like Torii Hunter avoided the tag at third, and that cost the Angels at least one run.
- It may be the last time Lackey pitches for the Angels, but two things about that possibility jumped out at me. First, if it is his last start in Anaheim, he just made about a million more per year with that start. Second, with the run support and defense that he got, he may be a tad more inclined to stay in SoCal. At the very least, he won't have a bad taste in his mouth from another excellent performance that went for naught.
- Chone Figgins was the only Angel who failed to reach base. The only other Angel without a hit was Bobby Abreu, but he also had no official at bats. Contrast that to last year where, for a few games, the entire bottom of the order was a black hole. This was a team effort. The defense was excellent, Kendry Morales provided a huge two out hit, and Torii Hunter, was very vocal on the need for the big performers to step up, provided the offensive heroism. That's a nice way to get things started.
- Another good pitching matchup tonight. So many things can happen in a short series that even a 2-0 lead won't give me much satisfaction, but I think the Angels exorcised a couple demons last night, and I think they'll all be a bit more relaxed tonight.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Five Times in Six Years
For the fifth time in six years, the Angels have won the American League West. For those first 29 years of my life, I don't think I ever thought I'd see this kind of sustained success. And what makes it better is that I no longer think it's likely to end any time soon.
I posted this in a Baseball Think Factory thread, but I think it's worthy of its own post here. And
On top of all that, the players who may leave via free agency are all highly paid. If the Angels lost all four of John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu, and Vladimir Guerrero, they would cut $44.5 million from the payroll (including almost $10MM from Kelvim Escobar). They would need to sign a big bat for the outfield, and that's probably it. One of Bell, O'Sullivan, or Palmer could pitch in the fifth spot of the rotation, and Wood could take over at third base. This team is set up to compete for a while longer.
Is this a good time to be an Angels fan or what?
I posted this in a Baseball Think Factory thread, but I think it's worthy of its own post here. And
If you told me the day Teixeria signed with New York that:Four fifths of the infield is made up of young, team controlled players. Two thirds of the outfield is locked up for the next few years. Four fifths of the starting rotation is either locked up or team controlled for the next couple years. The best pitchers in the bullpen over the last few months have been the up and comers. And three more excellent prospects got big league experience in the starting rotation, which should only serve to make them better down the road when their time truly comes. Top prospects in the system continue their development, and the team took advantage of multiple high picks this season to help restock the low minors.yet they'd still clinch the division with a week to go, I'd probably be pretty surprised. If you had told me all those things, yet still said that at one point late in the season they would start 9 guys hitting over .300, I'd try to have you committed.
- Vlad, Hunter, Lackey, and Santana would miss significant time (as in months);
- Saunders would suck hardcore for a while, then go on the DL before finally returning to form;
- Shields would miss almost the whole season;
- Speier would get worse;
- Adenhart would die;
- Escobar would not recover;
- Arredondo (remember how many people wanted him as the closer?) would suck donkeys;
- Kendrick would suck bad enough to get sent down at one point;
- That 31 starts would come from Shane Loux, Matt Palmer, Trevor Bell, and Sean O'Sullivan;
- That Brandon Wood and/or Sean Rodriguez would still not arrive;
Before this year, I thought the window was closing for the Angels. Now, after what I've seen this year, I'm more convinced then ever that the window is wide open. The lesson? Do not ever doubt any team that is managed by Mike Scioscia.
On top of all that, the players who may leave via free agency are all highly paid. If the Angels lost all four of John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu, and Vladimir Guerrero, they would cut $44.5 million from the payroll (including almost $10MM from Kelvim Escobar). They would need to sign a big bat for the outfield, and that's probably it. One of Bell, O'Sullivan, or Palmer could pitch in the fifth spot of the rotation, and Wood could take over at third base. This team is set up to compete for a while longer.
Is this a good time to be an Angels fan or what?
Thursday, September 03, 2009
Mariners 3; Angels 0
In a totally unsurprising performance, the offense which could only score one run against Mariners rookie Doug Fister managed one fewer than that against Mariners ace Felix Hernandez. The Angels offense has seemingly been feast or famine of late, and last night was definitely famine. Hernandez had command of all of his pitches, and Angels hitters flailed accordingly, managing only four hits and seven baserunners, while striking out seven times.
Somewhat surprising, especially after the first three hitters, was the performance of newly minted Angel Scott Kazmir. His Angels career started with runners reaching via an error, a single, and a hit batter, leaving the bases loaded with no one out. Kazmir found his good stuff, however, and struck out the next three batters he faced to escape the first unscathed. He didn't stop there. He retired the next 15 hitters in a row and carried a shutout into the seventh inning. He left the game after allowing only three hits and one walk while striking out 8.
The Mariners got to Kazmir in the seventh. A leadoff walk to Mike Sweeney and a one out double from Bill Hall provided all the offense the Ms would need. Hall eventually scored on a steal of third and Mike Napoli's errant throw. Brian Fuentes allowed the Mariners' final run on a bases loaded walk.
Thoughts on the game:
- With the Rangers victory over Toronto, what seemed like a safe six game lead just two days ago has dwindled to 3.5 games. Considering that the Rangers have hammered the Angels this season, when one looks at the two teams' schedules down the stretch, one wouldn't be out of line predicting an AL West title for Texas.
- On the other hand, Kazmir's outing adds to a string of solid recent performances by the Angels' "real" starters, which should give the team some hope, assuming the offense can get back on track.
- High pitch counts continue to be a problem. Even good outings have been marred by early exits recently. That wasn't an issue the last few years when the Angels had a rock solid bullpen. With the shaky crew on the Angels' current roster, however, starters need to work deeper into games, or this team could be in trouble.
Wednesday, September 02, 2009
Fistered: Angels 1; Mariners 2
Just when you think the Angels are ready to finally put Texas away, both teams show that the race isn't over. The Rangers swept two games from the Blue Jays yesterday. Coupled with the Angels loss to the Mariners, the AL West lead now stands at only 4.5 games with a month left in the season.
The Angels' offense, prolific in Monday's series opener, failed to create many opportunities, and squandered the opportunities it did create. Mariners rookie Doug Fister allowed just five hits and two walks over 7.1 innings, and the bullpen closed the deal for the home team. The Angels put the lead-off hitter on base in six of their nine at bats. Three times the runner was erased via the double play (including a strike-him-out throw-him-out double play in the first inning), and three times the runner advanced no further than the base at which he started.
The night's largest failure came in the eighth inning. With the Angels trailing 2-1, Maicer Izturis led the inning off with a double to right field. But Erick Aybay fouled out, failing to move Izturis to third. Consecutive fly-outs from Mike Napoli and Chone Figgins stranded Izturis at second.
Ervin Santana became a victim of low run support for the second straight game. He lasted six innings and allowed only one run. But he was also a victim of his own high pitch count, leaving after 100 pitches even. Darren Oliver relieved him in the seventh inning, and allowed a two out double to Jose Lopez which scored Franklin Gutierrez from first base for the eventual winning run.
Scott Kazmir makes his Angel debut this afternoon, and he's tasked with outpitching King Felix, who goes for the Mariners. A bit of a tall order, and a reason last night's game was so important.
Thoughts on the game:
- Ervin Santana has quietly put together five consecutive quality starts. The Angels are only 3-2 over that stretch, but he's put up an ERA of 2.45 in those games. He needs to start working a little deeper. In the last four of those five starts, he's only lasted six innings. Still, he's starting to look like a guy who Angels fans can trust in the playoffs.
- The Angels offense has been inconsistent of late, and they're struggling to find the form that they showed in late July and August. Games like this are unfortunate reminders of what we've seen in the playoffs the last couple years.
- While all eyes have been on Texas, the Red Sox have been surging. They now sit one game behind the Angels and 3.5 ahead of the Rangers. This is meaningful for two reasons. First, they look more and more likely to win the wild card, which means they'd probably face the Angels in the first round, and I probably don't have to tell you what that means. Second, because the Angels can't seem to beat the Rangers this year, the wild card was a nice fall back option in case of a late season Texas surge. That option looking less likely, and if the Rangers nip the Angels at the wire, it probably means there won't be a 2009 post-season in Anaheim
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