Thursday, April 05, 2007

Frankie Under the Microscope

Apparently MLB has initiated an investigation into whatever the stuff is on Frankie's hat. This all started when Derek Zumsteg blogged about it on the site he set up, I assume, to promote his book, but I could be wrong about his intentions (about the site). Full disclosure, I've always liked Derek, and had a few very brief electronic conversations/thread interactions with him in the old Primer days. I don't think he wrote a book and then went looking to find a guy cheating to get his name out there. I think if anything, he wrote the book and got used to looking for that kind of stuff. You know how when you're in the market for a new car, you start noticing every car on the street and wondering what it costs (or is that just me)? Kinda like that. Anyway, I'll try to break down what we know:
  1. Frankie had some white junk on the underside of the brim of his cap. It's pretty clearly visible in some pictures, so it's really undisputed.
  2. Frankie seems to like to touch that part of his hat a lot before he pitches.
  3. Frankie throws some really nasty stuff.
That looks bad, but there's a few other things that we also know:
  1. Frankie has been going to his hat like that since he entered the league in 2002.
  2. The underside of the new hat that New Era is producing this year is black.
  3. Frankie has been throwing really nasty stuff since he came into the league.
That's basically all that we know for sure. Now for the speculation:
  1. Possibility #1 - Frankie feels like he needs something extra this season, so he's started loading up his cap with a foreign substance to get more action on the ball. If I were, say, a Mariners fan (like, for example, Derek), I'd probably be pre-disposed to believing that. It would also be good pub for my book if I pointed that out and everyone ran with it(hey, like I said, it's speculation).
  2. Possibility #2 - Frankie has been cheating for years, and no one has ever caught him, and no one has ever said anything, including current Mariner and noted cocksucker Jose Guillen, who famously ratted out Brendan Donnelly a couple of years ago when he was in Washington. Note, however, that Frankie didn't pitch in any of those games, or maybe Guillen would have done the same thing then.
  3. Possibility #3 - Frankie has been cheating for years, and no one ever noticed because the color of the underside of the hate hat. Note that this also requires Frankie to be really stupid, as he must have not noticed that any substance he was using was now pretty noticeable.
  4. Possibility #4 - Frankie has loaded his hat with some rosin, or whatever the hell they're putting in the bag this year, so that he can dry his fingers without constantly going back to the bag. This is seemingly innocuous, but also technically illegal.
  5. Possibility #5 - Frankie goes to the bag, then wipes his fingers off on his hat, inadvertantly depositing rosin on his hat in the process. This would, one would think, also leave a white mark on the top of his hat. Photos are inconclusive at best.
Personally, it doesn't make much sense to me for him to have started cheating this season. If he's doing it, chances are he's always been doing it, and I have a hard time believing that with all of the video of opposing players that teams pour over looking for any edge, any quirk, any little tip-off, that they wouldn't have noticed that, and at least had it questioned at some point.

I actually think the most likely most likely explanation on that list is #5, and it gets decreasingly plausible as you ascend towards number 1. Of course, they also get increasingly worse for Frankie as you ascend towards number 1, so my rules of plausibility are probably based in bias.

A couple of other notes: Derek claims that video shows the pitches where it's "clear" he loaded up (all fastballs) move a lot more than the pitches where it's not clear. Personally, I think this is crap. It's almost impossible to perceive the motion on a four seem fastball on television, and the gameday feature on MLB.com shows the ball moving anywhere from about 2-3 inches consistently. FWIW, Rob Neyer thinks it's either chalk or talcum, which he's using to keep his fingers dry, presumably as opposed to loading up the ball.

And finally, I'm not trying to bust Derek's chops on this, but I think he reported this incredibly unprofessionally. That's fine, it's his blog. But for Christ's sake, the title of the post is "Francisco Rodriguez Doctoring the Ball". That doesn't leave you a lot of wiggle room in case the whole thing turns out to be fairly innocent. You'd think a guy who spent a lot of time wiping egg off of his face after announcing that Pete Rose had reached an agreement with Selig for reinstatement might measure his words a little more carefully.

I'll be curious to see what they have to say about this tonight during the broadcast, which I get to watch now.

See also: The Chronicler's take on the subject.

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Why I Gave Money to John Kerry

The man gets things done. InDemand and MLB just announced that they've reached a deal that will put Extra Innings on cable television this season, and going forward. Baseball is back on in my apartment.

Seriously, games are already on my television. This is a happy day. I'm welcoming myself back to the Halosphere.

And a major, major thumbs up to Maury Brown over at the Bizness of Baseball and Bizness of Sports for following these negotiations non-stop for the last few weeks. He did a great job of aggregating the reports and being essentially a one stop shop for updates, and a forum for all of us to bitch about not having access by opening day. Great work, Maury.

Angels win again

Sure wish I could have seen it.

Thanks, Mr. Selig, you piece of shit.

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

I Know Yesterday was Opening Day...

But if you're looking for baseball content, you've probably come to the wrong place. And there probably won't be any for a while. You can keep checking here to find out when it might be back, if ever.

Monday, April 02, 2007

Re-visiting Saturday Night

I'm gonna be honest, I've got very little memory of what happened Saturday, and that's probably for the best. The brief post that preceded this one was an alcohol fueled rant, and trust me, there was a lot of alcohol involved. Word of advice, it's probably not a good idea to get really, really drunk the night before you have a morning golf tournament. We finished second, which was less surprising than the fact that we were even able to wake up in time to make it. Of course, we won it last year, and I played the whole round with food poisoning after spending the morning puking, so maybe I was in better shape this year.

If you had told me before the game that the Bruins would win the turnover battle 16-3, I would have felt pretty good about the game. Of course, that would have meant omitting the fact that they were completely dominated on the boards, that they couldn't shoot (39%), and that they really couldn't shoot from beyond the arc (22%). The Bruins had the game within four early in the second half before Florida ran off a 21-4 run that more or less decided the game.

As for the officiating, I don't believe the refs cost UCLA this game. I do believe that the game was pretty much over when they called the second foul on Arron Afflalo. They can't win a big game without Afflalo playing a major role, and when he was taken off the floor practically before the game even started on what were really ticky tack fouls, the game was essentially over. They can't win a big game when he only gets 22 minutes.

Before the game, I figured that a key for the Bruins would be the player (either Afflalo or Shipp) who was not guarded by Brewer, because I figured that was a matchup advantage for UCLA. When Afflalo was taken off the floor in the first two minutes, it took away that advantage. I'm not saying that analysis was correct, but we never got a chance to find out whether it was.

Speaking of Shipp, he provided a lot of hope for next year. His play down the stretch this year was excellent, and he was the lone bright spot in the semi-final. He finished with 18 points, shooting 50%, grabbed four rebounds, dished out five assists, and stole the ball four times. It will be good to have him back, even if Afflalo decides to leave.

So ignore the vitriol in the previous post. It was a disappointing end to an excellent season, and again, the Bruins should be even better next year with the arrivals of Kevin Love and Chace Stanback, combined with the continued improvement of Aboya, LRMAM, Keefe, Roll, and Westbrook. They may even get contributions from Ryan Wright and Nikola Dragovic. I still think they're a top five team going into 2007-2008.

So congratulations to the Bruins on a great season, and hopefully OSU will beat the shit out of Florida.

Saturday, March 31, 2007

If I'd Only Known

Dear NCAA,

Next year, when you decide in October who will be in the National Championship game, please let me know so I don't have to waste a whole season watching what I think is a fairly called college basketball season.

Utlimately, maybe it wouldn't have made a difference, but I think the decision the fact that they simply weren't going to let Arron Afflalo play meaningful role in the game was devastating.

Also, Billy Packer can eat a cock. He's a piece of shit, plain and simple.

Friday, March 30, 2007

So What's Gonna Happen Tomorrow?

Hell if I know. Of course, I actually did pretty well on my selections, getting three of the Final Four participants correct, and I may have been an Acie Law IV layup away from having all four. I also correctly picked U$C to beat Texas, and UNLV to beat Wisconsin, which were among the larger upsets I got correct (at least by perception).

But honestly, I'm not terribly optimistic about UCLA's chances versus Florida. Keep in mind, people who know me will tell you that I'm a pessimist by nature, and images from last year's game are still stuck in my mind.

There are two players that I see holding the keys for their respective teams. For the Gators, it's Corey Brewer. The Bruins have played enough teams with good big men that I think they neutralize Horford and Noah. But Brewer is a big time matchup problem with his size, quickness, and ability to play on the perimeter as well as slash to the basket. And while it may look like Horford and Noah just kill teams inside, it starts with the respect that teams have to pay to Brewer. Hopefully coach Howland has developed a strategy to prevent him from opening up the middle for the dunk fest that we witnessed last year.

For the Bruins, I think the X-factor is Josh Shipp, and seeing as how he's the only guy in the starting line-ups who played no role last year, I'm not really going out on a limb with that. But convential wisdom says that Brewer will guard Afflalo, and that leads Humphrey to guard Shipp. I think Josh Shipp can exploit that matchup. The question is, will he be willing to beat Humphrey and settle for mid-range jumpers. I think he can beat Humphrey, but Josh likes to go to the basket, and that's where he could run into trouble. I still have nightmares of the 2001 Illini losing to Arizona in the regional final, watching Frankie Williams and company getting swatted by Loren Woods again and again and again. If they had simply pulled up from five feet, the Illini would have rolled in that game. But I digress.

If Shipp has a good shooting game, the Bruins have an excellent chance to move on. Brewer is going to have to guard one of Shipp and Afflalo, and I think it give the other a big advantage that the Bruins will need to hammer.

I'm not going to pick against UCLA. I think this team can adapt to many different styles and still be successful. Witness their sweeps over both Arizona and Washington State this year. They'll play your game and beat you at it. But Florida is very good, and playing very well right now.

Either way, it should be a very entertaining game.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

I Think This is Where I'm Supposed To Say "I'm Out"

After roughly two years of baseball blogging, this blog will more than likely be going, if not dark, than at least dim over the summer months. Despite what appear like fair offers from InDemand, and in the face of repeated requests from Senators to at least offer the Extra Innings package this season while continuing negotiations over the alleged 2009 launch of the Baseball Network, Major League Baseball's Deputy Douchebag, Bob Dupuy has all but eliminated any hope of digital cable networks carrying extra innings this season.
Senators spent two hours urging Major League Baseball and TV executives not to let the Extra Innings pay package land exclusively on DirecTV's satellite system. But despite congressional brush-back pitches — warnings of legislation and even the oft-repeated threat to review baseball's anti-trust exemption — MLB President Bob DuPuy didn't flinch.

Although he promised to continue negotiating through Saturday, the eve of opening day, DuPuy said baseball was willing to make an unpopular call — inconvenience about 230,000 Extra Innings subscribers on cable and the Dish Network satellite system — to get broad distribution of the league's planned Baseball Channel on DirecTV in 2009.

But DuPuy would not agree to extend the negotiations into the season, allowing cable and the Dish Network to carry Extra Innings while talks continued.

"We as a business matter view the Baseball Channel as critical to our long-term survival and the interests of our fans who want more baseball,'' he said during the two-hour hearing.
He left out "of course, the fans who want more baseball but either don't want to, or can't, switch to DirecTV can go fuck themselves."

You can certainly see where he's coming from. Nearly a century and a half of professional baseball, with record attendance and interest over the last few seasons, revenue through the roof. But dammit, if they can't get the baseball channel in front of 16 million DirecTV subscribers, 15.7 million of whom won't even know they have it, then baseball is doomed. Or, as Bender might say "DOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMED".

And let's get one thing clear about Dupuy: The man is a lying sack of shit. Baseball refuses to offer Extra Innings to InDemand unless they match the terms offered by DirecTV. Only, one of those terms was that baseball would give DirecTV a 20% equity stake in the baseball channel, a stake not offered to the other carriers. So in other words, InDemand and other dish networks need to match the terms that DirecTV gave to MLB, but MLB doesn't have to match the terms it gave to DirecTV. Or put more simply, pay us the same consideration as we got from DirecTV, and we'll give you a fair amount less than we're giving DirecTV. Like I said, the guy is a piece of shit.

So what does this mean for you (and by "you" I mean "me")? Well, it means that for the time being, I'm more or less done with baseball. I will not be switching to DirecTV (where rumor is there's a two month wait for HD equipment). I will not be purchasing the streaming video offered by MLB.TV (motto: For an extra $20, you can get the version that only kinda sucks!). I will not be purchasing the package that provides radio broadcasts. Baseball has essentially decided that it no longer wants my business. And that's fine. That's their prerogative. And I certainly don't expect others to join me. This is not a crusade. It's not a boycott. They've made a business decision, and I've made a business decision.

The natural next step, of course, is that unless a deal is reached in the next two days, I won't be blogging about baseball anymore. I don't like to blog about sporting events I haven't at least witnessed on television, other than to comment on some news item. And since I won't be doing that anymore, I probably won't be covering those events here.

It's not going to be easy, and I may completely relapse. It's like giving up heroin (or, at least what I imagine giving up heroin may be like, without the actual physical symptoms...OK maybe that's a bad analogy). I've been addicted to baseball for as long as I can remember, and I've been a pretty loyal customer over that time as well. But I imagine that if I can get through the first month or so, I'll be gone (from baseball) for good....or at least for the year.

So unless something breaks in the next couple of days, consider this a swan song of sorts, at least as it pertains to baseball. I'll still check in on the final four, the occasional concert, and when UCLA football gets underway again, it will probably be business as usual next fall (though I can't guarantee that - sometimes it's too easy to not blog).

Monday, March 26, 2007

He Has Landed

Jack Motherfucking Johnson is a King.

Hoodoo Gurus w/ Goldstar at the Abbey - 3/25/07

It's not often that you get to a see a band in concert whom you've been listening to for almost 20 years, especially when you thought they'd broken up about 10 years ago. It's also not often that I'm arguably the youngest person in the crowd. But lo and behold, my update email from Pollstar told me that the Hoodoo Gurus were playing the Abbey, and I felt obligated to get a ticket. I'm very glad I did.

Goldstar, who is apparently a local Chicago band led off the evening, and quite frankly, I found them to be pretty entertaining. I want to be delicate about this, but these aren't exactly spring chickens we're talking about. Throw in the matching shirts, and I'm sure one can be forgiven for underestimating them. But they played a very tight set, threw in some comedic banter between songs, and generally seemed to be enjoying themselves on stage.

The Gurus took the stage shortly thereafter, and after firing up with about a 20 second jam, they launched into "I Want You Back". They played an excellent mix of songs from across their eight proper albums, without too much focus on any one in particular. They hit all of the major tracks, though I would have loved to have heard Leilani, Death Defying, Desiree, or I Don't Mind, I can't really complain about the set list. I've tried to reproduce what I could remember, and this, like always, is not the order in which they were actually played:

  1. I Want You Back - Stoneage Romeos
  2. Dig It Up - Stoneage Romeos
  3. Kamikaze Pilot - Stoneage Romeos
  4. Bittersweet - Mars Needs Guitars
  5. Poison Pen - Mars Needs Guitars
  6. Like Wow, Wipeout - Mars Needs Guitars
  7. What's My Scene - Blow Your Cool
  8. Where Nowhere Is - Blow Your Cool
  9. Middle of the Land - Blow Your Cool
  10. Come Anytime - Magna Cum Louder
  11. Another World - Magna Cum Louder
  12. Miss Freelove '69 - Kinky
  13. 1,000 Miles Away - Kinky
  14. The Right Time - Crank
  15. Form A Circle - Crank
  16. Be My Guru - Stoneage Romeos (Bonus Track)
  17. At least two or three from Mach Schau
  18. At least two or three from Blue Cave
That's a pretty impressive grouping of songs. I usually expect about 15 songs out of a headliner. Anything on top of that is gravy, and they played upwards of 20 last night. They even tossed in a couple of requests.

Decent crowd. I'd guess the Abbey holds a couple hundred people (a little bigger than Schuba's), and it was more or less filled. I was about 10 feet from the stage, and it looked pretty packed behind me. If you're a fan, or even if you just have a passing familiarity with their stuff, do yourself a favor and check them out. It's called entertainment, folks. Not every song has to change the world.





Saturday, March 24, 2007

UCLA 68; Kansas 55 - Bruins Off to the Land of Many Peachtree Streets

Seriously, I've been to Atlanta, and there are like 18 streets all called Peachtree. It's very confusing. But I digress...

Look, this isn't gonna be an easy post for me to write without going into how much I hate Kansas. It started with Roy Williams poaching SoCal's best players, and the hatred intensified when that cocksucker Bail $elfish left Illinois to take the Kansas job. Let's get one thing straight, $elfish is a great recruiter, but he is a flat out AWFUL game coach (with an exception or two, which I'll get into later). Ask any Illinois fan who witnessed the 2003 debacle against Notre Dame where he suddenly decided that guarding the perimeter was not a priority, and when ND hit a ton of first half threes, he still thought it wasn't a priority. Result? Predictable.

Let me go ahead and write out the quotes from Kansas players right now:
  • We missed a lot of easy shots.
  • We missed a bunch of shots that we usually make.
  • We picked a bad time to miss a bunch of layups.
  • Yada...Yada...Yada....
Pyrrhus wrote a great diary about this the other day at Bruins Nation. It seems that every team who plays against UCLA in the tournament miraculously suffers through a bad shooting game. Like it's magic or something. Note to Bruins opponents: Their defense is very good. Those shots you missed, they weren't easy. You were rushing, because you knew if you'd taken another half second, you would have been stuffed or stripped. At least in missing, you had a shot at the offensive rebound.

On to the the game itself, I'll be honest. I was not happy with the first half. Too many turnovers. Too many bad decisions. At about the 15 minute mark, I thought 'just get it to three by halftime'. But a nice run over the last five minutes, and a great play at the end of the half (which failed later in the game) gave the Bruins a four point cushion. At that point of the game, I called my dad and said the first five minutes of the half were of utmost importance. This has been kind of a theme of mine this season. Ever since they lost the Stanford game, I've been all over the importance of the first five minutes of the second half. Well, tonight, after the first five and half minutes of the second half, UCLA pushed a four point lead out to nine, and would make it 11 just a minute later. Kansas never returned to that four point deficit.

So many heroes tonight. Josh Shipp's three pointers, including the three at the end of the first half. He finished with 9 points, 5 assists, and 6 boards. Darren Collison handled the Kansas pressure for the most part and tossed in 14 points. Don't look at the assist to turnover ratio. It's meaningless tonight. The defense of Aboya, Mata, and LRMAM, once again forcing a ton of misses on "easy" shots. Russel Westbrook, 2-2 on a dunk and a layup. Instant offense. And I'll say it right now, I hope Collison doesn't leave, but if he does, I could see Russel making the same type of transition that Collison has made in Jordan Farmar's absence.

But the hero, UCLA's best player, was UCLA's best player, Arron Afflalo. What. A. Game. He poured in 24 points. 10-15 from the field, most of those in the second half (he started off poorly). 3-7 from beyond the arc. And he showed the country once again that you should never feel comfortable in the final second of the shot clock. He nailed one. Collison nailed one. They were back breakers for Kansas. There's just something about giving up those types of shots late. You think you're about to get the ball back. You think you have a chance to cut a six point deficit to three or four, and all of the sudden your down by nine. This kid is a winner, and the only bad news from tonight is that he probably cemented his status as an NBA first rounder.

Ben Howland. Talk about a class act, and a hell of a game coach. He stayed with the game plan, and knew his players could execute. And you had to love the respect he showed former UCLA PBP announcer Dick Enberg. And I will give credit to $elfish for his strategy with about 3 minutes left. Kansas had not committed many fouls, and they knew they would need to probably put UCLA on the line at the end. But he didn't wait until a minute remained to foul on purpose. He got his team to really start ball hawking with about three minutes left. Go for the foul, and if you foul, who cares? It was a good strategy and it led to a couple of turnovers.

But despite the turnovers, despite some poor decision making, UCLA is heading to it's second straight final four. Ben Howland has returned this team to the top of college basketball's elite. And these kids, who have worked so hard all year, are headed back to college basketball's biggest stage. Congratulations, Bruins.

Thursday, March 22, 2007

Pitt 55; UCLA 64 - Bruins Dance Into the Elite 8

Not quite so much drama as the last time the Bruins were the Sweet 16, but a win is a win, and the Bruins are still playing. They'll face Kansas on Saturday.

In a bit of a change of pace, UCLA won this game at the free throw line. That's right, I said they *won* it at the line, making 23 of their 26 free throws. And quite frankly, if you watched the game, you shouldn't have been surprised. Why? Look at the free throw distribution. Of their 26 free throws, 22 were shot by Arron Afflalo (10/10), Darren Collison (6/6), and Josh Shipp (5/6). If those three had shot 86% of UCLA's free throws all season, they wouldn't have been at the bottom of the Pac 10.

The defense was stifling yet again. The press will write about how UCLA was lucky that Pitt missed so many easy shots. My response: What easy shots? Not only did the Bruins play their typical ball hawking defense on the perimeter, but they brought quick double teams on Aaron Gray (who had all of one assist to show for his great passing out of double teams), and they routinely made life miserable for Pitt in the paint. Lorenzo Mata may only be somewhere between 6'8" and 6'10", but the guy probably has the strongest lower body in the country. You simply don't back him down. Other than the misadventures of Alfred Aboya and Ryan Wright (note to Dick Enberg: They aren't the same guy - Wright wears a head band), the Bruin defense was very stingy inside.

Unsung hero of the game? He was 2-2 with five points, no assists, no rebounds, no steals. But Michael Roll knocked down both of his open shots. With the Bruins leading by five, and under a minute to play, Darren Collison drove the lane, kicked it out to Roll, and his two point jumper made it a three possession game, essentially icing the victory. He didn't force it. He didn't try to do things he couldn't do in the first half. He waited for the game to come to him, and hit a huge shot.

Arron Afflalo shot the ball poorly, but did his damage at the free throw line and finished with 17 points. Josh Shipp shot it a little better, hit a couple of big threes, and finished with 16 of his. And Darren Collison didn't put up great numbers across the board, but he still finished with 12 points on 3-5 shooting, though I would like to see a little better assist/turnover ratio (4/3 may not cut it against Kansas).

Again, I don't know a ton about the Jayhawks, other than I hate their coach, and I don't think he's all that good. From what I saw tonight, they look long and athletic. No huge force on the inside, but they may create matchup problems in the backcourt. I like the fact that Collison has the experience edge over Sherron Collins. That could be a difference maker. And the best news of all, there won't be any other games on at the same time, so I'll actually get to see the whole game in HD.

Final notes: It's hard not to like Aaron Gray. Dude looks like the Michelin Man when he comes out the game, bouncing from side to side with a dumb guy grin on his face. Good luck to him in the NBA. Also, Satan lost tonight. Sure, it was against OhowIhateOhioState, but Satan is dead nonetheless. Bruce Pearl, quite possibly the biggest piece of shit in college basketball, is done, and that makes me happy.

Texas A&M Got Screwed....Kinda

Background: 3.1 seconds on the clock as the ball went out of bounds, with A&M down by one. But the refs had to take some time off. They took 1.1 seconds off.

What you'll hear in defense of the refs: The ball was touched by Memphis, then bounced in bounds before landing out of bounds. That probably was at least one second, so the refs got it right. But....

Here's why they still got it wrong: If you watch the replay in real time, the ref under the basket at which Memphis was shooting blew his whistle as soon as the ball hit the floor. The clock should have been dead right at that point. I do not believe the refs are allowed to change the time left on the clock when the whistle blows. They can review it on made baskets and such, or they can put time on the clock if the whistle comes late, but they are not allowed to add "in play" time when the whistle is blown early.

The refs screwed that one up. Maybe it wouldn't have mattered, but trying telling Texas A&M that they didn't need an extra eight or nine tenths of a second.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

UCLA v. Pitt

There's been a lot of silence from me leading up to this game. That's due to a couple of things. Between traveling home for work, going to client sites, and general business, I haven't had a ton of time.

But mostly, I don't really know what to say. I haven't seen Pitt play all year. Between watching a lot of Big Ten and Pac Ten games, I don't have a lot of time for or interest in Big East basketball. I know they have a talented big man in Aaron Gray. For much better insight than I can provide, visit these guys. They do a lot better job of previewing these things. I can only comment on what I've seen, and like I said, I haven't seen Pitt.

I'll try and have more on Friday. Of course, I'm destined to either watch this game on a computer scree (again), or without sound. Ohio State plays at the same time, and this is Big Ten country. That means no Bruins on local TV. No Bruins in High Def. Sometimes I really hate living in Chicago.

InDemand Matches DirecTV...

...Or at least they did for a minute. But it looks like MLB is still intent on giving fans the finger.

Didn't want it to end like this, but there's a good chance that this is going to be my second to last baseball post for a long, long time. I've decided I'm not going to DirecTV. And unless I change my mind, or Comcast goes the Cox route and offers me MLBTV for free, it's looking like Cubs and White Sox only, which is to say, I won't be watching much baseball this year. If, when all is said and done, MLB insists on screwing over its most loyal fans, I'll probably do one more post about it, and that will be it.

On the plus side, I may actually start getting some sleep when the Angels are on the West Coast.

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Listen to this song

Then listen to it again. And when you're done, listen to it one more time. If by then, you aren't hooked, you have no soul. Either that, or your taste in music just sucks.



That's Viva Voce, and they opened for the Shins on the recent tour. I missed most of their opening set, because unless I know a lot about the band, I hate seeing opening acts at big shows. 50% of the audience isn't there, and of those who are, 90% of them aren't paying attention. It makes for a shitty atmosphere. But it was my mistake this time (note: I also screwed up by missing most of the High Dials set the first time I saw them when they opened for the Brian Jonestown Massacre). But this song is brilliant. And the video is good too.

And just in case you thought those were actors, and that Anita can't really shred like than on actual guitar, here's a live version:


Hat tip to the Uncanny Canuck over at Song of the Day.

Monday, March 19, 2007

Excuse the light posting

I'm in L.A. at the moment, and will be traveling back to Chicago tomorrow. Between travel, golf, In-N-Out, Mexican food, training, and more travel, I haven't had a whole lot of time to write.

But dang, those DirecTV screens on JetBlue are really, really nice.

Saturday, March 17, 2007

Survive and Advance - First Impressions

It wasn't pretty, but in one fell swoop, the Bruins have moved on, and eliminated probably the most despicable human being in college basketball.

Darren Collison was the show tonight, and on an evening where he didn't get a lot of help, they really needed him to step up. Congrats to DC and the rest of the Bruins.

And for the record, Kelvin Sampson is the dictionary definition of a piece of shit. He's a scumbag, plain and simple, and the fact that Indiana hired him reflects very poorly on that institution. There's a colloquialism that says "I wouldn't piss on him if he were on fire", and for me, Kelvin Samscum is the person for whom that was written. Pure and simple, he's a grade A shitbag.

Illinois - It's Finally Over

Disappointing, to be sure. No offense over the final eight minutes. Horrible free throw shooting. Poor decision making. After 32 minutes of excellent basketball, the Illini played a pathetic final 8, and allowed Virginia Tech to erase a 13 point lead, and win by two, 54-52.

0. That's how many points the Illini scored over the final 4:20. No field goals. No free throws. No nothing. With roughly eight minutes to go, and trailing by double digits, Va Tech went to a full court press. The Illini actually handled it pretty well, but once they got the ball into the front court, they played they all had brain slugs attached to their heads, making poor decision after poor decision, bad pass after bad pass, turnover after turnover. It was painful to watch, but Illini basketball has been painful to watch most of the season.

So that's it. Numerous injuries, two DUIs, one major car accident, and 23 wins, all finally, mercifully, at an end. This was, without a doubt, the toughest season to live through since 1998-1999. The difference then was that everyone knew the Illini were going to be awful, and Frank Williams, Brian Cook, and Marcus Griffin were all set to join the team the next season.

Where do the Illini go from here? They have to hope the Demetri McCamey and Quinton Watkins (assuming he officially commits), are the real deal and can contribute to the offense next season. Sean Pruitt will be the main scoring threat, but the question has got to be 'where will the help come from'? They lose both Rich McBride and Warren Carter, who were their only reliable scorers, and I'm using a loose definition of reliable. Can Brian Carlwell recover and provide support in the post? Can Trent Meacham be a more reliable shooter? Will Jamar Smith even return to the team? And after a season of illness and injury, what can Richard Semrau bring to the team? And if healthy, will Brian Randle finally live up to the potential that so many see in him?

The upside is probably another mid to low seed in the NCAA tournament. I would imagine that they'll be projected as an NIT team next year, probably seventh in the conference. That's just a hunch based on little to no analysis, so take that with a gigantic grain of salt. There are a lot of question marks. But the off-season is a time for healing, and the Illini have a lot of healing to do.

Friday, March 16, 2007

One Down, Five To Go

UCLA

It wasn't the 50 point win I was hoping for, but I'll settle for 28.

Another slow start. UCLA led by only one with eight minutes remaining in the first half. But Michael Roll, slumping lately, hit two consecutive three pointers that set off a 22-5 run to end the first half, and the game was essentially over at that point.

Apparently Darren Collison is feeling OK. His numbers were good, but not eye-popping. 14 points, 8 assists, 3 steals, 3 turnovers. But the number that should catch your eye, especially in a 28 point blowout, is 32, as in minutes. I've gotta think the ankle felt fine if Ben Howland was willing to leave him in that long. Josh Shipp's thumb appears to be OK as well. He finished with 12 points on 5-10 shooting (2-4 from long range). But if UCLA is going to make a deep run, their best player needs to be their best player, and last night Arron Afflalo was exactly that, finishing with 22 points in 32 minutes, to go along with 8 rebounds (though I'd like to see him cut down on the 3 turnovers). He struggled early, but found his stroke as the game winning, finishing 8-15 from the field, and 3-5 from beyond the arc.

In an apparent homage to Cade McNown, Lorenzo Mata recovered from a bit of an upset stomach (not that you would have known it if all you had was the TV broadcast), puking up his lunch before returning to the court and throwing down a couple of dunks on his way to 6 points and 7 rebounds.

Indiana awaits, after having taken care of Gonzaga, which means no rematch of last year's regional semi-final. I've watched Indiana a few times this year, and quite frankly, I'm not particularly impressed. DJ White is a very good player, and he's pretty polished offensively, but he's not particularly tall. I think the Bruins can cover him with one guy, at least when Mata is on the floor. Mata's strong lower body should be able to keep White from the rim. That's going to be important, because if they're forced to double team, it will leave the perimeter open for Indiana's good long range shooters. UCLA is a better team, but this is certainly a game they're capable of losing.

Illinois

Virginia Tech awaits the Illini tonight. Haven't seen them play, but they seem to have a strange habit of beating very good teams (they took out UNC twice), and losing to mediocre teams (Florida State, NC State twice, Clemson). That's great news for Illinois, because the Illini are all kinds of mediocre.

Thursday, March 15, 2007

Dear Stan,

I hear you're looking for a new head coach. Two words: Cameron Dollar.

Sincerely,
Me.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

The Picks

I'll preface this by saying that I'm kind of doing this freestyle. In other words, the picks I make here may or may not be the picks I make in any particular pool. I just kind of look for teams that jump out at me, and it could be different every time. So here we go (upsets in red):

First Round

Midwest Region

Florida over Jackson State
Arizona over Purdue
Butler over Old Dominion
Maryland over Davidson
Notre Dame over Winthrop
Oregon over Miami (OH)
UNLV over Georgia Tech
Wisconsin over Texas A&M
Yup. No first round upsets on this side

West Region

Kansas over Niagra (barely)
Kentucky over Villanova
Illinois over Virginia Tech (C'mon, I have to)
Southern Illinois over Holy Cross
Duke over VCU
Pittsburgh over Wright State
Indiana over Gonzaga
UCLA over Weber State

East Region

UNC over Eastern Kentucky
MSU over Marquette
U$C over Arkansas
Texas over NMSU
Vanderbilt over George Washington
Washington State over Oral Roberts
Texas Tech over Boston College
Georgetown over Belmont

South Region

OSU over Central Connecticut State
BYU over Xavier
Tennessee over Long Beach State
Virginia over Albany
Stanford over Louiville
Texas A&M over Penn
Nevada over Creighton
Memphis over North Texas

Second Round


Midwest Region

Florida over Arizona
Maryland over Butler
Oregon over UND
UNLV over Wisconsin

West Region

Kansas over Kentucky
Illinois over SIU
Duke over Pitt
UCLA over Indiana

East Region

UNC over MSU
U$C over Texas
WSU over Vandy
Georgetown over Texas Tech

South Region

OSU over BYU
Tennessee over Virginia
Texas A&M over Stanford
Memphis over Nevada

Sweet Sixteen

Midwest Region

Florida over Maryland
Oregon over UNLV

West Region

Kansas over Illinois (that hurts)
UCLA over Duke

East Region

UNC over U$C
Georgetown over Wazzu

South Region

OSU over Tennessee
Texas A&M over Memphis

Elite Eight

Midwest Region

Florida over Oregon - Florida's size will be too much

West Region

UCLA over Kansas - A season of playing in a crappy conference, plus crappy coaching, catches up with Kansas

East Region

Georgetown over UNC - I haven't seen much of Georgetown, but I'm not all that impressed with UNC

South

Texas A&M over OSU - Acie Law IV's experience is too much for the Buckeye freshman

Final Four

UCLA over Florida in a rematch of last year's final
Georgetown over Texas A&M

Championship

UCLA over Georgetown.

Talk about a run. If this were to hold, UCLA would have knocked off Indiana, Duke, Kansas, Florida, and Georgetown. Other than Florida, that's a lot of tradition. But something just seems right about UCLA riding it's basketball team to it's 100th overall national championship. Besides, I overrate the teams I root for all the time, so it's hard to pick against them when they're actually good.

DirecTV Update

For those of you who haven't been following, MLB agreed to a deal with DirecTV that would make the Extra Innings package non-exclusive. In other words, cable companies still have a chance to carry the package. However, a pre-requisite to offering the package is an agreement to carry the baseball channel (when it launches) on the basic tier. As has been noted by Maury Brown, this is a poison pill. It's a provision that baseball knows no cable companies are going to go for, so it's still a de facto exclusive deal.

Personally, I may have been 50/50 about switching to DirecTV a few weeks ago. Now I'd say there's probably no more than a 10% chance I'll make the switch. And with MLB using this as an opportunity to jack up the cost of MLBTV, chances are I'm not getting that either. So it's looking more and more like I'll be a casual baseball fan this season at best. That means about 99% less baseball content here, and during baseball season, that means about 99% less content period.

There may be a last ditch effort to save the package for cable companies, though. Senator Kerry has scheduled a hearing for March 27th:
"The senator all along has wanted to know more about this, so he's going to be asking a number of questions," said Vincent Morris, Kerry's spokesperson. "We're going to be looking to hear from all interested parties: baseball, satellite carriers, probably the cable operators, possibly ordinary fans. We're still putting it all together."

Well, Senator, I've got some vacation time available and some frequent flyer miles saved up. I could probably clear some time on the 27th. The email address is up in the right corner. I'll be waiting.

Monday, March 12, 2007

NCAA Tournament - First Impressions

UCLA

The Bruins ought to send the committee some flowers and chocolate. They lost their number one seed, but got the next best (maybe better) thing with a 2 seed in the West. They'll play in Sacramento, then (God willing) San Jose on their way to another final four. As thousands of others have probably mentioned at this point, this is the Ben Howland invitational bracket, as the Bruins will match up with Howland's alma mater, Weber State, in the first round, then face a potential regional semi-final against Pitt. Too bad NAU couldn't find its way into this year's field.

Illinois

The other side of the bracket is the Bruce Weber invitational. Illinois, if it can get past Virginia Tech (it's the most obvious 12-5 upset on the board in my opinion), faces a potential second round matchup with Weber's old school, Southern Illinois. Get past them, and former Illinois coach Bill Self looms on the horizon. That is, of course, assuming that Self can get past the first and second rounds, a tall order given his recent tournament performances.

Mid-Majors


Speaking of Illinois, there has been a lot of howling about Illinois not deserving its place in the field, despite a superior tournament resume compared to #9 seed Purdue, who finished with a worse record, with a worse strength of schedule, and finished 15 spots behind Illinois in the final RPI. Their lone argument over Illinois was win head to head at Mackey Arena.

But here's a little thought experiment. Over the last 20 years or so (give or take), the argument that mid-majors are treated unfairly at the expense of the power conferences has grown. This year, you're likely to hear that Drexel should have been in the field over Arkansas or Illinois, despite finishing fourth in their conference. Already there are howls that UNLV and Nevada were unfairly seeded. How could the country's #10 team be a 7 seed?

Let's assume this argument has merit. Wouldn't the likely result be a slew of very good, yet underrated, mid major teams playing in the NIT? And wouldn't they be playing against a bunch of overrated and mediocre power conference teams in the NIT? And if we accept those premises, then would you expect the mid-majors to be relatively successful in the NIT? I'm not talking about dominant, I'm talking about holding their own.

You know how many mid-major teams have won the NIT in the last 20 years? 1. Uno. Note that I'm considering Conference USA to be something other than a mid-major, as Memphis won the championship before all of the good teams left for the Big East. Now, this is somewhat tempered by the fact that most early round games are played at the home courts of power conference teams. On the flip side, how much home court advantage is there in the loser tournament at power conference schools?

So Drexel, go out and show you're the best of the losers, and maybe in the future you and your mid-major brethren will start to get some respect.

The Walkmen w/ the Broken West @ Schubas - 3/11/07

Fanboy alert.

There are bands who get on stage and lack the ability to re-create the magic of the recording studio. There are bands who get on stage and sound exactly like they do on their records, which is good, but not exactly what you want from the live experience. There are bands who, on stage, transcend what they're able to do on a record.

Then there are the Walkmen. From the opening note to the final farewell, it's pure, nonstop energy. Their albums are fantastic, but they were made for the stage. It's not so much a collection of instruments as it a cacophony of sound. It so loud, and so dense that it just hits you like a blast of wind. But amazingly, you're still able to pick out every distinctive sound present in their studio tracks. I saw these guys at Pitchfork last summer. A big open space isn't what they're best suited to. But get them in a tiny room packed with 160 people, like Schuba's, and they're really in their element.

First things first, the Broken West led the night off with a half hour of music from their new LP "I Can't Go On, I'll Go On." I'd listened to it about 8-10 times in the last week, and I was looking forward to their set. Pretty straightforward powery-pop type stuff. Pretty accessible and easy to listen to. They played (if I remember correctly):
  • Down in the Valley (see below)
  • So it Goes
  • On the Bubble
  • Shiftee
  • Big City
  • Slow
  • Brass Ring
It was a solid half hour of music.

Then the Walkmen came out, and I'm gonna be honest, they played a bunch of stuff I haven't heard before. And quite frankly, that would usually piss me off, but the way the night flowed, it didn't really bother me. It just cranked up the anticipation for the next song. In 2006, they released a song for song remake of Harry Nilsson's "Pussy Cats", so I'm guessing they played some stuff off of that. And let's get the negatives out of the way early: no We've Been Had; no Little House of Savages; no Emma, Get Me a Lemon. That did kind of suck, I'm not gonna lie. But what they did play was pretty amazing. Among the songs in the setlistsetlist:
  • Louisiana (assisted on horns by one of the guys from the Broken West, and some other guy) (see below)
  • All Hands and the Cook
  • Another One Goes By (still not as good as the Mazarin version)
  • They may have played Don't Get Me Down (Come on Over Here), but my memory is a little fuzzy
  • Wake Up
  • Everyone Who Pretended to Like Me is Gone
  • The Rat
  • They're Winning
  • Blizzard of '96
  • They also may have played the North Pole
Louisiana was clearly the highlight...until they played Wake Up, which was off the charts. And just when you think they couldn't get any better, they dusted off The Rat, which, well, I'll be honest. I have never stood through a better four minutes of live music than the version of the Rat that they played tonight. It's simply a song that was meant to be played live, to a small audience, with an incredibly loud mix. If I could bottle that four minutes...

On the downside, they skipped the tracks mentioned above, and they only played for about an hour. In their defense, it was 11:00 on a Sunday night, and it was their second show of the evening, and sitting through an hour, you'd wonder how they had the energy to go through that twice in one night.

The moral of the story is that if you get a chance to see a band this polished and this impressive in such a small venue, you need to do it. You won't be disappointed. Sample tracks below.









And I know they didn't play it, but I still love this song:

Friday, March 09, 2007

Illinois 58; Indiana 54

First overtime game all year in the Big 10, and fittingly there were all of 12 points scored, many at the free throw line. It wasn't pretty (no Illinois game this year has been), but that win should get the Illini into the tournament. I will be surprised, but not shocked, if the Illini are left out.

One thing about watching Illinois: It's sad to see a team shoot 56% from the line in a game that goes to OT and thing "Gee, I wish UCLA could be that good from the free throw line".

I'll be the one guy who doesn't rip on Rich McBride. They focused on him all night, he could never really get open (though he missed the one open three that he had), but he didn't force up 30 footers, and a couple of times he drove and passed off for shots that either led to baskets or fouls.

And Brian Randle probably wishes he hadn't spent the off-season kicking all those kittens and puppies that belong to Big 10 refs.

The Afternoon After

In the cold dark following the cold light of what was this morning, I'm finally beginning to come to terms with last night's debacle against UC Berkeley. There's still no way to sugar coat it. It was a team failure at every level, including leadership. I guess you could give them credit for not giving up after being down by 16 in the first half, but when you're trying to find a positive for one of the best teams in the country, that's nearly the definition of damning with faint praise.

On the other hand, I'm the same guy that said just a few days ago that I wouldn't mind seeing them lose early in the PTT just so that they could get some rest. Still, even that's a faint silver lining in a very dark cloud. And I'm loathe to fall for the "loss is a wake up call" line of reasoning. Top teams shouldn't need a wake up call.

That said, the national media still believes in the Bruins, and it's hardly the time to give up on them. Most of the big names still believe that UCLA will be a number one seed, or at the very least, the #2 seed in the West (which, quite frankly would be much better than being the #1 seed anywhere else). The seed position doesn't bother me. Regardless of where you're seeded, you still need to run the gantlet to win the whole thing. But staying in the West would be a very nice reward for an excellent season, despite what we've seen in the last week.

I still can't seem to find an explanation for the way Arron Afflalo played yesterday. Like I said, I don't know if he was sick, or nursing an injury, or if there was some family issue that had him worried, because he certainly didn't play like he's played at any other point in his three year career. I'm not trying to bag on the guy, because I'm sure no one feels worse about it than he does, but geez, what an awful performance. And still, just one made free throw from any of the many culprits could have nullified all of that.

The only thing left is to continue to believe in this team. I honestly can't tell you whether they're the same team that left Pac 10 teams in its wake for the first 17 games of the conference season, or if they're the team we saw the last two times they took the floor. But I sure hope they're the former. What I'd like to see next week is the absolute destruction of whatever team the committee decides to feed to the Bruins. Take no prisoners, step on the gas, and do not stop. That's how they can show us that they're back and ready to make a run.

Thursday, March 08, 2007

So long #1 Seed, and So Long West Coast Bracket - Bruins Exposed.

Good time to stop caring, Bruins. So much for being mature.

I don't think there's any other way to say it, but I think the Bruins played themselves out of the National Championship picture tonight. They'll be a two seed, at best. But more importantly, they'll be shipped somewhere out east. They'll be shipped somewhere that's not Sacramento and San Jose, and because of that, I do not think they will reach the regional final.

Tonight's performance was simply embarrassing, and it can be summed up in a couple of numbers:

14 - That's how many free throws they missed. They finished 15/29 from the line. If they had made just one more, they would have won. One shot, unguarded, 15 feet from the hoop. The worst offenders? LRMAM, who was downright pathetic at the stripe, and Mr. Player of the Year himself, who was 1/4.

1 - That's how many baskets they got from Player of the Year, Arron Afflalo. Just one basket, and it didn't even come until overtime.

29 - Not only did Afflalo fail to show up on offense, but he was absolutely destroyed on the other end of the floor. Ayinde Ubaka, who was completely non-existent in the first two matchups with Berkeley, scored 29 points, and was the difference in the game.

In their last two games, they've been beaten by inferior teams in almost every facet of the game, and those weren't teams that play gimmicky basketball. The Bruins simply haven't shown up to play. I'm pretty unconvinced that they'll be able to find it when they need it.

Ultimately, unless he was sick or injured, or unless there's some underlying issue that hasn't made its way to the press, this loss sits almost solely on Arron Afflalo's shoulders. He played arguably his worst game as Bruin both offensively and defensively. He's their leader, and he was completely exposed at both ends of the floor. The Bruins had the ball, tied, with over 10 seconds to play at the end, and they settled for a 25 footer. In the same situation at $C earlier in the year, he demanded the ball, and carried them to victory. Tonight, he flat out disappeared. And now, I think their chances to cut down the nets in Atlanta disappeared as well.

Concert Prep

I'm going to Schuba's (roughly 160 person occupancy) on Sunday night to see the Walkmen with the Broken West. Here's a taste of what I've been listening to in preparation.




"Another One Goes By" is actually a Mazarin track covered by the Walkmen on their most recent album "A Hundred Miles Off". The version presented here is the Mazarin version, even though it's says it's the Walkmen version (but that's OK, because the Mazarin version is better).

And the Broken West stuff is really good too. Really looking forward to seeing them.

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

More on HGHMJ - Updated

I was reading through the comments on this diary over the Rev's site, and it brought up a few more thoughts:

acuda27: If Matthews is CUT then what?

First answer: I open one of those bottles of Chimay that I've been saving for a special occasion.

Seriously, and let me be clear about this, I would prefer to see HGHMJ released before the start of the season, even if it means spending Arte's $50MM while HGHMJ goes somewhere else for the league minimum. I don't think he's very good, and I think there's a good chance his one good season was the result of certain enhancements. I also don't think the distraction is good for the team.

I would rather start the season with Reggie Willits and his 11 walks in 56 career plate appearances in center.

Let's compare the two. Matthews brings more power to the table (in terms of slugging - I'm including doubles as part of the power package), as well as a better batting average. It's likely that one of those was the result of certain pharmaceuticals, while the other is notoriously unreliable, especially when the average that landed him this contract was 50 points higher than his career average, and done in a hitters park. Some will argue he brings gold glove caliber defense. Some are stupid. For "gold glove caliber" defense, look no further than Steve Finley.

Willits, aside from being better than HGHMJ defensively, is not going to hit home runs. But he's also not going to make a ton of outs, he's going to get on base a lot. He's not going to strike out a lot. And he's got the potential to steal a lot of bases.

To put it bluntly, the Los Angeles Angels would be a better team, regardless of the money involved, if Reggie Willits was starting in center field than they would be with HGHMJ starting in center field.

The funny thing is, I've never been a big anti-steroid guy. I've never hated Barry Bonds like a lot of other people. And my feeling has always been that if a guy got a substance legally, and it wasn't against the rules of baseball, it wasn't cheating. I'd actually like to see Bonds break the HR record just so that someone may finally call out Hank Aaron and the rest of the greenie poppers of his ERA when the inevitable whining about Bonds begins.

But I really don't care for Matthews. I hated the deal from the moment it was announced. I hate it even more now that last year looks chemically enhanced on top of being incredibly fluky and done in a hitters park. I think it was probably the worst major league deal of the off-season.

Ever since the rumors of the DirecTV deal started going around, I've been of half a mind to give up baseball for good, and half a mind to go out and get DirecTV right away. As a result of this deal, I'd say I'm up to 80-20 against getting DirecTV, at least until the NHL announces a similar deal and I'm forced to get it to watch Anze and Jack Motherfucking Johnson next season.

Bottom line, if he's on the opening day roster, I'm going to have a tough time rooting for the Angels this season. I can't explain it, but that's my gut feeling right now.

UPDATE - Anonymous writes in the comments: "I guess I don't understand why you are rooting for Bonds to break the record (he did not obtain steroids legally) and yet you will not root for the Angels because of a bad signing."

First, I think you're comparing apples and oranges here. I'm not rooting for Bonds because I like Bonds (and I think there's actually an argument that he didn't obtain steroids illegally, but that's another issue entirely). As I said, I just sort of hope he does it because I think the obvious result will be the howls of players from Aaron's day, pretty much all of whom were popping amphetamines like candy at the time. The hypocrites all deserve each other.

Second, I haven't said I won't root for the Angels (though I'll arguably care a lot less). But I do hate the contract, and have hated it since day one. It's another moronic move from a team that just rid itself of the Steve Finley (into Edgardo Alphonso) contract. And mind you, it's not that I'm upset that they overpaid, it's that I'm upset that they paid period. It's frustrating to watch a team put out a roster that is worse than the roster they could have put on the field even if they'd done nothing in the off-season (outside of the bullpen moves). They signed a guy who already wasn't very good, and on top of that, it's turning out that he's also not very likable (with Bonds, I could at least respect the fact that he didn't care that he wasn't likable). I just find the whole thing very frustrating, and ultimately, at this point of the spring, it makes me care a lot less about the Angels.

Monday, March 05, 2007

Conference Tournaments

First of all, let me just say that I'm not really a big fan of conference tournaments in college basketball. I think the concept is kind of stupid, and really doesn't prove anything, especially considering that almost all conferences allow all of their teams to reach to the tournament. It's even more meaningless in the Pac 10, where everyone plays everyone else twice, and the conference can crown a true champion in the regular season.

In small conferences, where they're only likely to send one team to the dance, it's not unheard of for one team to bust their asses all year to win the conference outright, only to lose in the conference tourney and be shut out of the NCAA tournament. I'm not going to look for examples right now because I'm lazy, but it's not a difficult concept to grasp. For large conferences, multiple teams are going to get invited, usually regardless of the outcome of the tourney (hell, the Big 10 conference tourney ends so late that they field really has to be set before the final game anyway). Best case scenario, there are no shake ups. Worst case scenario, you get an NIT bound team who goes on a run, wins the tourney, and sends another, more deserving, team home.

That's not to say conference tourneys aren't exciting. Some of the most exciting basketball I've ever seen was in 1999, when the last place Illini made an improbable run to the Big 10 championship game before losing to eventual Final Four team Michigan State. In that run, Corey Bradford was unconscious, almost singlehandedly willing the Illini to the championship game. It also featured probably the greatest play I've ever seen. Leading Ohio State in the final minute of the semi-final game, Damir Krupalija flew to the baseline to block a three point attempt (probably by Scoonie Penn, but I was probably drunk at the time, so I can't remember). Not only did he block the shot, but he controlled it, and while trying to call timeout as he was falling out of bounds, he was fouled. So what was once an open three turned into free throws for the Illini. Ohio State would later join Michigan State in the final four that year.

Anyway, my problems with conference tournaments aside, here's how I see them falling out in the Pac 10 and Big 10 this season.

Pac 10

Wednesday
Cal over OSU
Washington over ASU

Thursday
UCLA over Cal
Stanford over U$C
Washington State over Washington
Arizona over Oregon

Friday
UCLA over Arizona (again)
Stanford over Washington State

Saturday
UCLA over Stanford

I'd be absolutely fine with UCLA losing to Arizona or Oregon in that second round game. I think they're still a lock for the number one seed in the West, almost regardless of what happens in the tourney, but I'm pretty sure one win gets it done. And they could probably use the rest. Then again, last year they won the tourney and the extra games didn't seem to bother them.

I also wouldn't be surprised to Washington upset Wazzu, now that they apparently care about defense. I don't buy the "tough to beat a team three times" canard. If a team was that tough to beat, they wouldn't have lost the first two times.

Really, this conference has been so tough this year that I could see any of the top seven teams winning it. Nothing would surprise me outside of Cal, OSU, or ASU making a run.

Big 10

Thursday
Michigan over Minnesota
MSU over Northwestern
Illinois over Penn State

Friday
OSU over Michigan
Purdue over Iowa
MSU over Wisconsin
Illinois over Indiana

Saturday
OSU over Purdue
MSU over Illinois

Sunday
OSU over MSU

If it shakes out that way, the question is who goes to the NCAA tournament. OSU and Wisconsin are locks. Indiana is probably in regardless of what happens. A trip to the final would get the job done for MSU. But would that be it? I would assume that two more wins would be enough for Illinois, but if Purdue advances as far, would the committee keep them out? Illinois would have two more wins, and they currently sit 10 spots above Purdue in the RPI. Still, something tells me that short of a run to the finals, Illinois is going to get left out. I know it's counter to what I've said all along, but call it a gut feeling. I said they needed to win one of their last two road games (which they did at Penn State), and one game in the tournament. But the sixth seed means that one win isn't very impressive. They probably need two, and it would really help if Iowa beat Purdue in the quarterfinals. Otherwise, the committee would have to take six Big 10 teams, and I can't see that happening.

Saturday, March 03, 2007

UCLA 51; Washinton 61 - Also, Illinois lost

UCLA

I may get around to doing a full post on this game, but right now I'm still trying to find the foul on LRMAM against Brockman in the final minute. If anyone can find it, let me know.

Actualy, I missed most of this one. Forest Park, IL held its St. Patrick's Day/Casimir Pulaski day parade today (yes, they hold parades when it's 28 degrees outside). I only caught bits and pieces.

First instincts: Meaningless game for the Bruins. Senior day for the Huskies. Not sure if they rushed the floor, but hey, good luck in the NIT.

Illinois

Between missing free throws, and Rich McBride jacking up 30 footers, this was no surprise. Winning gave the Illini a bid. Losing means they need at least one, if not two, conference tourney wins to be safe, and even then I have a feeling the committee is going to screw them.

As for the ILL-DUI chant, I'd expect nothing less from Sex Offender University. Iowa sucks, and their fans are a bunch of cocksuckers. Sorry, but I call 'em like I see 'em.

Friday, March 02, 2007

A Couple of Points About Last Night's UCLA Game

I didn't mention these in yesterday's post, but here's a couple of adenda:

  1. As stifling as both defenses were, there were surprisingly few fouls. Neither team was in the bonus in the second half until the final few minutes when Wazzu had to foul on purpose just to put UCLA into the bonus. And it wasn't as if there were a ton of plays that made you think 'boy, I can't believe they didn't call a foul right there.' I've watched a lot of Big 10 basketball, so I've seen a lot of games where refs let guys get away with everything. Last night wasn't one of those games. It was good, hard, aggressive, in-your-face defense, and neither team needed to clutch and grab to play it well.
  2. Good column today from Pat Forde of ESPN, calling UCLA the "most mature team in the nation." It's hard to argue with that. These guys don't just play one style and hope they do it well enough to win. They're driven, and they find ways to win when they have to, with a couple of exceptions. The funny thing is, the "most mature team in the nation" has absolutely no seniors. Not even a walk on. I'd be surprised if everyone came back, but damn, they'll be incredible next year if everyone comes back.

Thursday, March 01, 2007

UCLA 53; Washington State 45 -- Bruins Clinch Second Straight Outright Pac 10 Championship

In 1994, the New York Rangers won the Stanley Cup. I watched every game of their seven game series with New Jersey in the Wales Conference Finals, and every game of their seven game series against Vancouver in the Stanley Cup Finals. That Rangers team had a knack for absolutely blowing their opponents doors off in the first 10 minutes of the game. Didn't matter who they played, they dominated from the opening face off. If you could weather that storm and hang in, you could beat them, but a lot of teams just wilted from the beginning, and that's why the Rangers were the best team in the regular season, and the best team in the playoffs.

This UCLA team has a similar trait. They come out and simply dominate teams in the first five minutes of the second half. They did it against Arizona a couple of weeks ago. They did it to Berkeley last week. They did it to Stanford on Saturday. And they did it again tonight. I said it before, and I'll say it again: UCLA lost to Stanford last month at Maples because they didn't compete in the first five minutes of the second half, and by the time they got it together, Stanford was rolling. They learned their lesson. Since then, they've dominated that five minute stretch, and it's been the key factor in their conference win streak.

Tonight, after trailing by one at the half, the Bruins came out and scored the first nine points of the second half, and they did so convincingly, on two layups, a dunk, and three pointer. The built an eight point lead that they would never relinquish. And they didn't just do it with offense. Their defense has an extra gear in the second half, and they found it tonight, ultimately holding the Cougars to 37.5% shooting. Derek Low especially had an off night. He is a difference maker, and tonight he simply couldn't find his range.

Aaron Afflalo led the way on the scoresheet with 14 points on 5-11 shooting. Darren Collison, in a bit of a shooting slump (for him) over the last few games added seven to go along with eight assists, many coming on pinpoint passes into the post. He's a big reason that Alfred Aboya chimed in with eight points of 4-5 shooting. Aboya gives me the impression that he's going to absolutely bust out next year. Don't ask my why. He's shown flashes of greatness this year, and it's just a matter of him putting it all together. If he takes that step, their front line next year is going to be absolutely sick with LRMAM, Aboya, Mata, and Love. That's assuming they get nothing from Keefe and Wright (and I think those two will contribute). That frontcourt will be dominant.

Give a ton of credit to Washington State. They have an excellent team, and for a defensive powerhouse, they don't play a boring style. Their low points-against isn't built on a boring zone and 35 second possessions on both ends. They play hard and really get after it. I think they're going to do some damage in the tournament, and until UCLA took them out of it, they really had a great crowd tonight. And yes, that paragraph was a lot easier to type considering the outcome.

Barring some catastrophic injury (which the selection committee will take into account), UCLA probably locked up a #1 seed tonight, and they're probably going to stay out west for the second year in a row. Now it's off to Seattle to finish the season and get ready for the Pac 10 tournament. Congratulations to the Bruins on their second straight outright conference championship.

Day Two of Not Caring

Honestly, I've tried, and I just can't bring myself to care about this whole Gary Matthews thing. Quite honestly, I'm much more concerned about UCLA vs. Wazzu, and Anze Kopitar missing the game against the Ducks tonight, because really, if he's not playing, what point is there in watching?

Why don't I care? Let's break it down.

Assume he's innocent:
  1. Last year, though a fluke, wasn't chemically enhanced;
  2. There's a chance he could work out OK this year, maybe next;
  3. It's still an awful contract, and it will be brutal in two years.
Assume he's guilty:
  1. Last year was a fluke AND chemically enhanced;
  2. There's a smaller chance he could work out OK this year;
  3. It goes from being an awful contract to a REALLY awful contract that's already brutal.
Honestly, I don't see much difference between guilt and innocence at this point. Either way, the deal sucks, and this is a distraction. The bright side, of course, is that he could get suspended for a while. The really bright side would be a situation in which the Angels could void his contract, but I don't see that happening.

Basically, I think this was such a bad deal at the time that I don't think anything could make it much worse. It's about as bad as it gets. I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong, but I have such little affection for Matthews to begin with that this whole situation doesn't make me like the move any less.

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Garbage In, Garbage Out

Big ticket centerfielder Gary Matthews Jr. (affectionately known as Garbarge Matthews Jr. to Angels fans) has been linked to a ring of steroid distributors who operated an online distribution business. The owners of Applied Pharmacy Series have been indicted in Buffalo.

So right now, that's looking like $50MM well spent.

On the bright side, this deal was pretty much as bad as it gets to begin with, so it's not as if it could have gotten much worse. I suppose the hope would lie in finding a way to void this contract and cut ties with Matthews, but I think that's pretty far fetched. Hell, I don't think the Angels can even make a case for being duped. Any judge with half a brain would look at the case and say "You signed a guy who had been released five times, and had one good season in his entire career." Even if that's not circumstantial evidence for juicing (and honestly, I don't think it's particularly good evidence), it certainly evidence that Stoneman got himself into an incredibly bad deal, steroids or not.

Fortunately, the Angels probably won't be in a lot of trouble if Matthews gets into a lot of trouble. Figgins could easily move back to center, with Izturis or Hillenbrand going to third. Quite frankly, I expect Matthews to suck this year, so replacing him with another guy who sucks probably isn't a big hit. I'm much more concerned about young Weaver at this point, but that will probably sort itself out.

Still, it's a distraction, and one that the team would likely be better without at this point.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

The News Keeps Coming

Kings

It'd deadline day in the NHL, and the Kings just made their big splash getting Johann Fransson, Jaroslav Modry, a 2008 first round pick, and 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2007. In exchange, they send the captain, Mattias Norstrom, empty headed prospect Konstantin Pushkarev, and 3rd and 4th round picks to Dallas.

I have mixed emotions about this trade. I like the return, though I have to think that Slowdry is in there solely for salary considerations. On the one hand, I hate to see Matty go. He's been the very definition of a warrior for basically the last decade in Los Angeles. Not necessarily the face of the franchise, but an incredibly solid performer who always displayed the utmost in professionalism. On the other hand, he's exactly the type of guy who deserves a legitimate chance at a Stanley Cup, and now he's going to get one alongside Phillipe Boucher. Pushkarev was someone for whom I had high hopes, but Lombardi was never a fan, and whatever magic Hextall was trying to work, well apparently he didn't think he could get it done. The best thing about Pushkarev in this deal is that he's not O'Sullivan or Tukonen.

Baseball

Rumor is getting out now that for a number of reasons, the deal between Major League Baseball and DirecTV may be slowly sliding off the table. In other words, there's a good chance that Extra Innings will still be available on cable this season.

The whole thing has essentially hinged on where the Baseball Network will be slated when it starts up in 2009. MLB wants in on the basic tier. Cable doesn't want it on the basic tier. DirecTV was willing to put it on the basic tier in exchange for exclusivity for Extra Innings. The combination of a better offer from cable, a promise to put the Baseball Network somewhere, and pressure from Congress (specifically Senator Kerry) seems to have put the whole thing on hold. Depending on who you listen to, either the deal will still get done, may not get done, or won't get done.
One source familiar with negotiations said he now believes that the Extra Innings package will remain available to all three services."I'd be surprised if the DirecTV deal goes through," he said.

...

"There will be a commitment to carry the Baseball Network (on cable)," said the industry official. "Where it will be placed, that still needs to be sorted out."

Another source with the league said he was not aware of any shift away from plans to go with an exclusive deal for DirecTV. But talks have lingered for months without an official announcement even as baseball's opening day draws near
Stay tuned.

Breaking News

UC Riverside in the top 25!

Go Highlanders.

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Saturday Roundup

It's a little late, but I was at the Blackhawks game today, so I have an excuse.

Illinois

It's amazing what a team can do when it gets away from the distractions. Penn State was the right opponent, in the right place, at the right time, and Illinois responded by playing what may have been it's best game of the season. They relentlessly attacked Penn State's zone defense, and they dominated PSU on the other end of the floor, holding the Lions to 38% shooting. But the big advantage came on the glass, as Illinois enjoyed a 33-22 rebounding advantage.

On offense, the Illini found holes all over the PSU zone, and the beneficiary was Sean Pruitt, who finished with 20 points. Warren Carter added 17 of his own, six of those coming from long range, while Brian Randle tossed in 10, rounding out a starting front line that finished the game with each in double digits. Chester Frazier, who'd been 0 for everything lately, added a couple of three pointers, which paced a low scoring effort from the back court. Rich McBride had a tough time getting good looks, and he finished with just one field goal, although he did contribute six assists.

I still think it's going to take one win to get Illinois into the NCAA Tournament. Either a win at Iowa, or one in the Big 10 tourney ought to be enough, and neither is a sure thing. They'll probably have the fourth seed in the BTT, which means they could end up turning right around and playing Iowa again. At this point of the season, nothing would make Iowa fans happier than keeping Illinois out of the dance. And the Illini better show up in Iowa City with plenty of mental toughness, because Iowa's fans are really going to let them have it.

UCLA

There are those who will argue that UCLA's loss at Maples Pavilion last month was the moment that really brought the team together. Not me. I think they've been together all season. I think that loss taught them a very valuable lesson: The most important part of the game is the first five minutes of the second half.

Time and time again the Bruins have gotten off to slow starts (and indeed, it was a much talked about issue going into that first Stanford game), only to come out in the second half and put the game away. At Stanford, the Bruins came out on fire and got up big early. After an ill advised shot at the end of the half, which led to a Stanford three pointer, the Bruins took a 12 point lead into the break. Stanford came out firing on all cylinders at the beginning of the second half, got and suddenly everything looked uphill for the Bruins. They couldn't recover, and Stanford put the Bruins away.

Cut to yesterday. UCLA didn't quite start the game like it did last month. Their lead generally hovered around two or three points for much of the first frame, and they took a three point advantage into the break. But that's when they put they lesson they learned in the first game into practice. 5:30 into the second half, UCLA had pushed a three point lead to thirteen, and pretty much held it there until the final horn.

Aaron Afflalo, in what may have been his last game at Pauley Pavilion, had a typically tremendous AA game with 20 points and six rebounds, while going 4-7 from beyond the arc. Beyond him, the Bruins were remarkably balanced offensively. Seven players (besides Afflalo) finished with five or more points, and no one else had more than 11 (LRMAM, who also added seven rebounds). Darren Collison keyed the defense with five steals, and for the second straight game, let others grab the accolades, finishing with ten points and six assists. The bench chipped in an extremely efficient 18 (Aboya - 7, Roll - 6, Westbrook - 5), on 6-9 shooting.

In another solid team effort, the Bruins forced twice as many turnovers as they committed (16-8), and they out rebounded the taller Cardinal 31-27, and in doing so, took away one of Stanford's biggest advantages.

It's been a season of solid team efforts, and that has them on the brink of their second straight conference championship, which they'll clinch with either one win in Washington, or a Wazzu loss. On the Pacific Northwest.

Friday, February 23, 2007

An Historic Evening

  • Roughly 2000 years ago, give or take, Jesus quelled the unrest of a group of wedding guests looking to get wasted by turning water into wine.
  • In 1858, in a grotto near Lourdes, France, the Blessed Virgin Mary appeared 18 times to Bernadette Soubirous, a 14 year old peasant girl. Since then thousands of people have been miraculously cured at site.
  • On February 22, 2007, Lorenzo Mata made eight of nine free throws.

UCLA once against shook off a slow start last night, especially on the defensive end (UC Berkeley made 9 of their first 12 shots), only to come out on a mission in the second half, blowing the Bears out of the water in the process. The 10 point final margin was no indication of just how badly the Bruins dominated Berkeley. At one points, the Bruins turned what was once a 9 point deficit into a 25 point lead before garbage time cut into that advantage.

For the second straight game, Josh Shipp asserted himself with 22 points on 9-12 shooting to go along with six assists. He benefited from a flurry of fast breaks in the second half as the Bruins extended their lead. Aaron Afflalo added 13 of his own, while Darren Collison, who suffered from early foul trouble in the first half, was able to take the night off and let the rest of the team do the heavy lifting. As a team, the Bruins shot 61% from the field. Special recognition should also go to Russell Westbrook, coming off a couple of games in which he didn't get big minutes, he stepped in after Collison's second foul and immediately scored five quick points, trimming an eight point deficit to three, and keeping UC Berkeley from padding their lead early. His arrival also coincided with a defensive clampdown that helped UCLA erase that deficit and take a one point lead into the half.

How easy were the baskets coming? UCLA made - MADE - eight more three pointers against Arizona than they TOOK against Berkeley. They simply didn't need to settle for a lot of jump shots.

On the other end, Berkeley held their own, shooting 60%, and really lit it up from three point range. Of course, a fair amount of that shooting percentage was due to poor play by the Bruin bench after the game was decided, when UC Berkeley trimmed a 21 point deficit to the final losing margin. Indeed, a look at the peripheral numbers doesn't show the blowout that this came between. UCLA had the turnover edge (8-12), rebounding edge (23-20), and made two more free throws. Those numbers don't scream blowout. But that will happen when the game is basically over by the under-eight TV time out.

The story of the game, however, was Lorenzo Mata. Nine free throws, and eight through the hoop. How significant was that? He entered the game shooting 31% from the line. He left it shooting 38%. That's a seven per cent increase for a starting center, and it's late February. He's now 10 of his last 11. This is still a blip, and not quite yet a trend, but if he keeps up something close to this new level, it will make a big strategic difference for Ben Howland going into the post-season. Before the Arizona game, Mata's free throw shooting was so bad that he simply couldn't be on the floor when the Bruins had the ball in the final four minutes of the game. Couple that with Howland's fetish for using all his time-outs with about eight minutes left, and that means that Mata, their best shot blocker, couldn't be out there for defense either. This new development, if indeed it is indicative of a new level of ability, changes everything.

Combined with Wazzu's loss at Oregon (nice last possession, Cougs), UCLA takes a two game conference lead into Saturday's game at Stanford. Win that, and they clinch a share of the conference title. Lose on Saturday and they can still win the outright title in Pullman next Thursday, but they would jeopardize their number one seed, especially with games against two tough teams in their gyms next week.

Thursday, February 22, 2007

I Don't Know is on Third

A few weeks ago, the Angels were poised to enter the season with five different guys who could end up at third base. Chone Figgins was, and probably still is, the most likely candidate with the outfield more or less spoken for at this point. Additionally, camp begins with Maicer Izturis, Shea Hillenbrand, and Robb Quinlan among the guys who could see time at the hot corner. Dallas McPherson's back surgery had trimmed that list to those four. Well, add one more back to the list.

The Angels are starting camp with phenom Brandon Wood taking grounders at third base in preparation for a possible and pretty much expected inevitable move from shortstop. And while I'm linking, can anyone explain why the hell the LA Times is printing both an "Angels Report" and an "Angels Beat", which is essentially the same, yet slightly different article? Anyway, Mike Scioscia has been quick to point out that they're not giving up on Wood as a shortstop, for whatever that's worth.

Actually, this isn't particularly surprising. There aren't a lot of at bats to go around at shortstop this spring, what with Orlando Cabrera, Maicer Izturis, Erick Aybar, and (I assume) Sean Rodriguez all in camp. And the Angels are no strangers to bringing up a guy they think is ready while also creating a position for him on the fly (see also: Howie Kendrick at first base; Chone Figgins everywhere). I won't be surprised if Wood returns to short at Salt Lake, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they simply decided that they have enough depth at the six that it makes sense to get Wood more seasoning at third base.

I don't really think this is a big deal, and it's a pretty unsurprising move. It's not like moving Erstad from center to first base, where there's a huge drop in the value of an average bat. Wood will still have a lot of value as a third baseman, though perhaps not as much as at short. That difference could be made up on defense. To the extent there's been any Angels "news" lately, I guess this is it.

Last Dance

Chief Illiniwek has pranced across the Assembly Hall floor for the last time. It was apparently an emotional moment for some, and the Chief broke tradition by running back on to the floor after the performance to salute the building and the fans one last time. I've already posted on this, and my position is pretty clear. Anyway, if you want to see the final performance for yourself, have at it.

The Illini beat Michigan last night at the Assembly Hall, pushing them to 8-6 on the season, and bringing them within one win of a guaranteed winning record in the Big Ten, to go along with 20+ wins. A lot of people are hoping a win at Iowa or Penn State will be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament. I'm not so sure. Win both and they're in. Win one, and they probably need at least one conference tournament victory. Lose both and they're probably done, barring some sort of crazy Corey Bradford-like run to the conference championship game.

This one wasn't available for people who don't have ESPNU, which is pretty much everyone who doesn't have DirecTV. As such, I missed it. The teams combined to shoot only 36%, so maybe the TV people were just saving us from ourselves. Sounded like they came out really determined in the second half, and after taking a lead into the break, they broke it open early in the half, and never really let Michigan back into it.

Warren Carter was the big star, with 18 and 9, going 3-4 from beyond the arc. Rich McBride, was the only other Illini in double figures with 11, and to round out the senior night trio, Marcus Arnold had four points in 16 minutes.

As the speculation over the future of Jamar Smith continues, it's worth noting that he was at the game last night, seated with the team and next to teammate Brian Carlwell, who continues to recover from a severe concussion. Much of the message board discussion has centered around Smith's unfortunate and strange decision to not call for help while Carlwell sat unconscious in the car. It would appear that, at least in Carlwell's opinion, there are no hard feelings.

I'm not sure how Coach Weber will end up dealing with the situation. There are reports that no fewer than six players were at the apartment after Smith drove the car home from the accident site. I don't feel comfortable speculating about the reasons that none of them called 911, and maybe there's some sort of explanation. I can't fathom what it might be, or how that many guys could screw up by letting Jamar and Brian get in the car to begin with.

As for Jamar's future, there's still a very real possibility of jail time that we can't simply ignore. Barring that, and assuming Jamar ends up with some combination of probation/community service/alchohol awareness training, I think if I were Coach Weber I would "suspend" Jamar for the 2007-2008 season. Make him redshirt. Set goals for things like grades, service, etc. Make him earn his spot back on the time by re-earning the trust of the team, the student body, and the community. Furthermore, I would lay this all out for Jamar and let him decide whether he wants to go through that. I have no doubts that he could leave the U of I, and head to a D-2 or lower school and play next year. And if he decides he can't live up to those terms, then you wish him luck wherever he ends up. But ultimately, Jamar is the one deciding whether Jamar returns to the Illini. I don't like the idea of a zero tolerance policy for the team. I don't like zero tolerance policies in general. But I wouldn't have a problem imposing one specifically on Jamar in this instance.

On to Penn State this weekend to see if the Illini can take one more step towards an NCAA tournament birth.