Burned By the Hot Stove?

Let's take stock of what we've seen from the Angels so far this off-season, both positive and negative:

1. Matt Brown, Jose Arredondo, and Dustin Mosely were non-tendered.
2. Kelvim Escobar signed a minor league deal elsewhere.
   
3. Chone Figgins signed with the Mariners.
4. John Lackey signed with the Red Sox.
5. The Angels re-upped with Bobby Abreu for two more seasons.
6. The Angels signed Hideki Matsui for one year at a decent number.

The Non-Tenders

The only one that surprised me somewhat was Dustin Mosely, especially with the impending loss of Lackey at the time. He was capable, when healthy, of providing league average innings, and I figured that would make him at least a candidate in spring training for a fifth starter job, now that one appears available. But there may be more to his injury than we know, and with Matt Palmer, Trevor Bell, Sean O'Sullivan, and possibly Trevor Reckling in the mix, I'm assuming the Angels were comfortable with their options.

Matt Brown looked like a AAAA type that could take over the Robb Quinlan role, but those guys aren't particularly hard to come by. Not a back-breaking loss.

Jose Arredondo looked like he had figured things out in 2008 when he tossed 61 innings with an ERA of 1.62. Arm problems held him back in 2009, and he was set to undergo Tommy John surgery in the off-season. But his real problem was that he never got his head screwed on straight. Asked to go to Arizona to stay fresh in case he was needed as a post-season replacement, he defied the organization and went home to the Dominican, effectively punching his ticket out of Anaheim. All in all, these non-tenders, as well as the loss of Escobar, will have a negligible effect on the 2010 Angels.


Chone Figgins

I can't say I'm surprised by Figgins decision to sign elsewhere, and Seattle is a logical destination, what with the loss of Adrian Beltre. It will be difficult to see Figgins in another uniform, especially one within the division, but this was the right move by both teams. From Figgins' standpoint, he needed to take the best deal he could get, and while the Angels would have taken him back at their price, he did better than he would have done in Anaheim. When he was a pinch runner in 2002, I doubt too many of us thought that we'd get production from him that we saw over his Angels career. But he's not getting any younger, his stolen base success was down last year, and honestly, he's probably more valuable as a guy who plays every day, but plays three positions per week. The Mariners won't use him that way (the Angels wouldn't either). We'll have to wait and see if his 2009 was a case of a guy exploding in a contract year. I don't think it was, actually. I think he'll have a couple really good seasons in Seattle, then decline. I think it's a good deal for both player and team.

But the Angels have got to do something with Brandon Wood, and they appear ready to give him the shot that he's earned in AAA. Wood hasn't shown much at the major league level, but he's never been in a sink or swim situation. He was either up for the purpose of giving guys random days off, or because injuries necessitated it. His major league power numbers through his age aren't all that different from Kendry Morales, and if he continues to improve his discipline, even a little bit, he can be a productive power hitter who plays very good defense at third base. I think he got screwed by the organization in some ways last year, and it took him a while to get it rolling, but if he puts up another spring like he did in 2009, there will be no question that the job is his, and we'll finally see if he's been worth waiting for. It will be worth it for the closure alone.


John Lackey

Tony Granato played six seasons for the Los Angels Kings. He went to a Stanley Cup finals with the Kings. His gritty style and attitude made him a fan favorite of Kings fans for his entire tenure in L.A. Kings fans stuck by him when he took a two handed slash to the head of Neil Wilkinson. We stuck by him when he missed a lot of time due to a brain tumor. To this day, I remember being at a Kings game while he was recovering, and when they flashed his picture on the jumbotron, everyone in the crowd gave him a standing ovation. Then, in 1996, he turned down a comparable offer from the Kings to sign with the San Jose Sharks, arguably my most hated franchise at the time (still is, really, tied with the Ducks). To this day, I hate Tony Granato. That's how I feel about John Lackey.

My feelings regarding Lackey are almost completely opposite to those of Figgins. Granted, he took a lot more money than the Angels were probably willing to offer, and more money than he's worth, but I have nothing but antipathy for players who leave as free agents and sign with their longtime fanbase's most hated franchise (which I think the Red Sox are for Angels fans). I may be rationalizing, but over the last couple years, I don't think Lackey was an Angels warrior. I think he was a warrior who happened to pitch for the Angels, but I don't think he had much, if any, loyalty towards the franchise. He badmouthed his teammates at times, he had issues with his manager, and I think we all knew that when he blew up at Scioscia in the ALCS, he had thrown his last pitch as an Angel.

I will not root for John Lackey the way I rooted for Garret Anderson in Atlanta. I will not crack a tiny smile when I see that he's had a good performance, like I will for Chone Figgins. I will not celebrate a John Lackey day at Anaheim Stadium like I did for Chuck Finley. I won't wish him any physical harm (then again, I won't shed any tears if he shreds his elbow), but I will root for him to get lit up every single time he takes the mound, and I would love to see "Red Sox Nation" turn on him 10 starts into his Red Sox career. His is this decade's Jim Edmonds in terms of how much I'll root for him to fail (and hopefully he won't still succeed like Edmonds did).


Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu

The Abreu deal is a month old, and we already know what he bring to the table. I don't have much to disagree with there, and all I would say is that I hope he takes Erick Aybar under his wing and teaches him to be patient and the advantages that come from it. I think Aybar matured a lot this season, and I think with another year studying under Abreu, if he can learn to take a few more walks, he could replace Chone Figgins as a quality lead-off hitter.

I like the Matsui deal as well, though it likely means that Vladimir Guerrero is done as an Angel. It's only one year, and it's not for very much money. When it comes to free agent deals gone bad, it's almost never the dollars that kill a team, it's the years. Gary Matthews would have been palatable (though still overpaid) at $10MM per for two years. It's the third, fourth, and fifth years that made that deal awful. Even if Matsui blows up in the Angels' faces, it's just a minor blemish. He only missed 20 games last year, and had OPS+ of 131 with 28 homers. Those number are almost identical to Vlad's 2008. I'll gladly take that for $6.5MM for one year.


The Future

So where do the Angels go from here? They'll likely make some sort of play for another pitcher, or Jason Bay, or both. Hopefully the rumored deal of Juan Rivera for Derek Lowe is not close to reality, as it would be a horrible deal for the Angels. Lowe had a very subpar season last year, with his peripherals down across the board. You could expect a bounce back year from a 31 or 32 year old, but I wouldn't expect one from a 37 year old. Worse yet, he's got three years at $15MM per left on his deal. That's not the type of acquisition we've seen Tony Reagins go in for (see Abreu and Matsui). Reagins' only big splash has been for Torii Hunter, younger and more productive than Lowe. Honestly, I'm more confident handing the fifth starter job over to Matt Palmer than I am giving it to Derek Lowe.

So the starting staff, assuming no major injuries, looks to be Weaver, Saunders, Kazmir, Santana, and one of Palmer, O'Sullivan, Reckling, or Bell. I'd expect Saunders to put together a better overall season. Weaver may regress a bit, but not much. Kazmir will be an upgrade over what they got from the third spot last year, and Santana looks like he has regained his form. I honestly don't see a major drop off. If Shields can come back healthy, the bullpen won't be any worse (not a very high bar).

I see the offense as probably being down a bit. The projectors will say that Kendry Morales will regress, but I see him as just as likely to improve on last season, and if I were a betting man, I'd bet on similar production to what he did in 2009. I have pretty high hopes for Kendrick. I see Aybar dropping the average a bit, but hopefully picking up a few walks to balance out the OBP. Wood, obviously, is a question mark. Angel fans have reason to be optimistic after seeing what Morales could do with a full season of at bats, but I wouldn't pencil the kid in for a .300 average and 30 homers. I'll be happy if he just holds down the starting job for the whole year. In the outfield, I think we can expect similar production to what we saw last year, with maybe more from Matsui at the DH than we got out of Vlad.

If the Angels make no more moves right now, I think they'll be picked second by most of the media, with the Mariners looking like the trendy pick. And as always, it's baseball, so anything can happen. Guys blow up, guys fall off cliffs, and guys get hurt. So I think it's safe to say that the division is wide open, but I still expect (however irrationally) the Angels to win it.

It's a long way to April, though, and what happens between now and then could make this entire analysis moot.

Musings on Brandon Wood

Why is Brandon Wood not a candidate for first base? For some reason, I never hear this mentioned. I guess it's because Kendry Morales is a switch hitter, so there's really no need to platoon him, but Wood seems a good fit so long as the Angels have four other players battling for the jobs at third base (Figgins, Izturis), Shortstop (Aybar, Izturis), and second base (Kendrick, Aybar, and Izturis).

I bring this up in reference to Mike DiGiovanna's piece in the LA Times today about Brandon Wood. I still remember seeing Wood play in the only game I've been to in Cedar Rapids, a season in which he didn't really do much. Honestly, I don't recall him doing anything at the plate in that game, but I did see him start two double plays in one inning (the first one was botched by either the second baseman or the first baseman, and the next batter grounded into a proper double play). He looked like a slick fielder at the time. Obviously his power exploded over his next few minor league seasons, but to date, his inability to avoid the punch out has stifled some of his progress. I have a number of thoughts on his situation and what they tell me about the Angels in general, and I'm not really sure how to organize them, so I'm just going kind of go stream of consciousness for the next few paragraphs.

First, and I know this is especially being questioned this year, but it does seem like the Angels have mismanaged some of their offensive prospects. I understand the idea of letting a player work things out for himself. A kid like Wood got to where he was because he was doing it the way that worked for him, and you don't want to mess with that. At the same, a lot of those kids get to where they are because their raw ability and power dominate at the lower levels without the need for fine tuning. A good development program shouldn't be content to let a player dominate at the lower levels. They need to find the flaws that may not hinder a player in double A, but will end his career in the majors. That's how an organization turns a AAAA player into a major leaguer. Either Wood's propensity to strike out hasn't been addressed, or the Angels haven't seen it as an issue.

In a vacuum, strikeouts aren't a big deal. An out is an out, and while strikeouts are never productive (and we know the Angels love their productive outs), they also usually aren't double plays. A strikeout is usually no better or worse than an infield pop-up. But when a player strikes out as often as Wood, it makes it very difficult to reach base at a high rate. Tim Salmon and Troy Glaus could do it because they found a way to walk 90+ times per season while striking out 130+ times. Glaus struck out 163 times in 2000, and still got on base at a .404 clip. Wood hasn't shown the ability to marry a high strike out rate with an acceptable OBP. As the SABR guys like to say, outs are baseball's currency, and while how you make them may not be important, how many you make certainly is. I don't even think this is a problem of organizational philosophy. Sure, the Angels aren't necessarily a take and rake franchise, but they also don't preach a swing for the fences philosophy. This is organizational failure to fine tune a player's weaknesses, which may not affect minor league numbers, in preparation for a major league career. And not every player is the same. Just as Wood and Dallas McPherson should have been drilled on patience and waiting for pitches they can drive instead of swinging hard at everything, a player like Adam Dunn may have benefited from learning a more aggressive approach at the lower levels (not that he hasn't turned out OK). There's no rigid standard. But the Angels have not effectively managed their minor league hitters in this decade. In fact, a player like Glaus may have benefited from spending very little time in the minors.

Getting back to the first base issue, one thing that perplexes me a little bit about the Angels approach to this season is the idea that they're handing the job to Kendry Morales, but Wood will have to earn a job on the left side of the infield. I realize this is a current personnel issue, but Morales has not been much more productive at the major league level. Although the raw numbers are better, the sample sizes are far too small to reach a solid conclusion. Point being, why hand the job to Morales instead of letting him fight it out with Wood. Part of breaking through at the major league level is winning a position battle, and showing the fortitude to do so is something the Angels should be encouraging. I understand that moving a player to the left on the defensive spectrum is a waste of a defensive ability. Brandon Wood is much more valuable as a short stop or third baseman than as a first baseman, but this position battle isn't being waged in a vacuum. The Angels have who they have, and the key right now is getting the best bats in the lineup. And this decade has shown that when the Angels move a player "out of position" to first, they generally get excellent defense at that position (see also: Erstad, Kendrick, and Spiezio). Personally, I think first base defense is an underrated concept, but I'm not here to make that argument.

I'm going to wrap this up by noting that for most of this post, you could replace Wood's name with Sean Rodriguez and have similar arguments. I just hope that the Angels aren't writing their opening day roster in ink. Spring training is a time when players like Wood, Rodriguez, and Morales should feel the pressure to earn everyday at bats. Handing the job to Morales is as much a disservice to him as it is to Wood and Rodriguez. This is another year in which the Angels, barring ill health, should have tremendous depth. At the same time, failure to properly manage that depth could mean giving the lion's share of at bats to the wrong guy. And let me be clear, I'm not arguing that Wood should be given anything. My point is that I want to see these guys battle this spring for regular season at bats. And I'm not quite sure (and maybe it's a media creation) why anyone on that infield should feel entitled to a starting job (except maybe Figgins).

What's Riding on Tonight's game?

Obviously, for the Angels, this game is their season. Lose tonight, and pretty much everything they've worked for since Spring Training is shot to hell. The Teixeira trade signaled that this season was Championship or bust, and they're very close to bust. In addition, they're basically showing the world that if they're in the post-season in the same year as the Red Sox, they may as well not even show up. They've now lost 10 straight post-season games to the Red Sox, and more importantly, seven straight under their current regimes.

Tonight they take on Daisuke Matsuzaka, who the Angels have beaten before. But he's got serious control problems. He walks over five guys per nine innings. But he doesn't allow many hits, and he strikes a lot of guys out. That's probably poison for a lineup full of guys that make their decision to swing usually before a pitcher releases the ball. So I don't really have very high hopes for tonight's game. If they had lost game one in a high scoring back and forth affair, I'd probably be thinking differently. But what we saw on Wednesday was almost a replay of the six previous playoff matchups this decade. The Angels can't get runners on base, and when they do, they can't advance them. On rare scoring occasions, they can't come up with a big hit. Leads are the bread and circuses that keep the masses entertained until the Red Sox decide to pull away.

But tonight's game, in my opinion, has major significance for Chone Figgins. It's a contract year. The Angels have an heir apparent for third base (a couple, really). Since becoming an everyday player, Figgins has seven hits in 52 post-season at bats. He has a line of 135/182/231 over that span. As a leadoff hitter, he has killed the Angels. I'm not usually a believer in small sample sizes, but he bares as much blame as anyone for the Angels' post-season misfortunes over that period, and if he cant' turn it around, I don't care about his regular seasons, it's time to find an alternative. He's a free agent after this year, and I strongly recommend the Angels let him go. They have two guys who should be ready for a full time gig next season in Brandon Wood and Sean Rodriguez, and either of them can match his production and defense. While they won't steal bases, they'll hit for power, and that's a trade off I'm willing to accept.

So while this is a big game for the Angels, it's even bigger for Figgins. It could decide his fate in Anaheim.

Note - edited: Added "post season" to the third paragraph

One of Three

I think we all wish things would have gone a little differently in Seattle over the weekend, but them's the breaks, and when all is said and done, 1-2 in their building isn't all that awful.

Cause for concern:

• Two straight poor outings from Jon Garland.
• The bullpen continues to be less than impressive.
• Nobody seems to be able to get Raul Ibanez out.
• Gary Matthews Jr. is an out-making machine.
• Despite the flood of offense so far this season, the Angels sit just one game over .500.
• Howie Kendrick can't seem to stay healthy.
• The defense is at times not so good.
  

Cause for optimism:

• Lackey's throwing again.
• Frankie's velocity was up a bit yesterday, even though his location wasn't great. Maybe getting guys back into their normal roles will help everyone calm down a bit.
• Raul Ibanez doesn't play for the Rangers.
• I'm sorry, I can't think of anything positive about Matthews.
• Howie, when healthy, is on fire.
  

The strength of the offense actually may be sustainable. No, I don't expect Figgins to hit .400, or Howie to hit .500, or Kotchman to stay as hot as he's been. But I also expect a little more out of Vlad than we've gotten so far, and I expect those three to hit all season.

In Figgins' case, I think we're getting past the point where we can call his success over the last four and a half months of regular season action a fluke. I've mentioned before that I think somewhere between .300 and .310 is a fairly conservative, yet realistic estimate of what he can do this year, and if the plate discipline (12 walks in 50 plate appearances) is real, and I suspect it is (to an extent - I think one walk every 8-9 appearances is a realistic goal), then he could be poised for a very fine season.

Kendrick is Kendrick, and if he's in the lineup, he's going to hit. He doesn't seem to be a guy that pitchers can figure out for very long. As he makes his way around the league a few times, they may catch up to him a bit, but he's had sustained success at the lower levels, and he just seems like the type that will be able to adjust to what the pitchers at this level will do.

As for Kotchman, the average isn't a surprise. I don't expect .370, but it's a small sample, and I do expect him, if healthy, to stay north of .300 all year, and if things break right, .325 or so isn't out of the question. As for the three homers, I'm not surprised. I know the pundits don't expect him to ever show a ton of power, and maybe their right. But what I saw last year and this are: 1) a lot of doubles, which usually portend decent power numbers; and 2) although he didn't hit a lot of homers last year, many of them were LONG home runs. He wasn't hitting shots that scraped the wall. He crushed a few of them deep into the right field seats, which isn't easy to do in Anaheim. Already this year he killed one in Minnesota, AND he hit one out in Seattle that was on a pretty good pitch, not a pitch a guy with little power should have been able to hit out. The predictions are that he'll top out around 25 homers. I think we may see that many, or more, this year assuming good health (a big assumption).

The Angels routinely have trouble firing on all cylinders at this point in the season. They muddle along doing some things well and other things not so well until they hit a summer stretch where they start to assert themselves. That's pretty much what I see happening this year as well.

Chone Figgins - Asskicker

It's not very often that you see a guy raise his batting average thirty points in one game in June. But that's what Chone Figgins did tonight, all while pulling John Lackey and Hector Carrasco's asses out of the fire. Both pitchers were awful, but Figgins capped off a six for six night by driving in the tying run on a two out infield single in the 8th inning and a two out game winning double in the bottom of the tenth inning, making a winner out of Frankie Rodriguez.

Lackey was less than good for the second straight start, blowing a 4-1 lead, and exiting the game with two runners on base and trailing 6-4, all five runs coming with two outs. He simply didn't have it from the get go, and while he battled for a few innings, he succumbed in the fifth, walking Carlos Lee to load the bases, and throwing three ball fastball after fastball to Mark Loretta, who finally bounced one over the left-center field wall for a two run ground rule double. But Lackey didn't accept the good break, and promptly delivered a textbook gopher ball to Mark Lamb. A hit batter and some choice words for the umpire is all Lackey could muster before finally getting the hook.

Hector Carrasco got out of the fifth, and delivered a 1-2-3 sixth before falling apart in the seventh, the coup de grace coming on error in a run down that not only allowed the 8th run to score, but allowed the eventual ninth run to reach third, where a sac fly would chase him home.

Then the monkey paid a long overdue visit. Singles from Vlad and HGHMJ, followed by a walk to Kendrick loaded the bases. Hillenbrand, who conveniently waited until the game was tied to deliver his usual suck (in his defense, he had three hits and two RBIs in what was a pretty good game for him) drove in two with a single. Mike Napoli busted down the line to avoid a double play, a huge effort that paid dividends. Erick Aybar knocked one into right to score Kendrick and move Napoli to third, from where he would score on a Reggie Willits sac fly. With Aybar on third, Figgins delivered his fifth hit of the night, a bouncer to first that he legged out for the game tying RBI.

Anxious moments plagued the 8th and 9th innings, but Scot Shields and Frankie Rodriguez made big pitches when they needed to, none more important than Frankie's slider to Craig Biggio that ended the ninth inning, which looked to me like one of the best he's thrown since 2002.

With two outs in the ninth, Reggie Willits became the ninth Angel starter to reach base via a hit, and set the stage for Chone Figgins' heroics. On a 1-1 pitch, with Willits drawing all kinds of attention from Astros reliever Trever Miller, Figgins laced a liner down the right field line, hit almost as hard as two liners that he had caught earlier in the game. It dropped a few feet to the happy side of the foul line, found its way to the corner, and Willits came home with the winning run.

The Angels should not have won this game. They got seven innings of lousy pitching, 4.2 from a guy who may have just cancelled his trip to San Francisco in mid-July. Only three of their 19 hits went for extra bases (Figgins was officially credited with a triple on the last hit), and none left the yard. But they scratched a victory worthy of their magical 2002 season. Championship teams win games during the season that they have no business winning, and this was one of those for the Angels. And almost all of the credit goes to Figgins. Really an amazing game, and an amazing turnaround from a guy that people wanted to run out of town about a month ago.

Less than stellar of late, Bartolo Colon takes the mound tomorrow to take a shot at wrapping up another series win.

Wood Down, Figgins Back

Sorry Erick, but you're about to get a lot less playing time. Wood was sent back to Salt Lake after today's game, and Figgins will rejoin the team tomorrow.

Good move by management here, mostly because Figgins will hardly realize he's no longer in AAA, since the Angels will be facing the Royals.

I Don't Know is on Third

A few weeks ago, the Angels were poised to enter the season with five different guys who could end up at third base. Chone Figgins was, and probably still is, the most likely candidate with the outfield more or less spoken for at this point. Additionally, camp begins with Maicer Izturis, Shea Hillenbrand, and Robb Quinlan among the guys who could see time at the hot corner. Dallas McPherson's back surgery had trimmed that list to those four. Well, add one more back to the list.

The Angels are starting camp with phenom Brandon Wood taking grounders at third base in preparation for a possible and pretty much expected inevitable move from shortstop. And while I'm linking, can anyone explain why the hell the LA Times is printing both an "Angels Report" and an "Angels Beat", which is essentially the same, yet slightly different article? Anyway, Mike Scioscia has been quick to point out that they're not giving up on Wood as a shortstop, for whatever that's worth.

Actually, this isn't particularly surprising. There aren't a lot of at bats to go around at shortstop this spring, what with Orlando Cabrera, Maicer Izturis, Erick Aybar, and (I assume) Sean Rodriguez all in camp. And the Angels are no strangers to bringing up a guy they think is ready while also creating a position for him on the fly (see also: Howie Kendrick at first base; Chone Figgins everywhere). I won't be surprised if Wood returns to short at Salt Lake, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they simply decided that they have enough depth at the six that it makes sense to get Wood more seasoning at third base.

I don't really think this is a big deal, and it's a pretty unsurprising move. It's not like moving Erstad from center to first base, where there's a huge drop in the value of an average bat. Wood will still have a lot of value as a third baseman, though perhaps not as much as at short. That difference could be made up on defense. To the extent there's been any Angels "news" lately, I guess this is it.