As I write this, the Angles trail Oakland 4-0 in the second inning. After a nice start, Nick Adenhart, making his major league debut, gave up a hit, four walks, and another hit, which led to those four runs.
It's times like these I like to recall Ervin Santana's major league debut. On May 17, 2005, Ervin Santana faced the Cleveland Indians in Cleveland. He gave up a triple to Grady Sizemore, a double to Coco Crisp, a Single to Travis Hafner, and home run to Ben Broussard. He gave up the cycle to the first four batters he faced in his career. Since that game, he's 40-29, and that inlcudes an awful year last year, plus he's only 25.
The moral of the story? Stuff happens. Adenhart will be fine.
Oh, and now it's 4-1, thanks to Jack "Glove-butcher" Cust.
Update: Now it's 5-4 Angels, thanks to Cust and a lack of mental toughness on the part of the Duke. Back to you, Nick.
Further Updated: The Angels bullpen proves that if you're the Angels brass, it's pretty much damned if you do, damned if you don't when it comes to the Angels seventh starter position.
Updated again: This is what I wrote on BTF in response to all of the doom and gloom:
Ervin Santana - Major League Debut: 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 HR, and he gave up the cycle to the first four batters he faced.
Ervin Santana - Next Major League Start: 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1BB, 7 K. That was against the eventual World Champion White Sox.
Something tells me that when a kid who is a top prospect is called up and stuggles in his debut, it's not the end of the world. It's May fer chrissakes. Can we please pull back from the ledge?
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Catching up
Last night's game notwithstanding, I think we can look back and say that the Angels had a pretty successful road trip. If you could pick one player who was the key to their success, it would probably be Casey Kotchman. All he did over the six games in Boston and Detroit was put up a 400/520/700 line, with two homers, four RBIs, and 5 walks. His six homers was good enough to tie for the league lead through the end of the trip. He continues to be their best hitter, with a line of 326/392/565, including last night's 0-fer. And that's before taking his gold glove defense into account. Despite all of the complaints about his proclivity for injury and illness, all of the rumors of his eventual trade from Anaheim, all of the attempts to sign a "slugging" first baseman to replace him, he's emerging as the best hitter on the team. All of this goes to show that people could stand to be a bit more patient. Very few guys enter the league and kick ass at 22 or 23 years of age.
Their numbers on the recent trip weren't wonderful, but the catcher spot continues to pleasantly surprise. Last year, the Angels got 14 home runs from that position, with a line of 229/299/372. That's over 162 games. This year, Napoli and Mathis have nine homers, and have combined for a line of 263/323/589. They're actually getting offensive production from the catcher position.
Chone Figgins has come back to earth a bit, but he hasn't plummeted. He's still hitting .314, and he had a pretty wretched trip, but he's got 18 walks in 129 plate appearances (one HBP), for an ISO OBP of .105. That's excellent for a leadoff hitter, especially one who will hit around .300.
Hokey Joe continues to impress, and Ervin Santana has been nothing short of outstanding so far. The Angels' fifth and sixth starters have combined to go 8-0 with a 2.75 ERA. They're allowing barely more than a baserunner per inning, they're striking out almost two and a half hitter for every walk, and they're keeping the ball in the park (6 homers in 68.2 innings). And to think but for the injuries, one of those guys would have started in the pen. They've nicely covered for shaky starts by Weaver and Garland.
And to close it out, the front end of the bullpen has been getting the job done as well. Despite shaky starts to the season, Justin Speier, Scot Shields, and Frankie Rodriguez all have it going. Frankie has saved his last six games, and has allowed four hits and two walks in that time. Three of those hits came in one appearance. Shields has been even better, allowing 9 baserunners in his last 10 innings, and two runs in mop-up work against the Red Sox.
Critics of the Angels bullpen have been silent lately, and all of the sudden, re-signing Frankie is looking more and more like a priority. A quick glance at the league's top closers shows a group that are either not on the market (Rivera, Papelbon, Jenks, Cordero), or not reliable (Sherrill, Isringhausen, Gagne). There's a reason Coco got that big contract over the off-season. And the only other reliable 9th inning guy on the market (Joe Nathan) is seven years older than Frankie. Remember, the comparison is not what Frankie is vs. what we'd like Frankie to be. It's between what he is vs. what else is out there (including going in house). If you're going to break the bank for Gary Matthews Jr., how do not do it for a franchise hero who is still one of the most effective players in the league at his position?
So a tough loss last night, but hopefully they got that performance out of the way early. Kendrick is set to return soon, as is John Lackey. And despite the early season loss of 37 wins from the previous year, the Angels still sit in a pretty good position as we head into May.
Their numbers on the recent trip weren't wonderful, but the catcher spot continues to pleasantly surprise. Last year, the Angels got 14 home runs from that position, with a line of 229/299/372. That's over 162 games. This year, Napoli and Mathis have nine homers, and have combined for a line of 263/323/589. They're actually getting offensive production from the catcher position.
Chone Figgins has come back to earth a bit, but he hasn't plummeted. He's still hitting .314, and he had a pretty wretched trip, but he's got 18 walks in 129 plate appearances (one HBP), for an ISO OBP of .105. That's excellent for a leadoff hitter, especially one who will hit around .300.
Hokey Joe continues to impress, and Ervin Santana has been nothing short of outstanding so far. The Angels' fifth and sixth starters have combined to go 8-0 with a 2.75 ERA. They're allowing barely more than a baserunner per inning, they're striking out almost two and a half hitter for every walk, and they're keeping the ball in the park (6 homers in 68.2 innings). And to think but for the injuries, one of those guys would have started in the pen. They've nicely covered for shaky starts by Weaver and Garland.
And to close it out, the front end of the bullpen has been getting the job done as well. Despite shaky starts to the season, Justin Speier, Scot Shields, and Frankie Rodriguez all have it going. Frankie has saved his last six games, and has allowed four hits and two walks in that time. Three of those hits came in one appearance. Shields has been even better, allowing 9 baserunners in his last 10 innings, and two runs in mop-up work against the Red Sox.
Critics of the Angels bullpen have been silent lately, and all of the sudden, re-signing Frankie is looking more and more like a priority. A quick glance at the league's top closers shows a group that are either not on the market (Rivera, Papelbon, Jenks, Cordero), or not reliable (Sherrill, Isringhausen, Gagne). There's a reason Coco got that big contract over the off-season. And the only other reliable 9th inning guy on the market (Joe Nathan) is seven years older than Frankie. Remember, the comparison is not what Frankie is vs. what we'd like Frankie to be. It's between what he is vs. what else is out there (including going in house). If you're going to break the bank for Gary Matthews Jr., how do not do it for a franchise hero who is still one of the most effective players in the league at his position?
So a tough loss last night, but hopefully they got that performance out of the way early. Kendrick is set to return soon, as is John Lackey. And despite the early season loss of 37 wins from the previous year, the Angels still sit in a pretty good position as we head into May.
Friday, April 25, 2008
Checking in
Blogging will probably return to its normal, infrequent frequency sometime soon. I really want to say something about the Red Sox series, but between a busy week at work, a couple of concerts, and heavy practicing for the state Mid-Amateur championship, I've been a little busy and a lot tired over the last week or so.
But damn, the catcher and first base positions are kicking some serious ass right now, and the pen appears to have righted itself. I was going to call Rob out, but he did it to himself, so no need. Now let's get the Tigers, who have been scoring a lot of runs lately. Look for very high scoring games in this series.
But damn, the catcher and first base positions are kicking some serious ass right now, and the pen appears to have righted itself. I was going to call Rob out, but he did it to himself, so no need. Now let's get the Tigers, who have been scoring a lot of runs lately. Look for very high scoring games in this series.
Friday, April 18, 2008
New UCLA Post
I have a new post up at the SoCal Sports Hub on the decisions of Love, Westbrook, Mbah A Moute, and possibly Collison and Shipp to declare for the draft. Here's an excerpt:
Click here for the rest. I'm going to be do some more occasional posting over there in addition my stuff here.
Yesterday, freshman Kevin Love and sophomore Russel Westbrook declared their intentions to enter the NBA draft. Both have been projected to go anywhere from the lottery to the late first round. It has been widely rumored that juniors Darren Collison and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will do the same. Word is that Josh Shipp is also considering going this route. When the season started, it was generally assumed that Love was one and done, and Collison was also probably gone after this year. Both had their ups and downs, and we can all look for faults in their game, but at the end of the day, nothing has really changed since those pre-season assessments. In the meantime, Westbrook showed the athleticism and scoring ability in starter minutes that had us all salivating after watching him in limited minutes last year. In doing so, he turned himself into a likely first rounder, and possibly lottery pick. Shipp and Mbah A Moute didn’t have tremendous seasons. Shipp likely regressed a bit. But their decisions, should they decide to enter the draft, don’t surprise me one bit.
These decisions have prompted a number of critical comments from UCLA fans. They generally fall into a few categories. I’m going to attempt to categorize those complaints and deal with them in this post.
Click here for the rest. I'm going to be do some more occasional posting over there in addition my stuff here.
Trends
Chone Figgins has hit in nine straight games, and his batting average has been barely affected. After the rash of walks to start the season, he's slowed down a bit. He's now averaging one walk every 5.7 plate appearances, which is still pretty damn good. We can talk all night about how they need production out of Vlad, GA, Hunter, etc., but if Figgins can get on base four times out of ten all year, it's really going to make the offense go, assuming he's not immediately eliminated by Matthews every time.
Scot Shields has allowed one base runner in his last four outings (3.2 innings), and none in his last three. He's also struck out four in that span. Worries over the arm troubles that landed him on the DL to start the season, well, they aren't so worrying anymore. Beyond the numbers, he's looked fairly sharp.
Another big series with the Mariners, but I think last weekend soaked up most of the early season drama. They should be able to just relax and play baseball for a while. Well see tonight whether Hokie Joe can keep it going.
Scot Shields has allowed one base runner in his last four outings (3.2 innings), and none in his last three. He's also struck out four in that span. Worries over the arm troubles that landed him on the DL to start the season, well, they aren't so worrying anymore. Beyond the numbers, he's looked fairly sharp.
Another big series with the Mariners, but I think last weekend soaked up most of the early season drama. They should be able to just relax and play baseball for a while. Well see tonight whether Hokie Joe can keep it going.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Angels Sweep Rangers
Finally a bit of a return to normalcy after the way the Rangers took the Angels apart in the second half of last season. They got a decent start out of Ervin Santana on Monday, who looked like the road version of last year's model in the first inning. From there he settled down and tossed six scoreless innings before turning it over the bullpen.
Yesterday they got a less than adequate start out of Dustin Moseley, who gave up four runs in four innings, and really did himself in with five walks. It was the type of start that normal teams expect out of a fifth starter. The good news for the Angels is that Moseley is their seventh starter. The key for the April Angels is to get this team into May without a lot of damage done so that when Lackey and (God willing) Escobar return, they'll be poised for the mid-season run that puts the division away in late July/early August.
Don't look now, but over the last two days, the bullpen has provided seven innings of earned run free baseball, the only blemish coming when Erick Aybar's throwing error in the eight inning on Monday led somewhat indirectly to Frankie Rodriguez's save opportunity. Speaking of Frankie, two innings, two base runners (both walks), two strikeouts, and two scoreless saves, yesterday's being of the 1-2-3 variety. They actually looked like the real Angels bullpen this series. And don't forget Scot Shields' 1.2 IP, 0 baserunners, 2 Ks performance in the two games. It's no secret that the bullpen is going to be essential to the Angels' success this year, and if they can get the 7-8-9 inning guys going, things may turn out OK.
On the offensive side of things, Chone Figgins picked up three more hits in nine at bats, and saw his average drop 10 points. After two straight games without a free pass, he picked up number 13 in 69 plate appearances yesterday. His ability to get on base (currently a .507 clip) is probably THE reason the Angels have the top scoring offense in the league to this point, well, that and the fact that they've played as many or more games than everyone else. Mike Napoli (four homers) continues to pour on the power when he's in the lineup, and Casey "he'll top out at 20-25 homers" Kotchman also hit his fourth of the season. Maybe the experts are right, but my gut tells me he's got 35 homer power in him. Maybe not this year, but at some point.
Next up will be a contrast in styles as the Angels head home to take on the surprising Royals, who aren't plating many runners (3.5 per game), but are allowing even fewer to cross (just over 3 per). Fortunately they miss Brian Bannister and Zack Grienke, but Gil Meche is better than his ERA shows to this point (though Brett Tomko likely isn't). The Angels counter with Jered Weaver and Jon Garland, who could use a game against a low scoring opponent just about now. Just a quick two game set before another showcase series with Seattle this weekend. It would be nice to see them keep the momentum going.
Yesterday they got a less than adequate start out of Dustin Moseley, who gave up four runs in four innings, and really did himself in with five walks. It was the type of start that normal teams expect out of a fifth starter. The good news for the Angels is that Moseley is their seventh starter. The key for the April Angels is to get this team into May without a lot of damage done so that when Lackey and (God willing) Escobar return, they'll be poised for the mid-season run that puts the division away in late July/early August.
Don't look now, but over the last two days, the bullpen has provided seven innings of earned run free baseball, the only blemish coming when Erick Aybar's throwing error in the eight inning on Monday led somewhat indirectly to Frankie Rodriguez's save opportunity. Speaking of Frankie, two innings, two base runners (both walks), two strikeouts, and two scoreless saves, yesterday's being of the 1-2-3 variety. They actually looked like the real Angels bullpen this series. And don't forget Scot Shields' 1.2 IP, 0 baserunners, 2 Ks performance in the two games. It's no secret that the bullpen is going to be essential to the Angels' success this year, and if they can get the 7-8-9 inning guys going, things may turn out OK.
On the offensive side of things, Chone Figgins picked up three more hits in nine at bats, and saw his average drop 10 points. After two straight games without a free pass, he picked up number 13 in 69 plate appearances yesterday. His ability to get on base (currently a .507 clip) is probably THE reason the Angels have the top scoring offense in the league to this point, well, that and the fact that they've played as many or more games than everyone else. Mike Napoli (four homers) continues to pour on the power when he's in the lineup, and Casey "he'll top out at 20-25 homers" Kotchman also hit his fourth of the season. Maybe the experts are right, but my gut tells me he's got 35 homer power in him. Maybe not this year, but at some point.
Next up will be a contrast in styles as the Angels head home to take on the surprising Royals, who aren't plating many runners (3.5 per game), but are allowing even fewer to cross (just over 3 per). Fortunately they miss Brian Bannister and Zack Grienke, but Gil Meche is better than his ERA shows to this point (though Brett Tomko likely isn't). The Angels counter with Jered Weaver and Jon Garland, who could use a game against a low scoring opponent just about now. Just a quick two game set before another showcase series with Seattle this weekend. It would be nice to see them keep the momentum going.
Monday, April 14, 2008
One of Three
I think we all wish things would have gone a little differently in Seattle over the weekend, but them's the breaks, and when all is said and done, 1-2 in their building isn't all that awful.
Cause for concern:
In Figgins' case, I think we're getting past the point where we can call his success over the last four and a half months of regular season action a fluke. I've mentioned before that I think somewhere between .300 and .310 is a fairly conservative, yet realistic estimate of what he can do this year, and if the plate discipline (12 walks in 50 plate appearances) is real, and I suspect it is (to an extent - I think one walk every 8-9 appearances is a realistic goal), then he could be poised for a very fine season.
Kendrick is Kendrick, and if he's in the lineup, he's going to hit. He doesn't seem to be a guy that pitchers can figure out for very long. As he makes his way around the league a few times, they may catch up to him a bit, but he's had sustained success at the lower levels, and he just seems like the type that will be able to adjust to what the pitchers at this level will do.
As for Kotchman, the average isn't a surprise. I don't expect .370, but it's a small sample, and I do expect him, if healthy, to stay north of .300 all year, and if things break right, .325 or so isn't out of the question. As for the three homers, I'm not surprised. I know the pundits don't expect him to ever show a ton of power, and maybe their right. But what I saw last year and this are: 1) a lot of doubles, which usually portend decent power numbers; and 2) although he didn't hit a lot of homers last year, many of them were LONG home runs. He wasn't hitting shots that scraped the wall. He crushed a few of them deep into the right field seats, which isn't easy to do in Anaheim. Already this year he killed one in Minnesota, AND he hit one out in Seattle that was on a pretty good pitch, not a pitch a guy with little power should have been able to hit out. The predictions are that he'll top out around 25 homers. I think we may see that many, or more, this year assuming good health (a big assumption).
The Angels routinely have trouble firing on all cylinders at this point in the season. They muddle along doing some things well and other things not so well until they hit a summer stretch where they start to assert themselves. That's pretty much what I see happening this year as well.
Cause for concern:
- Two straight poor outings from Jon Garland.
- The bullpen continues to be less than impressive.
- Nobody seems to be able to get Raul Ibanez out.
- Gary Matthews Jr. is an out-making machine.
- Despite the flood of offense so far this season, the Angels sit just one game over .500.
- Howie Kendrick can't seem to stay healthy.
- The defense is at times not so good.
- Lackey's throwing again.
- Frankie's velocity was up a bit yesterday, even though his location wasn't great. Maybe getting guys back into their normal roles will help everyone calm down a bit.
- Raul Ibanez doesn't play for the Rangers.
- I'm sorry, I can't think of anything positive about Matthews.
- Howie, when healthy, is on fire.
In Figgins' case, I think we're getting past the point where we can call his success over the last four and a half months of regular season action a fluke. I've mentioned before that I think somewhere between .300 and .310 is a fairly conservative, yet realistic estimate of what he can do this year, and if the plate discipline (12 walks in 50 plate appearances) is real, and I suspect it is (to an extent - I think one walk every 8-9 appearances is a realistic goal), then he could be poised for a very fine season.
Kendrick is Kendrick, and if he's in the lineup, he's going to hit. He doesn't seem to be a guy that pitchers can figure out for very long. As he makes his way around the league a few times, they may catch up to him a bit, but he's had sustained success at the lower levels, and he just seems like the type that will be able to adjust to what the pitchers at this level will do.
As for Kotchman, the average isn't a surprise. I don't expect .370, but it's a small sample, and I do expect him, if healthy, to stay north of .300 all year, and if things break right, .325 or so isn't out of the question. As for the three homers, I'm not surprised. I know the pundits don't expect him to ever show a ton of power, and maybe their right. But what I saw last year and this are: 1) a lot of doubles, which usually portend decent power numbers; and 2) although he didn't hit a lot of homers last year, many of them were LONG home runs. He wasn't hitting shots that scraped the wall. He crushed a few of them deep into the right field seats, which isn't easy to do in Anaheim. Already this year he killed one in Minnesota, AND he hit one out in Seattle that was on a pretty good pitch, not a pitch a guy with little power should have been able to hit out. The predictions are that he'll top out around 25 homers. I think we may see that many, or more, this year assuming good health (a big assumption).
The Angels routinely have trouble firing on all cylinders at this point in the season. They muddle along doing some things well and other things not so well until they hit a summer stretch where they start to assert themselves. That's pretty much what I see happening this year as well.
Labels:
Angels,
Casey Kotchman,
chone figgins,
Howie Kendrick,
MLB
Sunday, April 13, 2008
0 for 2. Series Finale Tomorrow
Until then, enjoy some Paisley Underground. This be the Long Ryders. Unfortunately, there is a severe lack of "Here Comes That Train Again" and "The Light Gets In The Way" on youtube.
Looking For Lewis and Clark
Lights of Downtown
Gunslinger Man
Looking For Lewis and Clark
Lights of Downtown
Gunslinger Man
Thursday, April 10, 2008
10 Games In
After ten games and three series, the Angels sit at 6-4. It's been a bit of a roller coaster start, with standout performances on the mound by Joe Saunders and Jon Garland, and awful perfomances from Dustin Moseley and......Jon Garland. A couple of blow out losses have pushed the team ERA up a bit, but for the most part, all things considered, the starters have been fairly decent. Ervin Santana has been solid in two starts and has a 1-0 record to show for it. Jered Weaver and Joe Saunders have also tossed two quality starts. When John Lackey returns and replaces Dustin Moseley, the staff will look very strong.
The bullpen, on the other hand, has been shaky at best, not exactly a surprise. Darren O'Day is the only reliever with an ERA under three, but he's pitched a little worse than that suggests, allowing nearing two baserunners per inning. Frankie is hobbled, and it's affecting his velocity. Shields is still trying to work his way back. Speier had a chance to show everyone that maybe letting Frankie walk wouldn't be such a bad decision, and promptly gave up a two run bomb to Travis Hafner. Best case, Frankie gets healthy, Shields works to full strength, and this becomes a strong unit again, but for now, the bullpen is a weak link.
Offensively, the punchless Angels are tied for the AL lead in homers with 14, four coming from newly acquired Torii Hunter, including a walk-off grand slam the other night. Six different Angels have homered, and five have done it more than once. Hindered by a slow start last season, Chone Figgins is showing that his hot finish was no fluke. His 14 hits leads the AL, and don't look now, folks, but he has eight, count 'em EIGHT walks. He trails only Luke Scott in OBP, and that's in 20 more plate appearances. Of course everything in this post comes with the sample size caveat, but if the plate discipline is real, he could have a tremendous season. Staying on the infield, Howie Kendrick is showing that both his ability to hit for average, and his propensity for injury are real. His 429/467/571 start is terrific, but he's already missing time because of a hand injury sustained on a pitch that didn't even hit him. He's looked very good on defense as well. Meanwhile, Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis, while getting it done in the field, have left their good springs in Tempe and are struggling at the plate.
In the outfield, Juan Rivera and Reggie Willits can't be happy the way things are shaking out, and you have to figure that at least one of them will be gone in a couple of months for bullpen help. But you just never know who is going to get injured, especially with four aging starters in the current outfield/DH rotation. The two have four at bats between them. The rest of the outfield has nine home runs collectively. Hunter, Matthews, and Guerrero have combined for seven of those homers, and all are hitting .300 or above. Behind the dish, Mike Napoli's underwhelming .231/.286 is nicely offset by his three homers (one a grand slam) and .615 slugging percentage. Jeff Mathis isn't going to hit, but he can play defense.
So at this point of the season, there haven't been any big surprises, outside of Figgins' sudden ability to take a walk or eight. Over his career, he generally draws about one walk every ten or eleven plate appearances, which isn't bad, but not ideal for a lead off hitter. This year he's up to one every five or six. I don't think anyone expects him to maintain that pace, but if he can keep it around 1/8 or so, that would be a fantastic ISO OBP, combined with a batting average around .300, that would put his OBP around .400 or above, a mark he's never surpassed in a season, not even last year when he hit .330. That's where it all starts. If he can jumpstart the offense like that, the Angels will be in very good shape, especially with a lineup that doesn't really give a pitcher a break until the 8th spot, and even then, you'll mostly have Mike Napoli and his power in that lineup position.
A big series up in Seattle starts tomorrow night. The games themselves aren't particularly important (though every game is somewhat important), but right now, the Mariners are trying to convince themselves that they're the team to beat in the West. If the Angels can go up into their building and take a couple of victories, it could help to sow the seeds of doubt that still linger around the Mariners. If the Mariners come away with a sweep, it will be a big boost of confidence that can take them through the early portion of their schedule. Both teams have their top three starters lined up, and both teams have bullpens that are really struggling, so it should be a very competitive series.
The bullpen, on the other hand, has been shaky at best, not exactly a surprise. Darren O'Day is the only reliever with an ERA under three, but he's pitched a little worse than that suggests, allowing nearing two baserunners per inning. Frankie is hobbled, and it's affecting his velocity. Shields is still trying to work his way back. Speier had a chance to show everyone that maybe letting Frankie walk wouldn't be such a bad decision, and promptly gave up a two run bomb to Travis Hafner. Best case, Frankie gets healthy, Shields works to full strength, and this becomes a strong unit again, but for now, the bullpen is a weak link.
Offensively, the punchless Angels are tied for the AL lead in homers with 14, four coming from newly acquired Torii Hunter, including a walk-off grand slam the other night. Six different Angels have homered, and five have done it more than once. Hindered by a slow start last season, Chone Figgins is showing that his hot finish was no fluke. His 14 hits leads the AL, and don't look now, folks, but he has eight, count 'em EIGHT walks. He trails only Luke Scott in OBP, and that's in 20 more plate appearances. Of course everything in this post comes with the sample size caveat, but if the plate discipline is real, he could have a tremendous season. Staying on the infield, Howie Kendrick is showing that both his ability to hit for average, and his propensity for injury are real. His 429/467/571 start is terrific, but he's already missing time because of a hand injury sustained on a pitch that didn't even hit him. He's looked very good on defense as well. Meanwhile, Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis, while getting it done in the field, have left their good springs in Tempe and are struggling at the plate.
In the outfield, Juan Rivera and Reggie Willits can't be happy the way things are shaking out, and you have to figure that at least one of them will be gone in a couple of months for bullpen help. But you just never know who is going to get injured, especially with four aging starters in the current outfield/DH rotation. The two have four at bats between them. The rest of the outfield has nine home runs collectively. Hunter, Matthews, and Guerrero have combined for seven of those homers, and all are hitting .300 or above. Behind the dish, Mike Napoli's underwhelming .231/.286 is nicely offset by his three homers (one a grand slam) and .615 slugging percentage. Jeff Mathis isn't going to hit, but he can play defense.
So at this point of the season, there haven't been any big surprises, outside of Figgins' sudden ability to take a walk or eight. Over his career, he generally draws about one walk every ten or eleven plate appearances, which isn't bad, but not ideal for a lead off hitter. This year he's up to one every five or six. I don't think anyone expects him to maintain that pace, but if he can keep it around 1/8 or so, that would be a fantastic ISO OBP, combined with a batting average around .300, that would put his OBP around .400 or above, a mark he's never surpassed in a season, not even last year when he hit .330. That's where it all starts. If he can jumpstart the offense like that, the Angels will be in very good shape, especially with a lineup that doesn't really give a pitcher a break until the 8th spot, and even then, you'll mostly have Mike Napoli and his power in that lineup position.
A big series up in Seattle starts tomorrow night. The games themselves aren't particularly important (though every game is somewhat important), but right now, the Mariners are trying to convince themselves that they're the team to beat in the West. If the Angels can go up into their building and take a couple of victories, it could help to sow the seeds of doubt that still linger around the Mariners. If the Mariners come away with a sweep, it will be a big boost of confidence that can take them through the early portion of their schedule. Both teams have their top three starters lined up, and both teams have bullpens that are really struggling, so it should be a very competitive series.
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
UPDATED: On The Plus Side, UCLA Will Get Younger
UPDATE: Apparently the reports are false, for now. Love and Collison both say they haven't even talked to their families about their decisions yet, and as such, no decisions have been made. Either someone has made something up, or was bamboozled. Still, I'll leave this up in the event that a week from now, this information becomes relevant again.
Kevin Love? Gone
Darren Collison? Gone
Russel Westbrook? Leaning towards going.
And that's just the beginning.
According to both the L.A. Times and Brian Dohn, UCLA will likely take the floor next year without their three best players, which really isn't a surprise to anyone who's been following the team for the past few months. Love and Collison were expected to go before the season even started, and Westbrook's draft status has been on the rise all season.
As Nestor pointed out, there is a scenario in which up to eight players on this year's roster could be gone. Lorenzo Mata-Real is graduating. LRMAM will likely put his name into the draft and get evaluated before making a decision to hire an agent. Alfred Aboya has hinted that he may not return after earning his degree this year. Nikola Dragovic, hurting for playing time, may head back to Europe. And finally, Josh Shipp may decide that four years and the exit of the rest of his draft class is a sign that he's been around long enough.
So what happens if all of this comes to pass? Well, Ben Howland picked a good year to bring in a number one recruiting class, and he may not be done. There are some big man prospects that could fill out the class. It means that Jrue Holiday, Malcolm Lee, and Jerime Anderson are going to see a ton of playing time in their first year, which will be good for Lee and Anderson, since they're the only two likely to be back in 2009-2010. Sucks for Holiday, who will be around in a rebuilding year, then gone.
So next year's team will be interesting to watch, and great to root for, but I wouldn't expect too much. It took the Farmar, Afflalo, Shipp, Mata class two years to reach the championship game. UCLA will be down, but not out. Best of luck to all of those Bruins, whatever they decide.
Kevin Love? Gone
Darren Collison? Gone
Russel Westbrook? Leaning towards going.
And that's just the beginning.
According to both the L.A. Times and Brian Dohn, UCLA will likely take the floor next year without their three best players, which really isn't a surprise to anyone who's been following the team for the past few months. Love and Collison were expected to go before the season even started, and Westbrook's draft status has been on the rise all season.
As Nestor pointed out, there is a scenario in which up to eight players on this year's roster could be gone. Lorenzo Mata-Real is graduating. LRMAM will likely put his name into the draft and get evaluated before making a decision to hire an agent. Alfred Aboya has hinted that he may not return after earning his degree this year. Nikola Dragovic, hurting for playing time, may head back to Europe. And finally, Josh Shipp may decide that four years and the exit of the rest of his draft class is a sign that he's been around long enough.
So what happens if all of this comes to pass? Well, Ben Howland picked a good year to bring in a number one recruiting class, and he may not be done. There are some big man prospects that could fill out the class. It means that Jrue Holiday, Malcolm Lee, and Jerime Anderson are going to see a ton of playing time in their first year, which will be good for Lee and Anderson, since they're the only two likely to be back in 2009-2010. Sucks for Holiday, who will be around in a rebuilding year, then gone.
So next year's team will be interesting to watch, and great to root for, but I wouldn't expect too much. It took the Farmar, Afflalo, Shipp, Mata class two years to reach the championship game. UCLA will be down, but not out. Best of luck to all of those Bruins, whatever they decide.
Monday, April 07, 2008
I Remember How the Darkness Tripled: UCLA Bows Out Again
I've gotta say, I took this loss surprisingly well, probably because I was sober (unlike last year), and because even though the Bruins made a run or two, I never really felt like they were in the game. In all of their big comebacks this season, there was a sense of 'what the hell is going on' when the opponent was building it's lead. Those were games in which the opponents didn't look that great, but the Bruins clearly were simply not playing well. I didn't get that feeling on Saturday. I got the feeling that the Bruins were playing poorly because Memphis was forcing them to play poorly, and subsequently, I never really expected the big run that would make the game close.
For the third straight year, the Bruins fell victim to matchup problems. Derrick Rose was simply too big and strong for Darren Collison, and Rose was their smallest guy most of the time. Memphis drove to the basket very well, and created a lot of help situations that led to offensive rebounds and easy put backs. They torched the Bruins in transition. The Tigers' superior athleticism and ability to finish was really the Bruins' undoing on the defensive end.
When they had the ball, UCLA had a hard time holding onto it. They turned it over 12 times, often with sloppy plays or lapses in concentration. James Keefe dropped a rebound out of bounds with no Tiger within 50 feet. Russel Westbrook dropped on in bounds pass off his foot. Darren Collison stepped out of bounds on what could have been a fast break, one of his five turnovers in a game he'd really just like to forget. He made only one of nine shots, a floater at the end of the first half that pulled the Bruins to within three, giving us all hope at halftime. Only Russell Westbrook, with 22 points on 10-19 shooting made more than half his shots, and he did nothing to lower his NBA stock.
In the end, Memphis was simply more athletic and longer. I won't say they're more talented, because UCLA is very talented, but the matchups were simply not in their favor, and they had to play a top notch game to beat Memphis. As it turns out, they played one of their worst. But with a couple of days to reflect, I'd like to put a couple of myths to rest:
For the third straight year, the Bruins fell victim to matchup problems. Derrick Rose was simply too big and strong for Darren Collison, and Rose was their smallest guy most of the time. Memphis drove to the basket very well, and created a lot of help situations that led to offensive rebounds and easy put backs. They torched the Bruins in transition. The Tigers' superior athleticism and ability to finish was really the Bruins' undoing on the defensive end.
When they had the ball, UCLA had a hard time holding onto it. They turned it over 12 times, often with sloppy plays or lapses in concentration. James Keefe dropped a rebound out of bounds with no Tiger within 50 feet. Russel Westbrook dropped on in bounds pass off his foot. Darren Collison stepped out of bounds on what could have been a fast break, one of his five turnovers in a game he'd really just like to forget. He made only one of nine shots, a floater at the end of the first half that pulled the Bruins to within three, giving us all hope at halftime. Only Russell Westbrook, with 22 points on 10-19 shooting made more than half his shots, and he did nothing to lower his NBA stock.
In the end, Memphis was simply more athletic and longer. I won't say they're more talented, because UCLA is very talented, but the matchups were simply not in their favor, and they had to play a top notch game to beat Memphis. As it turns out, they played one of their worst. But with a couple of days to reflect, I'd like to put a couple of myths to rest:
- Ben Howland does not need to do anything different. He's reached the final four for the third straight year. From 1981 to his hiring in 2003, UCLA reached two final fours. He's doing something right, and in a one and done tournament, too much emphasis is placed on one game. He doesn't need to teach a zone. He doesn't need to run a different offense. He doesn't need to manage time outs differently. He just needs to keep doing what he's doing. And you can argue that he needs better athletes, but can really argue with the guy who's bringing in the top recruiting class in the country next season?
- Kevin Love and Darren Collison are no more or less ready for the NBA than they were before the Memphis game. If you're draft expert, and you had these guys in your lottery/top 20 before the game, and have now dropped them, you're a really crappy draft expert. I'm not trying to argue that they are or aren't lottery picks. But you've had an entire season to evaluate them, and you've essentially boiled it down to one game. You're either wrong now, or you weren't doing your job back then, but either way, just stop it. You're embarrassing yourself. That goes for the all of the amateur draft experts on message boards across the country. Alex Rodriguez doesn't stop being a hall of famer after a bad week. These guys are the same players everyone was drooling over a week ago.
Friday, April 04, 2008
Thoughts on Tomorrow's Final Four
I tend to be a pessimist when I'm around optimistic people, and I tend to be an optimist when I'm around naysayers. So there are groups of Bruins fans out there who should probably temper their enthusiasm, but some of the local scribes should probably watch some tapes of UCLA's exits the last two years.
Memphis, like Florida, is long and athletic. They have a great point guard, and come at you with a lot of size. But there are two key differences between the teams that will take the floor tomorrow and the teams that played the last two years:
The first is that there is no Corey Brewer. He was the true matchup nightmare for the Bruins the last two years, and not surprisingly, he led the Gators in scoring in last year's national semi. He was a 6'9" wing player who dwarfed just about any Bruin who tried to guard him. He created all sorts of problems both in the paint and from beyond the arc, going 4-5 from three. Chris Douglas-Roberts will not be easy to guard, and he's the most Brewer-esque player on the Tigers. But he'll likely be guarded by UCLA's best and most athletic defender. And while he'll take the three, he prefers to take the ball to the basket. If Westbrook can slow him down on the perimeter, and funnel him towards UCLA's interior players, they may be able to neutralize him somewhat. They aren't going to stop him, but they may be able to slow him down. And while Memphis is strong inside, they aren't as skilled as Florida was in the paint last year.
The second huge difference is Kevin Love. Last year, Aaron Afflalo was limited by early (questionable) fouls. Without him, the offense essentially relied on Darren Collison and Josh Shipp. Shipp responded with a solid 18 points, and Afflalo chipped in 17, many after the game had already been decided. This year a great deal of the offense still comes from the guards, but the addition of Love provides the Bruins an opportunity to look for easier baskets when shots aren't falling, and keeps opponents from focusing all of their efforts on the perimeter. In last year's game, early in the second half, the Bruins trailed the Gators 32-28 following a Mike Roll three pointer. Six minutes later, they trailed 49-32. In that stretch, they missed five jumpers and three layups. They didn't have an interior threat to turn to when the going got tough on the outside. The balance they bring this year should keep them from going long stretches without scoring.
There are other factors as well. First is the experience the Bruins bring. It's a big week for these kids, and though they're used to being on TV and being hounded by the press, the final four is a bit of a different animal. UCLA's experience with the week and its demands should be a plus. Second, UCLA has time and again found the ability to overcome large second half deficits. There was a sense last year (rightly so) that when Florida went on their run that the Bruins were done for. I'm not so sure that will be the case this year. They seem to find a way to lock down on defense, and slowly chip away at a lead until it's gone. They won't be rattled.
Memphis is a great team, to be sure, and I'm not going to predict a result one way or the other. But I think UCLA is in a much better position now than they were last year.
Memphis, like Florida, is long and athletic. They have a great point guard, and come at you with a lot of size. But there are two key differences between the teams that will take the floor tomorrow and the teams that played the last two years:
The first is that there is no Corey Brewer. He was the true matchup nightmare for the Bruins the last two years, and not surprisingly, he led the Gators in scoring in last year's national semi. He was a 6'9" wing player who dwarfed just about any Bruin who tried to guard him. He created all sorts of problems both in the paint and from beyond the arc, going 4-5 from three. Chris Douglas-Roberts will not be easy to guard, and he's the most Brewer-esque player on the Tigers. But he'll likely be guarded by UCLA's best and most athletic defender. And while he'll take the three, he prefers to take the ball to the basket. If Westbrook can slow him down on the perimeter, and funnel him towards UCLA's interior players, they may be able to neutralize him somewhat. They aren't going to stop him, but they may be able to slow him down. And while Memphis is strong inside, they aren't as skilled as Florida was in the paint last year.
The second huge difference is Kevin Love. Last year, Aaron Afflalo was limited by early (questionable) fouls. Without him, the offense essentially relied on Darren Collison and Josh Shipp. Shipp responded with a solid 18 points, and Afflalo chipped in 17, many after the game had already been decided. This year a great deal of the offense still comes from the guards, but the addition of Love provides the Bruins an opportunity to look for easier baskets when shots aren't falling, and keeps opponents from focusing all of their efforts on the perimeter. In last year's game, early in the second half, the Bruins trailed the Gators 32-28 following a Mike Roll three pointer. Six minutes later, they trailed 49-32. In that stretch, they missed five jumpers and three layups. They didn't have an interior threat to turn to when the going got tough on the outside. The balance they bring this year should keep them from going long stretches without scoring.
There are other factors as well. First is the experience the Bruins bring. It's a big week for these kids, and though they're used to being on TV and being hounded by the press, the final four is a bit of a different animal. UCLA's experience with the week and its demands should be a plus. Second, UCLA has time and again found the ability to overcome large second half deficits. There was a sense last year (rightly so) that when Florida went on their run that the Bruins were done for. I'm not so sure that will be the case this year. They seem to find a way to lock down on defense, and slowly chip away at a lead until it's gone. They won't be rattled.
Memphis is a great team, to be sure, and I'm not going to predict a result one way or the other. But I think UCLA is in a much better position now than they were last year.
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Angels 5; Twins 4
Another one run game with the Twins, another win, and all of the gnashing of teeth after the season opening loss is forgotten for another day. Matthews, Hunter, and Napoli left the yard. Ervin looked fine, but ran into some trouble in the sixth. Oliver looked a little less than great. Speier appeared to show a little rust as well. Another double for Howie, who has a hit in every game so far this year.
The Angels almost made it out of this series without allowing a home run, while Ervin Santana gave the Angels starting staff their fourth quality start in as many attempts. Everyone wants Lackey back as soon as possible, myself included. And we all want Kelvim back period, but who knows how long that will take. Just the same, it looks like the healthy guys are out to prove that they can hold down the fort until the reinforcements arrive.
Three errors in the series, one on a poor Figgins throw today. Two in yesterday's game, an Aybar bobble and a Mathis heave into center field. But aside from that, and a couple of opening day mistakes in left field, the defense has looked pretty good. They turned seven double plays in the series, and that's one way to increase the number of quality starts.
No one is expecting the Twins to set the world on fire, so it's not as if this 3-1 series win is grounds for a party, but at the end of the day, the Angels are left with four more home games than road games, and they have a nice jump on a good road record.
To sum up, the pitching and defense have been great. The hitting has been adequate. Good power for their first series. Good starts for Figgins, Kotchman, and Kendrick, and Matthews, probably the four most important pieces to the offensive puzzle this year (I'm penciling good years from Vlad and Hunter). An all around nice way to start the season.
The Angels almost made it out of this series without allowing a home run, while Ervin Santana gave the Angels starting staff their fourth quality start in as many attempts. Everyone wants Lackey back as soon as possible, myself included. And we all want Kelvim back period, but who knows how long that will take. Just the same, it looks like the healthy guys are out to prove that they can hold down the fort until the reinforcements arrive.
Three errors in the series, one on a poor Figgins throw today. Two in yesterday's game, an Aybar bobble and a Mathis heave into center field. But aside from that, and a couple of opening day mistakes in left field, the defense has looked pretty good. They turned seven double plays in the series, and that's one way to increase the number of quality starts.
No one is expecting the Twins to set the world on fire, so it's not as if this 3-1 series win is grounds for a party, but at the end of the day, the Angels are left with four more home games than road games, and they have a nice jump on a good road record.
To sum up, the pitching and defense have been great. The hitting has been adequate. Good power for their first series. Good starts for Figgins, Kotchman, and Kendrick, and Matthews, probably the four most important pieces to the offensive puzzle this year (I'm penciling good years from Vlad and Hunter). An all around nice way to start the season.
Angels 1; Twins 0 - Angels now over .500
Joe Saunders came into Spring not even assured of a starting job, though it's safe to say he had the inside track. A solid spring, and two injuries later, and he slid into the #3 role, where he delivered an ace-like performance. He needed only 80 pitches, 52 of the strikes, to complete eight innings, striking out four while only walking one. Had it not been for an opening two games that hadn't required a closer, he might have been allowed to go the distance. But Mike Scioscia needed to get Frankie Rodriguez some work, and after a brief hiccup to start the ninth, he got a little lucky when Carlos Gomez decided to try a two strike bunt that failed for the first out. He induced a double play grounder from pinch hitter Joe Mauer, the seventh double play hit into by the Twins in the first three games of the season.
Nick Blackburn was the hard luck loser, and no doubt he's being snatched up in fantasy leagues as we speak. He allowed five hits, struck out six, and only walked one. His only mistake came in the seventh inning, when he allowed the Angels to score without the ball leaving the infield. Howie Kendrick reached on an infield single to short, moved to second on Jeff Mathis' sac bunt, to third on Erick Aybar's ground out, and pounced at the opportunity to score on Blackburn's wild pitch.
Torii Hunter delivered his first two hits as an Angel, one of which (8th inning) should have delivered an insurance run, but a cautious Gary Matthews held up at third base, and one batter later, Casey Kotchman grounded into a double play ending the half inning.
So the Angels go for the series victory today, and it would be nice to leave the dome with three victories in hand. It's always a tough place for the Angels to play, and it seems like they've played a very high percentage of close games with the Twins over the last six or seven years. Joe Saunders, for his part, leave town with the highest game score of the young season, and he'll lead the league (tied) in ERA for a few days. Now we'll see how Ervin reacts to a day game (horror) on the road (horror of horrors). He's got a chance to make a statement.
Nick Blackburn was the hard luck loser, and no doubt he's being snatched up in fantasy leagues as we speak. He allowed five hits, struck out six, and only walked one. His only mistake came in the seventh inning, when he allowed the Angels to score without the ball leaving the infield. Howie Kendrick reached on an infield single to short, moved to second on Jeff Mathis' sac bunt, to third on Erick Aybar's ground out, and pounced at the opportunity to score on Blackburn's wild pitch.
Torii Hunter delivered his first two hits as an Angel, one of which (8th inning) should have delivered an insurance run, but a cautious Gary Matthews held up at third base, and one batter later, Casey Kotchman grounded into a double play ending the half inning.
So the Angels go for the series victory today, and it would be nice to leave the dome with three victories in hand. It's always a tough place for the Angels to play, and it seems like they've played a very high percentage of close games with the Twins over the last six or seven years. Joe Saunders, for his part, leave town with the highest game score of the young season, and he'll lead the league (tied) in ERA for a few days. Now we'll see how Ervin reacts to a day game (horror) on the road (horror of horrors). He's got a chance to make a statement.
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Angels 9; Twins 1
Well, that ought to quiet the chicken littles for at least a day. I actually missed most of this one due to a hockey game, but I breezed through the recording from my DVR to watch the run scoring, which means I didn't take a lot of time to witness the greatness that was Jon Garland. His K/9 right now is 0.00, which means he sucks according to most people I read. Of course, if you can get through eight innings, allowing only six baserunners, two of whom were eliminated via the double play (grounded into by guys you failed to strike out), you'll probably have a good day. Pitchers can control or fail to control three things, so says the theory. They can or cannot strike guys out, they can or cannot not walk guys, and they can or cannot keep the ball in the ball park. Do two of those things well, and we'll let the third thing take care of itself.
On the other side of the dish, every Angel starter aside from Torii Hunter had a hit, and even Hunter reached base safely via the HBP. Mike Napoli and Casey Kotchman both found the seats, Howie Kendrick didn't walk, but did deliver three hits (don't get excited, though, because he doesn't walk so he's not that good). Vlad is becoming Vlad again, with three hits, four total bases, and three RBIs. GA delivered his first three hits of the season as well.
1-1, with 160 to go.
On the other side of the dish, every Angel starter aside from Torii Hunter had a hit, and even Hunter reached base safely via the HBP. Mike Napoli and Casey Kotchman both found the seats, Howie Kendrick didn't walk, but did deliver three hits (don't get excited, though, because he doesn't walk so he's not that good). Vlad is becoming Vlad again, with three hits, four total bases, and three RBIs. GA delivered his first three hits of the season as well.
1-1, with 160 to go.
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Monday, March 31, 2008
Angels 2;Twins 3
Well, they weren't going to win all of them. Jered Weaver threw too many pitches and struggled to stay ahead at times. The big bats provided absolutely nothing. Garret Anderson misplayed two balls in left field. And that's the kind of thing that happens on opening day.
I'm not really going to worry about this one too much. The Angels have struggled for years against soft tossing junkballers, which is basically what Livan Hernandez has become. He threw only 84 pitches in seven innings, and far too often the Angel hitters got themselves out. On the flipside, Jered Weaver took 106 pitches to get through six and third, 41 of those were out of the strike zone. He did strike out five against two walks (the Angels walked zero times, surprise surprise). Weaver oscillated between sharp and shaky. Add that to the poor defense on the two popups to shallow left, and the Twins got just enough.
There were a couple bright spots. Darren Oliver came in and got two outs on four pitches. Casey Kotchman singled three times, and Chone Figgins added two hits of his own.
Another close one with the Twins. This one didn't go the Angels' way. That's why there's a tomorrow.
I'm not really going to worry about this one too much. The Angels have struggled for years against soft tossing junkballers, which is basically what Livan Hernandez has become. He threw only 84 pitches in seven innings, and far too often the Angel hitters got themselves out. On the flipside, Jered Weaver took 106 pitches to get through six and third, 41 of those were out of the strike zone. He did strike out five against two walks (the Angels walked zero times, surprise surprise). Weaver oscillated between sharp and shaky. Add that to the poor defense on the two popups to shallow left, and the Twins got just enough.
There were a couple bright spots. Darren Oliver came in and got two outs on four pitches. Casey Kotchman singled three times, and Chone Figgins added two hits of his own.
Another close one with the Twins. This one didn't go the Angels' way. That's why there's a tomorrow.
Opening Damn Day!
How about I revisit the Spring Training Preview, with new comments in Halo Red:
Brian Ward asked me to put something together about the Angels for his Spring Training blog. They're getting this together for every team. My contribution is below. Feel free to tell me why I'm an idiot. (Please don't call me an idiot). FWIW, I was just on a conference call today where we made plans to go to a client location in Phoenix the first week of March. Spring Training was the first thing that popped into my head. (We didn't get to any games, but I drove past Diablo Stadium like three times a day).
Location: Tempe Diablo Stadium
Pitchers and Catcher Report: February 14th
First game: February 28th
Schedule
Projected Opening Day Lineup
Projected Rotation
Obviously Lackey and Escobar are on the DL, possibly for a long, long time in the case of Escobar. But the other four all had solid springs, and if they can weather the storm until Lackey comes back to full strength, they should be fine. I would not expect Escobar back this year.
Bullpen
Long – Ervin Santana
Situational – Darren Oliver, Dustin Moseley, Jason Bulger, Chris Bootcheck
7th Inning – Justin Speier
8th Inning – Scot Shields
Closer – Francisco Rodriguez
Santana clearly moves out of this role and into the rotation for probably the entire season, or until he pitches himself out of it, whichever comes first. Moseley enters the rotation for the beginning of the year. Bootcheck and Shields are hurt. Looks like Rich Thompson and Darren O'Day will fill their slots for the first part of the year. The back end of the rotation stays intact.
Key Battles: The biggest question mark going into Spring Training is clearly at shortstop. The off-season trade of Orlando Cabrera, which brought pitcher John Garland in return, opened up the shortstop spot for a battle between Maicer Izturis and prospects Erick Aybar and Brandon Wood. Aybar appears to be the early favorite based on public comments by Mike Scioscia, who favors the young Dominican for his defense and ability to make contact. Izturis is more of a proven performer at the plate, and is solid defensively, but has never put everything together for a whole season. He also provides the versatility to sub at third base and second base if needed. Wood is a long shot, but if he explodes this Spring, he could force some difficult decisions for the Angels brain trust.
Wood didn't explode. Aybar looked surprisingly good, and I expect him to play a lot, even with Izturis getting the opening day start. Maicer hit .365/.431/.500 in 52 at bats, while Aybar showed good power, hitting .274/324/.532, including four homers. This was probably the best case for the Angels. Both players responded to the competition and they go into the season with both playing well. I didn't see many games, but reports on Aybar's defense were positive as well.
The Cabrera/Garland trade has also created somewhat of a logjam in the starting rotation where, upon the return of Kelvim Escobar, the Angels will have six starters for only five starting spots. Ervin Santana will more than likely start the season in the rotation and remain there as long as Escobar is out. When Escobar gets healthy, Santana figures to be the odd man out, but he could beat out lefty Joe Saunders for the fifth spot. He remains the number one option to make spot starts, or to fill rotation holes should anyone else get injured. Either way, Garland’s addition added depth to an already excellent starting staff.
Who knew they'd really need that depth this early. As it turns out, the deal was very prescient, both because of the need at starter and because of the developments at short. Moseley had a decent spring, giving up four runs in 12 innings, with a solid 1.25 WHIP, but only six strike outs. Still, they'll only ask for six innings and chance to win from their fifth starter until Lackey returns. And hopefully, with Santana still a question mark (4.26 spring ERA in 31.2 IP), maybe Moseley will use this as a chance to make his case for a starting job.
The acquisition of Torii Hunter created the proverbial good problem to have, as the Angels head into the Spring with five outfielders who could start for at least two thirds of the league, and a sixth who could probably start for 6-8 more. Hunter as the every day center fielder seems to be the only lock at this point. Vladimir Guerrero figures to split time between right field and DH, while Garret Anderson will do the same at the left field/DH spot. There are questions about how much Anderson has left in the tank, but after returning to full health he exploded over the last two and a half months of the season, when he put up a line of .350/.409/.650. It remains to be seen whether that was a fluke, or whether he can carry that forward to 2008. Gary Matthews Jr. will play everywhere, depending on who needs a day off, and who is DHing. For the moment, this leaves both Juan Rivera, one season removed from bad broken leg, and Reggie Willits, who exploded at the start of the season before wearing down in the last few months, on the outside looking in. Both figure to be tradable commodities prior to opening day, and a good spring could lead to a deal, perhaps packaged with an arm in return for a big bat. The Angels probably wouldn’t mind moving Matthews as well, but a no trade clause stands in the way.
Six outfielders on the opening day roster. Hunter had a tremendous spring (.345/.367/.707), as did Gary Matthews (.449/.472/.612). In fact, the six outfielders hit a combined .334/.372/.544 in roughly 300 total at bats. That's some pretty solid depth, and it will be interesting to see how Scioscia gets all these guys involved. And with the pitching issues, it wouldn't be a shock to see one of them gone before June.
Waiting in the wings is Kendry Morales, who started to show what he could do at the plate, hitting .323/.343/.462 over the last month of the season. He could see time at first base if the Angels decide to sit Casey Kotchman against tough lefties, but to this point, Morales has been a better hitter from the left side of the plate, so there may not be much platoon advantage there, and the Angels could decide to stick with Robb Quinlan in that role. Both have seen limited time in the outfield, giving the Angels a seventh option should the need arise, though that seems unlikely.
Morales (.385/.484/.558 - 52 at bats) had an excellent spring, as did Quinlan (.317/.333/.439 - 41 at bats). Kotchman was less than stellar, but wasn't really competing for a job. What really stands out are the seven walks drawn by Kendry in those 52 at bats. Pretty incredible for a guy with extremely questionable plate discipline.
A smaller skirmish will take place behind the plate, where Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis will split time. The only question is which one will take over the primary duties. Napoli has the superior stick, with a 109 OPS+ over his first 174 games, while Mathis provides better defense. Napoli struggled a bit at the plate after returning from injury over the last month of the season, but even his .707 OPS over that period was far superior to anything Mathis has been able to put up over any month in his career.
No surprise here. It was Napoli winning the job, although Mathis had a pretty decent spring. They're catchers, so there's going to be plenty of playing time for both anyway.
What To Expect: Aybar will be given every opportunity to succeed at shortstop, but if he can’t cut it, the Angels may back into a better option with Izturis. Expect Wood to start the season in Salt Lake with a mandate to improve his ability to make contact. I’d be a bit surprised if they broke camp with both Willits and Rivera, as neither figures to be in their top four outfielders unless they can find someone to take Matthews and his big contract off their hands. It’s doubtful that all six starting pitchers will be ready to go in the first week, so I wouldn’t expect the fifth spot in the rotation to be decided until a week or two into April.
They didn't back into a better option at short - Izturis won it outright. Wood will start the season in Salt Lake because he was not very good this spring, but he's still young, so I'm not particularly worried. I'm surprised they still have all six outfielders. I don't expect the rotation issues to be settled until mid to late May. But I do expect the Angels to win the division. Oakland second. Seattle third. Texas last. Let's play ball!
Brian Ward asked me to put something together about the Angels for his Spring Training blog. They're getting this together for every team. My contribution is below. Feel free to tell me why I'm an idiot. (Please don't call me an idiot). FWIW, I was just on a conference call today where we made plans to go to a client location in Phoenix the first week of March. Spring Training was the first thing that popped into my head. (We didn't get to any games, but I drove past Diablo Stadium like three times a day).
Location: Tempe Diablo Stadium
Pitchers and Catcher Report: February 14th
First game: February 28th
Schedule
Projected Opening Day Lineup
- Chone Figgins (3B)
- Howie Kendrick (2B)
- Vladimir Guerrero (RF)
- Torii Hunter (CF)
- Garret Anderson (DH)
- Casey Kotchman (1B)
- Gary Matthews Jr. (LF)
- Mike Napoli (C)
- Erick Aybar/Maicer Izturis (SS)
Projected Rotation
- John Lackey
- Kelvim Escobar*
- Jered Weaver
- Jon Garland
- Joe Saunders
Obviously Lackey and Escobar are on the DL, possibly for a long, long time in the case of Escobar. But the other four all had solid springs, and if they can weather the storm until Lackey comes back to full strength, they should be fine. I would not expect Escobar back this year.
Bullpen
Long – Ervin Santana
Situational – Darren Oliver, Dustin Moseley, Jason Bulger, Chris Bootcheck
7th Inning – Justin Speier
8th Inning – Scot Shields
Closer – Francisco Rodriguez
Santana clearly moves out of this role and into the rotation for probably the entire season, or until he pitches himself out of it, whichever comes first. Moseley enters the rotation for the beginning of the year. Bootcheck and Shields are hurt. Looks like Rich Thompson and Darren O'Day will fill their slots for the first part of the year. The back end of the rotation stays intact.
Key Battles: The biggest question mark going into Spring Training is clearly at shortstop. The off-season trade of Orlando Cabrera, which brought pitcher John Garland in return, opened up the shortstop spot for a battle between Maicer Izturis and prospects Erick Aybar and Brandon Wood. Aybar appears to be the early favorite based on public comments by Mike Scioscia, who favors the young Dominican for his defense and ability to make contact. Izturis is more of a proven performer at the plate, and is solid defensively, but has never put everything together for a whole season. He also provides the versatility to sub at third base and second base if needed. Wood is a long shot, but if he explodes this Spring, he could force some difficult decisions for the Angels brain trust.
Wood didn't explode. Aybar looked surprisingly good, and I expect him to play a lot, even with Izturis getting the opening day start. Maicer hit .365/.431/.500 in 52 at bats, while Aybar showed good power, hitting .274/324/.532, including four homers. This was probably the best case for the Angels. Both players responded to the competition and they go into the season with both playing well. I didn't see many games, but reports on Aybar's defense were positive as well.
The Cabrera/Garland trade has also created somewhat of a logjam in the starting rotation where, upon the return of Kelvim Escobar, the Angels will have six starters for only five starting spots. Ervin Santana will more than likely start the season in the rotation and remain there as long as Escobar is out. When Escobar gets healthy, Santana figures to be the odd man out, but he could beat out lefty Joe Saunders for the fifth spot. He remains the number one option to make spot starts, or to fill rotation holes should anyone else get injured. Either way, Garland’s addition added depth to an already excellent starting staff.
Who knew they'd really need that depth this early. As it turns out, the deal was very prescient, both because of the need at starter and because of the developments at short. Moseley had a decent spring, giving up four runs in 12 innings, with a solid 1.25 WHIP, but only six strike outs. Still, they'll only ask for six innings and chance to win from their fifth starter until Lackey returns. And hopefully, with Santana still a question mark (4.26 spring ERA in 31.2 IP), maybe Moseley will use this as a chance to make his case for a starting job.
The acquisition of Torii Hunter created the proverbial good problem to have, as the Angels head into the Spring with five outfielders who could start for at least two thirds of the league, and a sixth who could probably start for 6-8 more. Hunter as the every day center fielder seems to be the only lock at this point. Vladimir Guerrero figures to split time between right field and DH, while Garret Anderson will do the same at the left field/DH spot. There are questions about how much Anderson has left in the tank, but after returning to full health he exploded over the last two and a half months of the season, when he put up a line of .350/.409/.650. It remains to be seen whether that was a fluke, or whether he can carry that forward to 2008. Gary Matthews Jr. will play everywhere, depending on who needs a day off, and who is DHing. For the moment, this leaves both Juan Rivera, one season removed from bad broken leg, and Reggie Willits, who exploded at the start of the season before wearing down in the last few months, on the outside looking in. Both figure to be tradable commodities prior to opening day, and a good spring could lead to a deal, perhaps packaged with an arm in return for a big bat. The Angels probably wouldn’t mind moving Matthews as well, but a no trade clause stands in the way.
Six outfielders on the opening day roster. Hunter had a tremendous spring (.345/.367/.707), as did Gary Matthews (.449/.472/.612). In fact, the six outfielders hit a combined .334/.372/.544 in roughly 300 total at bats. That's some pretty solid depth, and it will be interesting to see how Scioscia gets all these guys involved. And with the pitching issues, it wouldn't be a shock to see one of them gone before June.
Waiting in the wings is Kendry Morales, who started to show what he could do at the plate, hitting .323/.343/.462 over the last month of the season. He could see time at first base if the Angels decide to sit Casey Kotchman against tough lefties, but to this point, Morales has been a better hitter from the left side of the plate, so there may not be much platoon advantage there, and the Angels could decide to stick with Robb Quinlan in that role. Both have seen limited time in the outfield, giving the Angels a seventh option should the need arise, though that seems unlikely.
Morales (.385/.484/.558 - 52 at bats) had an excellent spring, as did Quinlan (.317/.333/.439 - 41 at bats). Kotchman was less than stellar, but wasn't really competing for a job. What really stands out are the seven walks drawn by Kendry in those 52 at bats. Pretty incredible for a guy with extremely questionable plate discipline.
A smaller skirmish will take place behind the plate, where Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis will split time. The only question is which one will take over the primary duties. Napoli has the superior stick, with a 109 OPS+ over his first 174 games, while Mathis provides better defense. Napoli struggled a bit at the plate after returning from injury over the last month of the season, but even his .707 OPS over that period was far superior to anything Mathis has been able to put up over any month in his career.
No surprise here. It was Napoli winning the job, although Mathis had a pretty decent spring. They're catchers, so there's going to be plenty of playing time for both anyway.
What To Expect: Aybar will be given every opportunity to succeed at shortstop, but if he can’t cut it, the Angels may back into a better option with Izturis. Expect Wood to start the season in Salt Lake with a mandate to improve his ability to make contact. I’d be a bit surprised if they broke camp with both Willits and Rivera, as neither figures to be in their top four outfielders unless they can find someone to take Matthews and his big contract off their hands. It’s doubtful that all six starting pitchers will be ready to go in the first week, so I wouldn’t expect the fifth spot in the rotation to be decided until a week or two into April.
They didn't back into a better option at short - Izturis won it outright. Wood will start the season in Salt Lake because he was not very good this spring, but he's still young, so I'm not particularly worried. I'm surprised they still have all six outfielders. I don't expect the rotation issues to be settled until mid to late May. But I do expect the Angels to win the division. Oakland second. Seattle third. Texas last. Let's play ball!
Saturday, March 29, 2008
The Real UCLA Shows Up - Final Four x3
I don't fancy myself a great prognosticator. Anyone who read my NCAA Tournament predictions knows that's not true, but I would like to point out that after the WKU game, I wrote:
There's nothing about the recent play of either team that should make me feel confident about tomorrow's matchup with Xavier. That said, I think the Bruins will win, and while it won't be said and done until near the end, I don't think it will take overtime or a buzzer beater. It just has the makings of one of those games where everyone is convinced that Xavier is is going to really take it to UCLA, and the Bruins won't be able to respond, but when teams actually take the floor, the cream rises to the top. Get ready for all of the pundits to pick the upset. Those guys are usually wrong.I'd say that was pretty spot on. That said, here are my thoughts:
- People thought Texas A&M would be a wake up call. It wasn't. Texas A&M is a good team, and they gave UCLA all they could handle because they were solid and unafraid. The wake up call was the second half against Western Kentucky. And I can almost guarantee you that Ben Howland reminded them how easily a game can get away when you don't give everything you have.
- Where are all the folks who say that UCLA gets all the calls? I wonder if they actually watched the last game. The officials were terrible. They called a very tight game on one end of the floor. Not that they let Xavier get away with murder, but they called so many non-fouls on UCLA that it was really embarrassing. In one sequence, they called what was a clear charge taken by Aboya a block, and shortly thereafter, they didn't call an obvious trip on what should have been a lay up by Russel Westbrook.
- Speaking of Westbrook, someone needs to tell him that there's no rule saying that when you break a full court press, you have to go right to the basket. Teams play the press hoping to create turnovers, but the real goal is to speed up the game, to force quick shots, and to get you into their tempo. The way you beat that, if you're UCLA, is to get the ball into the front court and slow it down. Run the clock. Alter the tempo. I said this the other day, but we're talking about UCLA. They should be able to force teams to play at THEIR pace.
- Xavier lost to Arizona State this year in Phoenix. In fact, they got hammered. Maybe they just got scared of the Sundevil on the court in tonight's game.
- Once again, Josh Shipp underwhelmed on the scoreboard, but I thought he played an excellent game. Had two blocks, a big assist, played excellent defense, and made great decisions. He passed up some threes, not because he was tentative, but because he knew that controlling the pace and the clock was in UCLA's best interests at those times. It's a cliché, but he really did do ALL the little things.
- Luc's ankle looked pretty good to me. 13 points, 13 boards, 3 assists, 3 steals!, some big baskets at big times, including a tough shot with about 8 minutes to go when Xavier was within 15 and just scored on their last possession.
- Raftery and Lundquist mentioned that only UCLA's starters were scoring. They did it a few times. And James Keefe clearly didn't have the game he had against WKU. But the other night, I mentioned that UCLA beat Texas A&M with two, maybe two and a half players. Tonight all five starters were on the scoreboard in the first six minutes. Love, LRMAM, Collison, and Westbrook combined for 68 points, against what is regarded as a very fine defensive team. You don't need bench production when you can get that out of your starters. You need some minutes, and some defense, but I'm fine with the starters dominating the scoreboard if they can put up those numbers.
- Mike Roll has a chance to be a member of five final four teams.
- This was, in my opinion, under the circumstances, the finest performance of the season by the Bruins. They led every statistical category. Xavier stayed within shouting distance for a bit, and there was as surge of momentum when they pulled to within 12, but they never really let the game get into doubt in the second half.
- Love was CBS's player of the game, but Collison was mine. 19 points, five assists, and three for three from three. Quite a comeback after what happened Thursday night. He was the difference maker tonight.
- Memphis or Texas? Don't care right now. But keep this in mind. UCLA has three losses this year. They can look back and say that two were avenged (OK, so they avenged the Washington loss before they lost to them), but if they face Texas, they'll have a chance to say they've beaten every single team they played this year. But I think they have a better shot to win against Memphis (who I think will lose anyway).
- It's nice to know that college basketball matters for another week.
Friday, March 28, 2008
UCLA Dominates, Chokes, Recovers, Against WKU
Well, that was a little too close for comfort if you ask me. But like I did for the last game, I'll just bullet out my thoughts. Keep in mind that I watched the first half in a bar, and that they turned the game off in the second half except on a couple of small TVs, after which I walked the (literally) 250 feet from the bar to my apartment to watch the rest. It was during this time that WKU started their run:
- Do not overlook the importance of free throws in this win. UCLA shot a 74.3% for the game, but they really nutted up in the clutch, hitting 12 of their final 14 to salt the game away. They way Brazelton was canning threes, they needed every one of those. Special congratulations to Russel Westbrook, who has been a little spotty from the line this year, but hit seven of eight last night, and was 6 for 6 in the final 1:11 of the game.
- Obviously the big stories of the game were the huge night for Kevin Love and the surprising performance from James Keefe. People forget, or are unaware, that Keefe was a McDonald's All American. I think he's struggled fitting in on the Bruins for the last two years, but the guy is a good basketball player, and he's really benefiting from the increase in playing time. He just looks more comfortable in the rotation, and last night he really emerged. That said, I don't expect another game like that from him in this tournament, but hopefully they won't need one. More than anything, it gives me a little more comfort with regard to next season, when Love likely won't be around. They'll be solid on the perimeter, and after last night's explosion, I think they'll be alright on the interior as well.
- I also don't expect another performance like last night out of Darren Collison. It's funny, but I didn't see or hear much "UCLA gets all the calls" smack last night. Maybe in some parallel universe, Collison actually touched the guy on that fifth foul.
- I'm not overly concerned about this game "exposing" the Bruins, or giving Xavier a roadmap to victory tomorrow night. I don't think UCLA's problem was with full court press, although that's going to be the dominant narrative. The problem is that they built a big lead, came out unfocused in the second half, started making mistakes, and couldn't get their heads back in the game. They let WKU speed them up, and they had a tough time re-grabbing the reins.
- To add to the point above, I think that a big flaw in the way they played wasn't so much the press per se, but rather the fact that they allowed WKU to set the tempo. The talk before the game was that WKU will speed things up, and the game will be fast paced, etc. But there are two sides of that coin. UCLA likes a slower style, and what they didn't do was force THEIR pace. This is UCLA, a number one seed. They should not allow their opponent to dictate the tempo. When you're UCLA, and especially a Bruins team that is this good, you need to make your opponent adjust to you, not the other way around.
- When Joe Shipp was at Cal, he always seemed like one of those enigma type players to me. He wasn't a speedy ball-handling point guard. He wasn't a three point gunner. He wasn't a high flying dunker. What he was was a scorer. He didn't do anything great, but he did a lot of things well, and at the end of the game, he'd have 15-20 points. That's the way Josh Shipp plays when he's at his best. Somewhere along the line, he convinced himself he was a spot up shooter, and I think that's contributed to his slump this year. But in the later part of the first half last night, he slashed to the basket twice for layups. I don't know if they made a difference in his confidence, but his circus shot at the end of the game was huge. He just needs to convince himself that there are shot worth taking from closer than 20 feet.
- Come to think of it, that's two circus shots he's hit with a clock expiring (either game or 35 second). Perhaps he's been TOO open during his slump. In other words, he's not shooting unless he's got a perfect opportunity, which unfortunately includes time to think about missing. I'm not saying he should take more contested shots. I'm saying that he probably shoots better when he doesn't have time to think about it, or more importantly, just isn't thinking. Shooting isn't a cerebral exercise. It's feel and mechanics. To paraphrase Crash Davis, don't think, just shoot.
- There's nothing about the recent play of either team that should make me feel confident about tomorrow's matchup with Xavier. That said, I think the Bruins will win, and while it won't be said and done until near the end, I don't think it will take overtime or a buzzer beater. It just has the makings of one of those games where everyone is convinced that Xavier is is going to really take it to UCLA, and the Bruins won't be able to respond, but when teams actually take the floor, the cream rises to the top. Get ready for all of the pundits to pick the upset. Those guys are usually wrong.
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