The Second Half

Wow, get a front page link from the Rev and everyone stops by. Anyway, with the second half getting underway tonight, I figured I'd reprint an email that I sent to Keith Law (formerly of Prospectus and the Blue Jays, currently of ESPN), with whom I've had an informal correspondence over the years (long story), in response to the excepts I read from his ESPN write up on the Angels the other day. It's behind the wall, and I'm cheap, so I haven't read the whole thing. It should still serve as a quick assessment of how I see the Angels doing in the second half.

• The Angels rotation will be better in the second half simply because of the return of Colon, and the absence of Jeff Weaver in favor Jered. Obviously, that's health permitting, but even if Colon goes back to the DL, they'll be better off with Saunders getting those starts than they would be with either Jeff Weaver or Carrasco/Gregg. If they lose Lackey or Santana to injury, though, they're in trouble. But geez, Kelvim Escobar is their fifth starter!
  
• I really don't think their defense can be any worse than it was in the first half. And it wasn't simply a case of making a lot of errors. They were very unlucky, too (this is eyewitness testimony as opposed to statistical analysis). They gave up more than their fair share of unearned runs, mostly because it seemed like just about every single guy who reached base on an error ended up scoring. I checked about 60 games into the season, and they were so far out in front on unearned runs that it was ridiculous. Their DER is still pretty decent, and I really don't expect them to keep making the errors that they've made to this point. I would expect their overall run prevention to get better.
  
• I can't see the offense really being any better or worse. It's tough to tell, though, because if Anderson gets hurt, the offense will probably improve. And if they can deal Kennedy and get Kendrick in there everyday, it should be better. Conversely, if they insist on playing Erstad if/when he returns, it will be worse. And I really have no idea if they're going to deal for a bat (I sort of hope they don't). I don't necessarily buy the argument that says Vlad is in a slump, and he'll be better in the second half. My gut tells me he's just having a bad year or he's hiding an injury, but either way, I suspect that what we've seen is what we're going to get.
  
• I can't see the offense really being any better or worse. It's tough to tell, though, because if Anderson gets hurt, the offense will probably improve. And if they can deal Kennedy and get Kendrick in there everyday, it should be better. Conversely, if they insist on playing Erstad if/when he returns, it will be worse. And I really have no idea if they're going to deal for a bat (I sort of hope they don't). I don't necessarily buy the argument that says Vlad is in a slump, and he'll be better in the second half. My gut tells me he's just having a bad year or he's hiding an injury, but either way, I suspect that what we've seen is what we're going to get.

Ultimately, I don't think any of the AL West teams are all that good. They've all got good elements, but none are really good teams, which is why I think the Angels have just as good a chance at winning the division than any of them. In the past when I've picked against the Angels, it's because I thought the other teams were too good for the Angels to beat out (and I was wrong, of course). This year, I just don't think any of them are very good. And I don't really buy the injury excuses for Oakland. It's not like we're talking about injuries to Lou Gherig and Cal Ripken. Usually I'm enough of a pessimist that no matter how weak the Angels opponents are, they still scare me. This year, none of them scare me.

As the second half begins, I'll actually be heading out of town for the weekend, so I won't be seeing any of this weekend's series. I'll be leaving tonight to head up to Michigan to play the 10th best public course in the country (per Golf Digest), Arcadia Bluffs. Seriously, click the link. This place is freaking amazing. Coming back on Sunday, so I may see some of that game, but I'll also be heading out the driving range one last time to prepare for Monday's qualifier for the Illinois State Amateur championship. I haven't really played very well since I qualified for the Mid-Am (then played just awful in the actual event itself), but I've been encouraged by my work on the range this week, so we'll see.


And for the hell of it, here's an old Catherine Wheel video: