Wildcats Strike - Beat UCLA 89-69

If you set aside two hours of your day to watch this game, I hope you found something to do after about the first five minutes, because the game was essentially over that early. UCLA’s first six points came from the free throw line, but the story was how they got there. Hard, physically punishing fouls sent a message early on that Villanova was going to bully UCLA all over the floor, and the Bruins never really stepped up to the challenge. After Josh Shipp’s fourth free throw gave UCLA a 6-4 lead, the Wildcats went on a 24-5 run from which the Bruins would never recover.

You could look for someone to blame, but this was just a beat-down, plain and simple. Villanova was stronger, quicker, more athletic, and executed better than the Bruins in every aspect of the game. The Villanova back court routinely took the ball to the basket without much trouble. Dante Cunningham dominated the smaller Bruins inside, finishing with 18 and 10. Six Wildcats finished with double figures in scoring, and another finished with 8 points.

The raw numbers don’t look all that awful. Neither team shot over 50% (UCLA finished at 42.6% while Villanova shot 46.3%). UCLA outscored Villanova at the free throw line and the three point line. But two numbers tell the whole story are rebounds and turnovers. Villanova outrebounded the Bruins 39-26, including 15-7 on the offensive glass. The Bruins turned the ball over 20 times compared to only 11 times for the Wildcats. Those numbers translated into 20 more shots for Villanova, and the team with 20 extra shots is usually going to win.

So the UCLA careers for Josh Shipp, Darren Collison, and Alfred Aboya have come to an end. The trio combined for 11 of the Bruins turnovers and only 10 rebounds. Shockingly, Josh Shipp finished the game without a rebound. It’s their earliest tournament exit since Shipp’s first year loss to Texas Tech. Shipp ends his career with a career record for games started, while Collison and Aboya finish with more games played than other Bruin in team history.

The Bruins will now wait on the decision of freshman J’rue Holiday, who will take over his natural point guard position if he decides to come back. They also add length in a five man freshman class, each of whom stand 6′7″ or taller. But as they learned against Memphis last year, and Villanova this year, talent alone won’t get it done. They need to get tougher and stronger if they’re going to return to national prominence.

UCLA 65; Virginia Commonwealth 64

It was a struggle over the last ten minutes. UCLA fans were probably flashing back to the ASU debacle from earlier in the season as an 11 point lead was slowly whittled down to one, giving VCU's Eric Maynor a chance to win the game in final seconds. But the Bruins forced VCU to use more clock than they probably would have liked, Maynor mishandled the ball a bit before the final shot, and the ball fell off the front end of the rim, giving the Bruins a one point victory as the clock expired.

This was really kind of a strange game for the Bruins. They struggled to pull away early, but finished the first half on a 13-2 run over the final five minutes to take a 10 point lead into the half. The second half was a bit up and down, with teams trading scores until about the six and a half minute mark. What happened then may have been the turning point in the game had the game ended differently. With an 11 point lead, Jrue Holiday made a nice move to get to the basket, but fumbled the ball a bit on the way to the hoop and blew the lay up. A quick strike by VCU the other way turned what should have been a 13 point lead turned into a 9 point lead, and things continued to tighten until the final buzzer.

Contributions came from many hands tonight. Josh Shipp led the Bruins with 16 points and added 8 rebounds. He had two baskets early in the second half when the Bruins were struggling to make field goals. Nikola Dragovic had average offensive numbers, but his 13 rebounds were key. Jrue Holiday played very well in a key second half stretch after Darren Collison picked up his fourth foul. As for Collison, he struggled with fouls, and did not have a very nice line (2 assists, 3 turnovers, 4 fouls), but finished with ten points. Alfred Aboya grabbed seven boards, but his key numbers were his four steals and 5 free throws made in 5 attempts, including the Bruins' final two points. The surprising number for me was 0. That's the comined number of minutes played by Drew Gordon and Malcolm Lee. With Collison's foul trouble, and the size up front for VCU (mainly Larry Sanders) I expected each of those guys to see the floor, but Ben Howland really shortened the bench. [update: Per Brian Dohn, Drew Gordon did not play because of a concussion he suffered earlier in the week].

As for the Rams, Sanders had 10 points and 11 rebounds to go along with floor blocks. It seemed like altered at least 10 shots, and he was a force inside. Eric Maynor led all scorers with 21 points, 15 of them in the second half. And pardon my subjectivity, but for a good stretch in the second half, it seemed like if a Bruin looked at Maynor, he was going to the line. He only made five of fifteen shots, and that tenth miss was the difference in the game.

UCLA has to get ready for Villanova, who will basically have the home court advantage that the Bruins have enjoyed for the last few years. They struggled mightily against the Eagles from American University until simply dominating the end of the game. It's not an insurmountable task for a team with as much talent as UCLA. They'll play the first game of the day, tipping it off at 10:05 Pacific time. As much as the late start may have benefitted the Bruins tonight, they'll need to be ready for the early tip on Saturday.

Unorganized Thoughts on Illinois and UCLA

Lucky me! Both teams play tonight at the exact goddamn time, which means I'll be watching the Illini on television, and the Bruins on the computer. But the similarities don't end there. They also happened to be the only two teams (that I noticed, anyway) that were called out as immediate first round upsets by first rate douchebag, Seth Davis. That immediately calmed my nerves, safe in the knowledge that Seth Davis picking against a team in the first round is a virtual ticket for that team to the second round. I don't know, I checked his wikipedia page (which is pretty funny) and apparently his basketball expertise is limited to "graduating from Duke". Not playing for Duke, mind you, but simply graduating from Duke. Anyway, I'm totally discounting matchups here, because I've been a little overwhelmed with coverage and other stuff, and I honestly don't care about the matchups. Both the Illini and the Bruins are teams that should enforce their will on weaker opponents, but we shall see.

Illinois

Honestly I'm surprised they got a fifth seed, considering Chester Frazier's injury and their spotty play down the stretch. I'm of two minds about the loss of Frazier. On the one hand, they'll miss his defense, his hustle, and his leadership. But the intangibles are his key contribution, and if I have to loss one guy, well, I'd rather keep all the guys with the tangibles. As a mediocre offensive team, if you're going to lose one guy, it may as well be your worst offensive player.

The main problem I see with the Illini is the inability to get an almost guaranteed basket when they really need one. When your opponent goes on a run, occasionally you need to slow things down, go back to basics, and run a play that has a good chance of either getting a basket, or getting to the line. Illinois simply doesn't have the personnel to do that. You can break a run with jump shots, but you don't want to rely on jump shooting to break a run. We saw it last weekend in both games. A gainst Michigan, after going on a run that turned a one point halftime lead into a 20 point lead, the Illini let Michigan go on a run of their own to cut the lead back to seven. Mike Davis finally made a 15 foot turn around hook shot to stop the bleeding, and that seemed to carry the Illini to the victory. You do not want to rely on 15 foot turn around hook shots when you desperately need a basket, because when those don't fall, you end up missing 16 straight shots like they did against Purdue.

I think their tendency to go into long periods where they fail to execute has kept me from completely buying into this team. I think they're going to win tonight, but admittedly, that's based on nothing but faith and hope. They'll start four guys who can really shoot it if you include Davis and his conscience (i.e., he's not a long range gunner, but he doesn't try to be). I think Mark Tupper is dead right that Demetri McCamey, a.k.a. the Little Sleep, is the key man for Illinois. I really thought he was step up against Purdue and have the type of game that he had against them in the tournament last year (and against Indiana in the regular season), making big shot after big shot. I don't know if he's nursing an injury or recovering from an illness, but he's been quiet, and he needs to play like he's shown he can if the Illini are going to advance past tonight and hopefully into next week.

UCLA

Contra my thoughts on Illinois, I'm surprised they dropped to a six seed. This team has confounded all year, going through stretches where they looked like a top 5 team, and stretches where they looked like a team that wouldn't garner an NIT invite. My hope is that the six seed, and the outpouring of negative feelings about their chances, will serve as a wake up call. I'll be honest, picking with my head, I have them in the final four. I based that on just looking at the brackets game by game. If they get past tonight, they'll have a tough match up with Villanova in Philly, but if they win that game, I think they can beat Duke and Pitt. I think they have the easiest bracket if they get past this weekend, but that's a tall order.

Unlike the Illini, this team is loaded with offensive talent, which makes games like they played against ASU a couple months ago, and U$C in the conference tournament particularly strange. They start four players who won't just make and take the occasional three pointer, but are legitimate three point threats every time down the floor. And Alfred Aboya has matured into a decent offensive post player, while Nikola Dragovic has recently shown a proclivity for going to the basket. This is a team that should be able to score with anyone in the country.

The defensive side has been even more confounding. A hallmark of Ben Howland's UCLA teams, the '08-'09 Bruins have not covered their end of the floor very well. Maybe it's the lack of multiple big men to cover the middle. Maybe they're a little slow on their hedges. They've been burned on slipped screens numerous times this year. This seems like the worst defensive team they've had over the past few years.

Probably what concerns me most about this team is what I perceive as a lack of heart, for lack of a better word. I hate to criticize 18-22 year old kids with label, but they just don't seem to dig in and find that little something extra when they needed the same way the Bruins have over the past few years. This team would not have erased that deficit against Gonzaga. This team would not have beat Berkeley and Stanford down the stretch the way they did last year. They showed some glimmers in their PTT game against U$C, but there just seems to be a spark missing from this team. A guy who can give them that spark is Drew Gordon, who always seems to be fired up. An unexpected performance from on of their freshman guards, or maybe a big night from James Keefe, could also ignite them.

Still, they start three seniors. They have four players in the rotation who have been a part of three straight final four teams. They are LOADED with experience. That's something you can't put a price on at this time of year. And regardless of the way they've looked at times, they still have a boatload of talent, and they have a world class coach. I'm hoping that their poor seed is a wake up call. They've kind of dicked around all season, and they've had this week to get serious. We'll see what kind of stuff they're made of. I think they have the talent, the bodies, and the coaching to put together another long tournament run. The question is whether they believe that.

I Remember How the Darkness Tripled: UCLA Bows Out Again

I've gotta say, I took this loss surprisingly well, probably because I was sober (unlike last year), and because even though the Bruins made a run or two, I never really felt like they were in the game. In all of their big comebacks this season, there was a sense of 'what the hell is going on' when the opponent was building it's lead. Those were games in which the opponents didn't look that great, but the Bruins clearly were simply not playing well. I didn't get that feeling on Saturday. I got the feeling that the Bruins were playing poorly because Memphis was forcing them to play poorly, and subsequently, I never really expected the big run that would make the game close.

For the third straight year, the Bruins fell victim to matchup problems. Derrick Rose was simply too big and strong for Darren Collison, and Rose was their smallest guy most of the time. Memphis drove to the basket very well, and created a lot of help situations that led to offensive rebounds and easy put backs. They torched the Bruins in transition. The Tigers' superior athleticism and ability to finish was really the Bruins' undoing on the defensive end.

When they had the ball, UCLA had a hard time holding onto it. They turned it over 12 times, often with sloppy plays or lapses in concentration. James Keefe dropped a rebound out of bounds with no Tiger within 50 feet. Russel Westbrook dropped on in bounds pass off his foot. Darren Collison stepped out of bounds on what could have been a fast break, one of his five turnovers in a game he'd really just like to forget. He made only one of nine shots, a floater at the end of the first half that pulled the Bruins to within three, giving us all hope at halftime. Only Russell Westbrook, with 22 points on 10-19 shooting made more than half his shots, and he did nothing to lower his NBA stock.

In the end, Memphis was simply more athletic and longer. I won't say they're more talented, because UCLA is very talented, but the matchups were simply not in their favor, and they had to play a top notch game to beat Memphis. As it turns out, they played one of their worst. But with a couple of days to reflect, I'd like to put a couple of myths to rest:

1. Ben Howland does not need to do anything different. He's reached the final four for the third straight year. From 1981 to his hiring in 2003, UCLA reached two final fours. He's doing something right, and in a one and done tournament, too much emphasis is placed on one game. He doesn't need to teach a zone. He doesn't need to run a different offense. He doesn't need to manage time outs differently. He just needs to keep doing what he's doing. And you can argue that he needs better athletes, but can really argue with the guy who's bringing in the top recruiting class in the country next season?
   
2. Kevin Love and Darren Collison are no more or less ready for the NBA than they were before the Memphis game. If you're draft expert, and you had these guys in your lottery/top 20 before the game, and have now dropped them, you're a really crappy draft expert. I'm not trying to argue that they are or aren't lottery picks. But you've had an entire season to evaluate them, and you've essentially boiled it down to one game. You're either wrong now, or you weren't doing your job back then, but either way, just stop it. You're embarrassing yourself. That goes for the all of the amateur draft experts on message boards across the country. Alex Rodriguez doesn't stop being a hall of famer after a bad week. These guys are the same players everyone was drooling over a week ago.
   

And so ends another season of Bruin basketball. We'll all wait with anxiety for the decisions from Love, Collison, and Westbrook. We'll all look forward to welcoming Jrue Holiday, Jerime Anderson, Malcolm Lee, and Drew Gordon. We'll all hope for an off season of improvement from Chace Stanback, and for the return to health of Mike Roll. But it was fun five month ride. Congratulations to UCLA on another successful season.

Thoughts on Tomorrow's Final Four

I tend to be a pessimist when I'm around optimistic people, and I tend to be an optimist when I'm around naysayers. So there are groups of Bruins fans out there who should probably temper their enthusiasm, but some of the local scribes should probably watch some tapes of UCLA's exits the last two years.

Memphis, like Florida, is long and athletic. They have a great point guard, and come at you with a lot of size. But there are two key differences between the teams that will take the floor tomorrow and the teams that played the last two years:

The first is that there is no Corey Brewer. He was the true matchup nightmare for the Bruins the last two years, and not surprisingly, he led the Gators in scoring in last year's national semi. He was a 6'9" wing player who dwarfed just about any Bruin who tried to guard him. He created all sorts of problems both in the paint and from beyond the arc, going 4-5 from three. Chris Douglas-Roberts will not be easy to guard, and he's the most Brewer-esque player on the Tigers. But he'll likely be guarded by UCLA's best and most athletic defender. And while he'll take the three, he prefers to take the ball to the basket. If Westbrook can slow him down on the perimeter, and funnel him towards UCLA's interior players, they may be able to neutralize him somewhat. They aren't going to stop him, but they may be able to slow him down. And while Memphis is strong inside, they aren't as skilled as Florida was in the paint last year.

The second huge difference is Kevin Love. Last year, Aaron Afflalo was limited by early (questionable) fouls. Without him, the offense essentially relied on Darren Collison and Josh Shipp. Shipp responded with a solid 18 points, and Afflalo chipped in 17, many after the game had already been decided. This year a great deal of the offense still comes from the guards, but the addition of Love provides the Bruins an opportunity to look for easier baskets when shots aren't falling, and keeps opponents from focusing all of their efforts on the perimeter. In last year's game, early in the second half, the Bruins trailed the Gators 32-28 following a Mike Roll three pointer. Six minutes later, they trailed 49-32. In that stretch, they missed five jumpers and three layups. They didn't have an interior threat to turn to when the going got tough on the outside. The balance they bring this year should keep them from going long stretches without scoring.

There are other factors as well. First is the experience the Bruins bring. It's a big week for these kids, and though they're used to being on TV and being hounded by the press, the final four is a bit of a different animal. UCLA's experience with the week and its demands should be a plus. Second, UCLA has time and again found the ability to overcome large second half deficits. There was a sense last year (rightly so) that when Florida went on their run that the Bruins were done for. I'm not so sure that will be the case this year. They seem to find a way to lock down on defense, and slowly chip away at a lead until it's gone. They won't be rattled.

Memphis is a great team, to be sure, and I'm not going to predict a result one way or the other. But I think UCLA is in a much better position now than they were last year.

The Real UCLA Shows Up - Final Four x3

I don't fancy myself a great prognosticator. Anyone who read my NCAA Tournament predictions knows that's not true, but I would like to point out that after the WKU game, I wrote:

There's nothing about the recent play of either team that should make me feel confident about tomorrow's matchup with Xavier. That said, I think the Bruins will win, and while it won't be said and done until near the end, I don't think it will take overtime or a buzzer beater. It just has the makings of one of those games where everyone is convinced that Xavier is is going to really take it to UCLA, and the Bruins won't be able to respond, but when teams actually take the floor, the cream rises to the top. Get ready for all of the pundits to pick the upset. Those guys are usually wrong.

I'd say that was pretty spot on. That said, here are my thoughts:

• People thought Texas A&M would be a wake up call. It wasn't. Texas A&M is a good team, and they gave UCLA all they could handle because they were solid and unafraid. The wake up call was the second half against Western Kentucky. And I can almost guarantee you that Ben Howland reminded them how easily a game can get away when you don't give everything you have.
• Where are all the folks who say that UCLA gets all the calls? I wonder if they actually watched the last game. The officials were terrible. They called a very tight game on one end of the floor. Not that they let Xavier get away with murder, but they called so many non-fouls on UCLA that it was really embarrassing. In one sequence, they called what was a clear charge taken by Aboya a block, and shortly thereafter, they didn't call an obvious trip on what should have been a lay up by Russel Westbrook.
• Speaking of Westbrook, someone needs to tell him that there's no rule saying that when you break a full court press, you have to go right to the basket. Teams play the press hoping to create turnovers, but the real goal is to speed up the game, to force quick shots, and to get you into their tempo. The way you beat that, if you're UCLA, is to get the ball into the front court and slow it down. Run the clock. Alter the tempo. I said this the other day, but we're talking about UCLA. They should be able to force teams to play at THEIR pace.
  
• Xavier lost to Arizona State this year in Phoenix. In fact, they got hammered. Maybe they just got scared of the Sundevil on the court in tonight's game.
  
• Once again, Josh Shipp underwhelmed on the scoreboard, but I thought he played an excellent game. Had two blocks, a big assist, played excellent defense, and made great decisions. He passed up some threes, not because he was tentative, but because he knew that controlling the pace and the clock was in UCLA's best interests at those times. It's a cliché, but he really did do ALL the little things.
  
• Luc's ankle looked pretty good to me. 13 points, 13 boards, 3 assists, 3 steals!, some big baskets at big times, including a tough shot with about 8 minutes to go when Xavier was within 15 and just scored on their last possession.
• Raftery and Lundquist mentioned that only UCLA's starters were scoring. They did it a few times. And James Keefe clearly didn't have the game he had against WKU. But the other night, I mentioned that UCLA beat Texas A&M with two, maybe two and a half players. Tonight all five starters were on the scoreboard in the first six minutes. Love, LRMAM, Collison, and Westbrook combined for 68 points, against what is regarded as a very fine defensive team. You don't need bench production when you can get that out of your starters. You need some minutes, and some defense, but I'm fine with the starters dominating the scoreboard if they can put up those numbers.
• Mike Roll has a chance to be a member of five final four teams.
  
• This was, in my opinion, under the circumstances, the finest performance of the season by the Bruins. They led every statistical category. Xavier stayed within shouting distance for a bit, and there was as surge of momentum when they pulled to within 12, but they never really let the game get into doubt in the second half.
• Love was CBS's player of the game, but Collison was mine. 19 points, five assists, and three for three from three. Quite a comeback after what happened Thursday night. He was the difference maker tonight.
• Memphis or Texas? Don't care right now. But keep this in mind. UCLA has three losses this year. They can look back and say that two were avenged (OK, so they avenged the Washington loss before they lost to them), but if they face Texas, they'll have a chance to say they've beaten every single team they played this year. But I think they have a better shot to win against Memphis (who I think will lose anyway).
• It's nice to know that college basketball matters for another week.
  

UCLA Dominates, Chokes, Recovers, Against WKU

Well, that was a little too close for comfort if you ask me. But like I did for the last game, I'll just bullet out my thoughts. Keep in mind that I watched the first half in a bar, and that they turned the game off in the second half except on a couple of small TVs, after which I walked the (literally) 250 feet from the bar to my apartment to watch the rest. It was during this time that WKU started their run:

• Do not overlook the importance of free throws in this win. UCLA shot a 74.3% for the game, but they really nutted up in the clutch, hitting 12 of their final 14 to salt the game away. They way Brazelton was canning threes, they needed every one of those. Special congratulations to Russel Westbrook, who has been a little spotty from the line this year, but hit seven of eight last night, and was 6 for 6 in the final 1:11 of the game.
• Obviously the big stories of the game were the huge night for Kevin Love and the surprising performance from James Keefe. People forget, or are unaware, that Keefe was a McDonald's All American. I think he's struggled fitting in on the Bruins for the last two years, but the guy is a good basketball player, and he's really benefiting from the increase in playing time. He just looks more comfortable in the rotation, and last night he really emerged. That said, I don't expect another game like that from him in this tournament, but hopefully they won't need one. More than anything, it gives me a little more comfort with regard to next season, when Love likely won't be around. They'll be solid on the perimeter, and after last night's explosion, I think they'll be alright on the interior as well.
• I also don't expect another performance like last night out of Darren Collison. It's funny, but I didn't see or hear much "UCLA gets all the calls" smack last night. Maybe in some parallel universe, Collison actually touched the guy on that fifth foul.
• I'm not overly concerned about this game "exposing" the Bruins, or giving Xavier a roadmap to victory tomorrow night. I don't think UCLA's problem was with full court press, although that's going to be the dominant narrative. The problem is that they built a big lead, came out unfocused in the second half, started making mistakes, and couldn't get their heads back in the game. They let WKU speed them up, and they had a tough time re-grabbing the reins.
  
• To add to the point above, I think that a big flaw in the way they played wasn't so much the press per se, but rather the fact that they allowed WKU to set the tempo. The talk before the game was that WKU will speed things up, and the game will be fast paced, etc. But there are two sides of that coin. UCLA likes a slower style, and what they didn't do was force THEIR pace. This is UCLA, a number one seed. They should not allow their opponent to dictate the tempo. When you're UCLA, and especially a Bruins team that is this good, you need to make your opponent adjust to you, not the other way around.
• When Joe Shipp was at Cal, he always seemed like one of those enigma type players to me. He wasn't a speedy ball-handling point guard. He wasn't a three point gunner. He wasn't a high flying dunker. What he was was a scorer. He didn't do anything great, but he did a lot of things well, and at the end of the game, he'd have 15-20 points. That's the way Josh Shipp plays when he's at his best. Somewhere along the line, he convinced himself he was a spot up shooter, and I think that's contributed to his slump this year. But in the later part of the first half last night, he slashed to the basket twice for layups. I don't know if they made a difference in his confidence, but his circus shot at the end of the game was huge. He just needs to convince himself that there are shot worth taking from closer than 20 feet.
• Come to think of it, that's two circus shots he's hit with a clock expiring (either game or 35 second). Perhaps he's been TOO open during his slump. In other words, he's not shooting unless he's got a perfect opportunity, which unfortunately includes time to think about missing. I'm not saying he should take more contested shots. I'm saying that he probably shoots better when he doesn't have time to think about it, or more importantly, just isn't thinking. Shooting isn't a cerebral exercise. It's feel and mechanics. To paraphrase Crash Davis, don't think, just shoot.
  
• There's nothing about the recent play of either team that should make me feel confident about tomorrow's matchup with Xavier. That said, I think the Bruins will win, and while it won't be said and done until near the end, I don't think it will take overtime or a buzzer beater. It just has the makings of one of those games where everyone is convinced that Xavier is is going to really take it to UCLA, and the Bruins won't be able to respond, but when teams actually take the floor, the cream rises to the top. Get ready for all of the pundits to pick the upset. Those guys are usually wrong.
  

UCLA over Texas A&M - Quick Thoughts

Instead of an extended post, I'm going on about five or six beers right now, so I'll do a quick one and bullet point it.

• I'm not going to second guess Ben Howland. I've wondered about his time out strategy, his scheduling, and a bunch of other things since he came to UCLA, but I've gotta wonder if he wishes he had gotten LRMAM into the game for a five or ten minutes the other night, just to get some timing down. He looked very out of sorts tonight. He didn't look like he had ankle problems, but he struggled with decision making, and that led directly to a couple of charges.
  
• UCLA beat A&M with arguably two and a half players. Offensively, they got nothing from LRMAM or Shipp, and Westbrook didn't show up until the second half. A full Bruins team is unbeatable. We learned tonight that half a Bruins team is still damn good if it's the right half.
• If I had to guess, based on tonight's game alone, I would guess that Kevin Love is gone after this season. And I say that solely because of the way he played down the stretch. He simply refused to allow this to be his last college basketball game. He hit two shots in the waning minutes that he normally wouldn't take. But ask yourself, would you have rather had him taking a bad shot than Shipp taking a good shot? He was not going to miss.
• He's got two more final fours than the other two, but Darren Collison has finally been admitted to the fraternity of Bruin guards that include, from my own personal era, Tyus Edney and Cameron Dollar. Admission requires a game deciding basket for a high seeded team in the final ten seconds. And honestly, the shot was almost identical to Dollar's, plus about seven seconds.
  
• I just saw the commercial for the new movie 21. For those wondering, the song in the commercial is Spoon's "My Mathematical Mind", which I suppose is somewhat appropriate.
• If the Bruins go on to win the championship, Lorenzo Mata-Real can forever tell people that he hit a 17 foot jumper that was, mathematically, the difference in them moving on.
  
• Did Kevin Love have seven blocks all season going into this game?
• I run hot and cold on Jay Bilas. I like him as a color guy, not as much as an analyst. He's incredibly misguided on the subjects of Tommy Amaker and Eric Gordon, but I like what he brings to the sideline, and he works well with Enberg. And his "OH!!" on Collison's game winner was eerily similar to his "OH!!" on Deron Williams' game tying three against Arizona in 2005.
• UCLA has a reputation, as we all know, for being a boring team to watch, because of their great defense. But had I not just checked, I would never have known that TAM went over eight and half minutes near the end of the game (for 10:09 to 1:19) with one point. For some reason, I thought the game was still pretty exciting.
• A friend of mine texted me to tell me that the next game should be easy. That's what Drake and UConn thought. But as long as we're talking about USD, remember when the Bruins had a coach that would lose to USD? I credit their success to the $150 dollars I gave to them in exchange for nothing more than another two months to decide where to go to law school.
• Call them the cardiac kids if you must, and no one wants to see the Bruins get behind and be forced to come back, but you have to think that the comebacks over the last three weeks helped the Bruins remain calm in the second half. Of course, they didn't help ME remain calm, but I'm not out there playing, which is good, because I suck.
• Digger Phelps just talked about Jordan Hill playing for Stanford. Digger Phelps is an idiot.
• With the upsets in the bracket, there's no reason the Bruins shouldn't get to at least the final four again. It's all on them now.
  
• Three Pac 10 teams in the sweet 16 is good, but not great. Not like 1997. We need all three to get to the next round. Let's get it done, Wazzu. Should be an interesting game. UNC's high powered offense against Wazzu's defense.
  
• On to Phoenix. It's only five hours away, folks. If you can get out there, go make the place feel like Pauley.
  

Tournament Picks

Upsets in red

Round One

East Region:

North Carolina over Mt. St. Mary's
Indiana over Arkansas
Notre Dame over George Mason
Wazzu over Winthrop
St. Joe's over Oklahoma
Louisville over Boise State
Butler over South Alabama
Tennessee over America

Midwest Region

Kansas over Portland State
UNLV over Kent State
Clemson over Villanova
Vandy over Sienna
U$C over Kansas State
Wisconsin over Fullteron
Davidson over Gonzaga
Georgetown over Maryland-Baltimore County

I know that Davidson is a popular upset, and that almost makes me want to pick Gonzaga, just because there's always a "lock" upset that doesn't come through, but Davidson is pretty good. They almost beat UCLA.

South Region

Memphis over UTA
Oregon over Mississippi State
State over Temple
Pitt over Oral Roberts
Kentucky over Marquette
Stanford over Cornell
St. Mary's over Miami
Texas over Austin Peay

West Region

UCLA over Miss. Valley State
BYU over Texas A&M
Drake over Western Kentucky
UCONN over USD
Purdue over Baylor
Xavier over Georgia
Arizona over West Virginia
Duke over Belmont

Round Two

East Region

UNC over Indiana
Wazzu over Notre Dame
Louisville over St. Joe's
Tennessee over Butler

No surprises here. The WSU-ND game should be good. The last time Notre Dame was a five seed, they made it to the sweet sixteen, but Tony Bennet isn't as dumb as Bill Self, so I think the Cougs will pull it out.

Midwest Region

Kansas over UNLV
Clemson over Vandy
U$C over Wiscy
Davidson over Georgetown

This bracket starts to get torn up. I like the athleticism of the women of troy, and if they can stay out of foul trouble, they'll handle Wisconsin. Davidson becomes my first major upset of the tournament.

South Region

Memphis over Oregon
MSU over Pitt
Stanford over Kentucky
Texas over St. Mary's

Again, no real surprises, other than perhaps MSU, but I'll give Izzo the benefit of the doubt come tourney time, especially with a senior point guard.

West Region

UCLA over BYU
Drake over UConn
Purdue over Xavier
Arizona over Duke

I love Arizona's talent if everyone is healthy. I think Jordan Hill can do some damage against an undersized middle. I look at Xavier and I still see the team that lost to ASU. I haven't seen Drake or UConn, but everyone's on Drake's jock, so why not?

Sweet 16

East Region

UNC over Wazzu
Tennessee over Louisville

Nothing to see here.

Midwest Region

KU over Clemson
U$C over Davidson

Troy gets a break after Davidson's upset of Georgetown.

South Region

Michigan State over Memphis
Texas over Stanford

Interior defense and rebounding are MSU staples, and Memphis will be doing a lot of "kicking out" when their drives end up in the trees. They start missing threes, go one and done, and they won't help themselves at the free throw line. In the other matchup, I like Stanford a lot, but I think Darren Collison exposed Mitch Johnson's defense. DJ Augustin will get to the middle and create havoc, and if he can kick it out to open Damion James, Stanford is in for a long night, especially in what will be a home game for Texas.

West Region

UCLA over Drake
Arizona over Purdue

Like U$C, Arizona gets a big of a break by missing Xavier. I really don't like Arizona. I especially don't like Arizona fans. But I think they have the type of talent that can take them on a run.

Elite Eight

East Region

Tennessee over North Carolina

A running, pressing, shooting team, not unlike Clemson who coincidentally gave UNC a lot of problems in their three matchups this year. The difference is that Tennessee does all those things better than Clemson. The Vols move on to San Antonio.

Midwest Region

Kansas over U$C

In a battle of two teams that I hate, it's unfortunate that both can't lose. But Kansas' depth will be too much for the latex-thin Trojans.

South Region

Texas over Michigan State

Texas has too much, and playing in Houston, they'll ride the home court to San Antonio.

West Region

UCLA over Arizona

Scary game for UCLA, and I'm really tempted to pick against them here. The Cats scare me almost more than any team in this bracket because of the location of the game. But the Bruins have already beat Arizona in Tucson, and things won't get any easier for the Cats in Phoenix. The streak goes to eight.

Final Four

Tennessee over Kansas

Again, I can't think of two coaches I'd like to see lose more than these two. But unfortunately, the rules say someone has to win. Depth and balance should do the trick for Kansas. But as much I hate lying scumbag Bruce Pearl, he's a better coach than Bill Self. Self will somehow find a way to lose.

UCLA over Texas

Darren Collison is healthy. He wasn't back in December. And he's on a mission. Since that Texas game, only his second game back, after missing the first six, he's hit 53% of his three pointers. He will not let UCLA lose.

Championship Game

UCLA over Tennessee.

The Bruins ability to control the tempo will frustrate Tennessee, and their relentless ball pressure on the defensive end will lead to some easy baskets for the Bruins. It will be an interesting contrast in styles, but Kevin Love is going to be too much for Tennessee inside, and that will be the difference.

NCAA Tourney First Thoughts

• UCLA has a nice path to the championship, and based on that, they should be the favorite. None of the teams in their bracket scare me.
  
• ASU got dicked. This is what happens when the committee places too much emphasis on schedule and not enough on results. They are simply a better team than Arizona. They proved it over the course of the Pac 10 season, and twice on the court.
• Part of the problem for ASU was, as always, conference tournaments, which I hate. Why play a regular season if you're just going to award the automatic bid to someone who has a hot weekend? Illinois had no business playing for a shot at the tourney. Neither did Georgia, who probably kept ASU out.
  
• No quarrel with the number one seeds.
• Picks will come later this week, but right now I don't like the draw for Stanford, and I like the draw for Tennessee. I think they'll beat North Carolina. They're like Clemson, who UNC struggled with, but better.
  

Re-visiting Saturday Night

I'm gonna be honest, I've got very little memory of what happened Saturday, and that's probably for the best. The brief post that preceded this one was an alcohol fueled rant, and trust me, there was a lot of alcohol involved. Word of advice, it's probably not a good idea to get really, really drunk the night before you have a morning golf tournament. We finished second, which was less surprising than the fact that we were even able to wake up in time to make it. Of course, we won it last year, and I played the whole round with food poisoning after spending the morning puking, so maybe I was in better shape this year.

If you had told me before the game that the Bruins would win the turnover battle 16-3, I would have felt pretty good about the game. Of course, that would have meant omitting the fact that they were completely dominated on the boards, that they couldn't shoot (39%), and that they really couldn't shoot from beyond the arc (22%). The Bruins had the game within four early in the second half before Florida ran off a 21-4 run that more or less decided the game.

As for the officiating, I don't believe the refs cost UCLA this game. I do believe that the game was pretty much over when they called the second foul on Arron Afflalo. They can't win a big game without Afflalo playing a major role, and when he was taken off the floor practically before the game even started on what were really ticky tack fouls, the game was essentially over. They can't win a big game when he only gets 22 minutes.

Before the game, I figured that a key for the Bruins would be the player (either Afflalo or Shipp) who was not guarded by Brewer, because I figured that was a matchup advantage for UCLA. When Afflalo was taken off the floor in the first two minutes, it took away that advantage. I'm not saying that analysis was correct, but we never got a chance to find out whether it was.

Speaking of Shipp, he provided a lot of hope for next year. His play down the stretch this year was excellent, and he was the lone bright spot in the semi-final. He finished with 18 points, shooting 50%, grabbed four rebounds, dished out five assists, and stole the ball four times. It will be good to have him back, even if Afflalo decides to leave.

So ignore the vitriol in the previous post. It was a disappointing end to an excellent season, and again, the Bruins should be even better next year with the arrivals of Kevin Love and Chace Stanback, combined with the continued improvement of Aboya, LRMAM, Keefe, Roll, and Westbrook. They may even get contributions from Ryan Wright and Nikola Dragovic. I still think they're a top five team going into 2007-2008.

So congratulations to the Bruins on a great season, and hopefully OSU will beat the shit out of Florida.

If I'd Only Known

Dear NCAA,

Next year, when you decide in October who will be in the National Championship game, please let me know so I don't have to waste a whole season watching what I think is a fairly called college basketball season.

Utlimately, maybe it wouldn't have made a difference, but I think the decision the fact that they simply weren't going to let Arron Afflalo play meaningful role in the game was devastating.

Also, Billy Packer can eat a cock. He's a piece of shit, plain and simple.

So What's Gonna Happen Tomorrow?

Hell if I know. Of course, I actually did pretty well on my selections, getting three of the Final Four participants correct, and I may have been an Acie Law IV layup away from having all four. I also correctly picked U$C to beat Texas, and UNLV to beat Wisconsin, which were among the larger upsets I got correct (at least by perception).

But honestly, I'm not terribly optimistic about UCLA's chances versus Florida. Keep in mind, people who know me will tell you that I'm a pessimist by nature, and images from last year's game are still stuck in my mind.

There are two players that I see holding the keys for their respective teams. For the Gators, it's Corey Brewer. The Bruins have played enough teams with good big men that I think they neutralize Horford and Noah. But Brewer is a big time matchup problem with his size, quickness, and ability to play on the perimeter as well as slash to the basket. And while it may look like Horford and Noah just kill teams inside, it starts with the respect that teams have to pay to Brewer. Hopefully coach Howland has developed a strategy to prevent him from opening up the middle for the dunk fest that we witnessed last year.

For the Bruins, I think the X-factor is Josh Shipp, and seeing as how he's the only guy in the starting line-ups who played no role last year, I'm not really going out on a limb with that. But convential wisdom says that Brewer will guard Afflalo, and that leads Humphrey to guard Shipp. I think Josh Shipp can exploit that matchup. The question is, will he be willing to beat Humphrey and settle for mid-range jumpers. I think he can beat Humphrey, but Josh likes to go to the basket, and that's where he could run into trouble. I still have nightmares of the 2001 Illini losing to Arizona in the regional final, watching Frankie Williams and company getting swatted by Loren Woods again and again and again. If they had simply pulled up from five feet, the Illini would have rolled in that game. But I digress.

If Shipp has a good shooting game, the Bruins have an excellent chance to move on. Brewer is going to have to guard one of Shipp and Afflalo, and I think it give the other a big advantage that the Bruins will need to hammer.

I'm not going to pick against UCLA. I think this team can adapt to many different styles and still be successful. Witness their sweeps over both Arizona and Washington State this year. They'll play your game and beat you at it. But Florida is very good, and playing very well right now.

Either way, it should be a very entertaining game.

UCLA 68; Kansas 55 - Bruins Off to the Land of Many Peachtree Streets

Seriously, I've been to Atlanta, and there are like 18 streets all called Peachtree. It's very confusing. But I digress...

Look, this isn't gonna be an easy post for me to write without going into how much I hate Kansas. It started with Roy Williams poaching SoCal's best players, and the hatred intensified when that cocksucker Bail $elfish left Illinois to take the Kansas job. Let's get one thing straight, $elfish is a great recruiter, but he is a flat out AWFUL game coach (with an exception or two, which I'll get into later). Ask any Illinois fan who witnessed the 2003 debacle against Notre Dame where he suddenly decided that guarding the perimeter was not a priority, and when ND hit a ton of first half threes, he still thought it wasn't a priority. Result? Predictable.

Let me go ahead and write out the quotes from Kansas players right now:

• We missed a lot of easy shots.
• We missed a bunch of shots that we usually make.
• We picked a bad time to miss a bunch of layups.
• Yada...Yada...Yada....

Pyrrhus wrote a great diary about this the other day at Bruins Nation. It seems that every team who plays against UCLA in the tournament miraculously suffers through a bad shooting game. Like it's magic or something. Note to Bruins opponents: Their defense is very good. Those shots you missed, they weren't easy. You were rushing, because you knew if you'd taken another half second, you would have been stuffed or stripped. At least in missing, you had a shot at the offensive rebound.

On to the the game itself, I'll be honest. I was not happy with the first half. Too many turnovers. Too many bad decisions. At about the 15 minute mark, I thought 'just get it to three by halftime'. But a nice run over the last five minutes, and a great play at the end of the half (which failed later in the game) gave the Bruins a four point cushion. At that point of the game, I called my dad and said the first five minutes of the half were of utmost importance. This has been kind of a theme of mine this season. Ever since they lost the Stanford game, I've been all over the importance of the first five minutes of the second half. Well, tonight, after the first five and half minutes of the second half, UCLA pushed a four point lead out to nine, and would make it 11 just a minute later. Kansas never returned to that four point deficit.

So many heroes tonight. Josh Shipp's three pointers, including the three at the end of the first half. He finished with 9 points, 5 assists, and 6 boards. Darren Collison handled the Kansas pressure for the most part and tossed in 14 points. Don't look at the assist to turnover ratio. It's meaningless tonight. The defense of Aboya, Mata, and LRMAM, once again forcing a ton of misses on "easy" shots. Russel Westbrook, 2-2 on a dunk and a layup. Instant offense. And I'll say it right now, I hope Collison doesn't leave, but if he does, I could see Russel making the same type of transition that Collison has made in Jordan Farmar's absence.

But the hero, UCLA's best player, was UCLA's best player, Arron Afflalo. What. A. Game. He poured in 24 points. 10-15 from the field, most of those in the second half (he started off poorly). 3-7 from beyond the arc. And he showed the country once again that you should never feel comfortable in the final second of the shot clock. He nailed one. Collison nailed one. They were back breakers for Kansas. There's just something about giving up those types of shots late. You think you're about to get the ball back. You think you have a chance to cut a six point deficit to three or four, and all of the sudden your down by nine. This kid is a winner, and the only bad news from tonight is that he probably cemented his status as an NBA first rounder.

Ben Howland. Talk about a class act, and a hell of a game coach. He stayed with the game plan, and knew his players could execute. And you had to love the respect he showed former UCLA PBP announcer Dick Enberg. And I will give credit to $elfish for his strategy with about 3 minutes left. Kansas had not committed many fouls, and they knew they would need to probably put UCLA on the line at the end. But he didn't wait until a minute remained to foul on purpose. He got his team to really start ball hawking with about three minutes left. Go for the foul, and if you foul, who cares? It was a good strategy and it led to a couple of turnovers.

But despite the turnovers, despite some poor decision making, UCLA is heading to it's second straight final four. Ben Howland has returned this team to the top of college basketball's elite. And these kids, who have worked so hard all year, are headed back to college basketball's biggest stage. Congratulations, Bruins.

Pitt 55; UCLA 64 - Bruins Dance Into the Elite 8

Not quite so much drama as the last time the Bruins were the Sweet 16, but a win is a win, and the Bruins are still playing. They'll face Kansas on Saturday.

In a bit of a change of pace, UCLA won this game at the free throw line. That's right, I said they *won* it at the line, making 23 of their 26 free throws. And quite frankly, if you watched the game, you shouldn't have been surprised. Why? Look at the free throw distribution. Of their 26 free throws, 22 were shot by Arron Afflalo (10/10), Darren Collison (6/6), and Josh Shipp (5/6). If those three had shot 86% of UCLA's free throws all season, they wouldn't have been at the bottom of the Pac 10.

The defense was stifling yet again. The press will write about how UCLA was lucky that Pitt missed so many easy shots. My response: What easy shots? Not only did the Bruins play their typical ball hawking defense on the perimeter, but they brought quick double teams on Aaron Gray (who had all of one assist to show for his great passing out of double teams), and they routinely made life miserable for Pitt in the paint. Lorenzo Mata may only be somewhere between 6'8" and 6'10", but the guy probably has the strongest lower body in the country. You simply don't back him down. Other than the misadventures of Alfred Aboya and Ryan Wright (note to Dick Enberg: They aren't the same guy - Wright wears a head band), the Bruin defense was very stingy inside.

Unsung hero of the game? He was 2-2 with five points, no assists, no rebounds, no steals. But Michael Roll knocked down both of his open shots. With the Bruins leading by five, and under a minute to play, Darren Collison drove the lane, kicked it out to Roll, and his two point jumper made it a three possession game, essentially icing the victory. He didn't force it. He didn't try to do things he couldn't do in the first half. He waited for the game to come to him, and hit a huge shot.

Arron Afflalo shot the ball poorly, but did his damage at the free throw line and finished with 17 points. Josh Shipp shot it a little better, hit a couple of big threes, and finished with 16 of his. And Darren Collison didn't put up great numbers across the board, but he still finished with 12 points on 3-5 shooting, though I would like to see a little better assist/turnover ratio (4/3 may not cut it against Kansas).

Again, I don't know a ton about the Jayhawks, other than I hate their coach, and I don't think he's all that good. From what I saw tonight, they look long and athletic. No huge force on the inside, but they may create matchup problems in the backcourt. I like the fact that Collison has the experience edge over Sherron Collins. That could be a difference maker. And the best news of all, there won't be any other games on at the same time, so I'll actually get to see the whole game in HD.

Final notes: It's hard not to like Aaron Gray. Dude looks like the Michelin Man when he comes out the game, bouncing from side to side with a dumb guy grin on his face. Good luck to him in the NBA. Also, Satan lost tonight. Sure, it was against OhowIhateOhioState, but Satan is dead nonetheless. Bruce Pearl, quite possibly the biggest piece of shit in college basketball, is done, and that makes me happy.

UCLA v. Pitt

There's been a lot of silence from me leading up to this game. That's due to a couple of things. Between traveling home for work, going to client sites, and general business, I haven't had a ton of time.

But mostly, I don't really know what to say. I haven't seen Pitt play all year. Between watching a lot of Big Ten and Pac Ten games, I don't have a lot of time for or interest in Big East basketball. I know they have a talented big man in Aaron Gray. For much better insight than I can provide, visit these guys. They do a lot better job of previewing these things. I can only comment on what I've seen, and like I said, I haven't seen Pitt.

I'll try and have more on Friday. Of course, I'm destined to either watch this game on a computer scree (again), or without sound. Ohio State plays at the same time, and this is Big Ten country. That means no Bruins on local TV. No Bruins in High Def. Sometimes I really hate living in Chicago.

Survive and Advance - First Impressions

It wasn't pretty, but in one fell swoop, the Bruins have moved on, and eliminated probably the most despicable human being in college basketball.

Darren Collison was the show tonight, and on an evening where he didn't get a lot of help, they really needed him to step up. Congrats to DC and the rest of the Bruins.

And for the record, Kelvin Sampson is the dictionary definition of a piece of shit. He's a scumbag, plain and simple, and the fact that Indiana hired him reflects very poorly on that institution. There's a colloquialism that says "I wouldn't piss on him if he were on fire", and for me, Kelvin Samscum is the person for whom that was written. Pure and simple, he's a grade A shitbag.

One Down, Five To Go

UCLA

It wasn't the 50 point win I was hoping for, but I'll settle for 28.

Another slow start. UCLA led by only one with eight minutes remaining in the first half. But Michael Roll, slumping lately, hit two consecutive three pointers that set off a 22-5 run to end the first half, and the game was essentially over at that point.

Apparently Darren Collison is feeling OK. His numbers were good, but not eye-popping. 14 points, 8 assists, 3 steals, 3 turnovers. But the number that should catch your eye, especially in a 28 point blowout, is 32, as in minutes. I've gotta think the ankle felt fine if Ben Howland was willing to leave him in that long. Josh Shipp's thumb appears to be OK as well. He finished with 12 points on 5-10 shooting (2-4 from long range). But if UCLA is going to make a deep run, their best player needs to be their best player, and last night Arron Afflalo was exactly that, finishing with 22 points in 32 minutes, to go along with 8 rebounds (though I'd like to see him cut down on the 3 turnovers). He struggled early, but found his stroke as the game winning, finishing 8-15 from the field, and 3-5 from beyond the arc.

In an apparent homage to Cade McNown, Lorenzo Mata recovered from a bit of an upset stomach (not that you would have known it if all you had was the TV broadcast), puking up his lunch before returning to the court and throwing down a couple of dunks on his way to 6 points and 7 rebounds.

Indiana awaits, after having taken care of Gonzaga, which means no rematch of last year's regional semi-final. I've watched Indiana a few times this year, and quite frankly, I'm not particularly impressed. DJ White is a very good player, and he's pretty polished offensively, but he's not particularly tall. I think the Bruins can cover him with one guy, at least when Mata is on the floor. Mata's strong lower body should be able to keep White from the rim. That's going to be important, because if they're forced to double team, it will leave the perimeter open for Indiana's good long range shooters. UCLA is a better team, but this is certainly a game they're capable of losing.

Illinois

Virginia Tech awaits the Illini tonight. Haven't seen them play, but they seem to have a strange habit of beating very good teams (they took out UNC twice), and losing to mediocre teams (Florida State, NC State twice, Clemson). That's great news for Illinois, because the Illini are all kinds of mediocre.

The Picks

I'll preface this by saying that I'm kind of doing this freestyle. In other words, the picks I make here may or may not be the picks I make in any particular pool. I just kind of look for teams that jump out at me, and it could be different every time. So here we go (upsets in red):

First Round

Midwest Region

Florida over Jackson State
Arizona over Purdue
Butler over Old Dominion
Maryland over Davidson
Notre Dame over Winthrop
Oregon over Miami (OH)
UNLV over Georgia Tech
Wisconsin over Texas A&M
Yup. No first round upsets on this side

West Region

Kansas over Niagra (barely)
Kentucky over Villanova
Illinois over Virginia Tech (C'mon, I have to)
Southern Illinois over Holy Cross
Duke over VCU
Pittsburgh over Wright State
Indiana over Gonzaga
UCLA over Weber State

East Region

UNC over Eastern Kentucky
MSU over Marquette
U$C over Arkansas
Texas over NMSU
Vanderbilt over George Washington
Washington State over Oral Roberts
Texas Tech over Boston College
Georgetown over Belmont

South Region

OSU over Central Connecticut State
BYU over Xavier
Tennessee over Long Beach State
Virginia over Albany
Stanford over Louiville
Texas A&M over Penn
Nevada over Creighton
Memphis over North Texas

Second Round

Midwest Region

Florida over Arizona
Maryland over Butler
Oregon over UND
UNLV over Wisconsin

West Region

Kansas over Kentucky
Illinois over SIU
Duke over Pitt
UCLA over Indiana

East Region

UNC over MSU
U$C over Texas
WSU over Vandy
Georgetown over Texas Tech

South Region

OSU over BYU
Tennessee over Virginia
Texas A&M over Stanford
Memphis over Nevada

Sweet Sixteen

Midwest Region

Florida over Maryland
Oregon over UNLV

West Region

Kansas over Illinois (that hurts)
UCLA over Duke

East Region

UNC over U$C
Georgetown over Wazzu

South Region

OSU over Tennessee
Texas A&M over Memphis

Elite Eight

Midwest Region

Florida over Oregon - Florida's size will be too much

West Region

UCLA over Kansas - A season of playing in a crappy conference, plus crappy coaching, catches up with Kansas

East Region

Georgetown over UNC - I haven't seen much of Georgetown, but I'm not all that impressed with UNC

South

Texas A&M over OSU - Acie Law IV's experience is too much for the Buckeye freshman

Final Four

UCLA over Florida in a rematch of last year's final
Georgetown over Texas A&M

Championship

UCLA over Georgetown.

Talk about a run. If this were to hold, UCLA would have knocked off Indiana, Duke, Kansas, Florida, and Georgetown. Other than Florida, that's a lot of tradition. But something just seems right about UCLA riding it's basketball team to it's 100th overall national championship. Besides, I overrate the teams I root for all the time, so it's hard to pick against them when they're actually good.

NCAA Tournament - First Impressions

UCLA

The Bruins ought to send the committee some flowers and chocolate. They lost their number one seed, but got the next best (maybe better) thing with a 2 seed in the West. They'll play in Sacramento, then (God willing) San Jose on their way to another final four. As thousands of others have probably mentioned at this point, this is the Ben Howland invitational bracket, as the Bruins will match up with Howland's alma mater, Weber State, in the first round, then face a potential regional semi-final against Pitt. Too bad NAU couldn't find its way into this year's field.

Illinois

The other side of the bracket is the Bruce Weber invitational. Illinois, if it can get past Virginia Tech (it's the most obvious 12-5 upset on the board in my opinion), faces a potential second round matchup with Weber's old school, Southern Illinois. Get past them, and former Illinois coach Bill Self looms on the horizon. That is, of course, assuming that Self can get past the first and second rounds, a tall order given his recent tournament performances.

Mid-Majors

Speaking of Illinois, there has been a lot of howling about Illinois not deserving its place in the field, despite a superior tournament resume compared to #9 seed Purdue, who finished with a worse record, with a worse strength of schedule, and finished 15 spots behind Illinois in the final RPI. Their lone argument over Illinois was win head to head at Mackey Arena.

But here's a little thought experiment. Over the last 20 years or so (give or take), the argument that mid-majors are treated unfairly at the expense of the power conferences has grown. This year, you're likely to hear that Drexel should have been in the field over Arkansas or Illinois, despite finishing fourth in their conference. Already there are howls that UNLV and Nevada were unfairly seeded. How could the country's #10 team be a 7 seed?

Let's assume this argument has merit. Wouldn't the likely result be a slew of very good, yet underrated, mid major teams playing in the NIT? And wouldn't they be playing against a bunch of overrated and mediocre power conference teams in the NIT? And if we accept those premises, then would you expect the mid-majors to be relatively successful in the NIT? I'm not talking about dominant, I'm talking about holding their own.

You know how many mid-major teams have won the NIT in the last 20 years? 1. Uno. Note that I'm considering Conference USA to be something other than a mid-major, as Memphis won the championship before all of the good teams left for the Big East. Now, this is somewhat tempered by the fact that most early round games are played at the home courts of power conference teams. On the flip side, how much home court advantage is there in the loser tournament at power conference schools?

So Drexel, go out and show you're the best of the losers, and maybe in the future you and your mid-major brethren will start to get some respect.