Conference Tournaments

First of all, let me just say that I'm not really a big fan of conference tournaments in college basketball. I think the concept is kind of stupid, and really doesn't prove anything, especially considering that almost all conferences allow all of their teams to reach to the tournament. It's even more meaningless in the Pac 10, where everyone plays everyone else twice, and the conference can crown a true champion in the regular season.

In small conferences, where they're only likely to send one team to the dance, it's not unheard of for one team to bust their asses all year to win the conference outright, only to lose in the conference tourney and be shut out of the NCAA tournament. I'm not going to look for examples right now because I'm lazy, but it's not a difficult concept to grasp. For large conferences, multiple teams are going to get invited, usually regardless of the outcome of the tourney (hell, the Big 10 conference tourney ends so late that they field really has to be set before the final game anyway). Best case scenario, there are no shake ups. Worst case scenario, you get an NIT bound team who goes on a run, wins the tourney, and sends another, more deserving, team home.

That's not to say conference tourneys aren't exciting. Some of the most exciting basketball I've ever seen was in 1999, when the last place Illini made an improbable run to the Big 10 championship game before losing to eventual Final Four team Michigan State. In that run, Corey Bradford was unconscious, almost singlehandedly willing the Illini to the championship game. It also featured probably the greatest play I've ever seen. Leading Ohio State in the final minute of the semi-final game, Damir Krupalija flew to the baseline to block a three point attempt (probably by Scoonie Penn, but I was probably drunk at the time, so I can't remember). Not only did he block the shot, but he controlled it, and while trying to call timeout as he was falling out of bounds, he was fouled. So what was once an open three turned into free throws for the Illini. Ohio State would later join Michigan State in the final four that year.

Anyway, my problems with conference tournaments aside, here's how I see them falling out in the Pac 10 and Big 10 this season.

Pac 10

Wednesday
Cal over OSU
Washington over ASU

Thursday
UCLA over Cal
Stanford over U$C
Washington State over Washington
Arizona over Oregon

Friday
UCLA over Arizona (again)
Stanford over Washington State

Saturday
UCLA over Stanford

I'd be absolutely fine with UCLA losing to Arizona or Oregon in that second round game. I think they're still a lock for the number one seed in the West, almost regardless of what happens in the tourney, but I'm pretty sure one win gets it done. And they could probably use the rest. Then again, last year they won the tourney and the extra games didn't seem to bother them.

I also wouldn't be surprised to Washington upset Wazzu, now that they apparently care about defense. I don't buy the "tough to beat a team three times" canard. If a team was that tough to beat, they wouldn't have lost the first two times.

Really, this conference has been so tough this year that I could see any of the top seven teams winning it. Nothing would surprise me outside of Cal, OSU, or ASU making a run.

Big 10

Thursday
Michigan over Minnesota
MSU over Northwestern
Illinois over Penn State

Friday
OSU over Michigan
Purdue over Iowa
MSU over Wisconsin
Illinois over Indiana

Saturday
OSU over Purdue
MSU over Illinois

Sunday
OSU over MSU

If it shakes out that way, the question is who goes to the NCAA tournament. OSU and Wisconsin are locks. Indiana is probably in regardless of what happens. A trip to the final would get the job done for MSU. But would that be it? I would assume that two more wins would be enough for Illinois, but if Purdue advances as far, would the committee keep them out? Illinois would have two more wins, and they currently sit 10 spots above Purdue in the RPI. Still, something tells me that short of a run to the finals, Illinois is going to get left out. I know it's counter to what I've said all along, but call it a gut feeling. I said they needed to win one of their last two road games (which they did at Penn State), and one game in the tournament. But the sixth seed means that one win isn't very impressive. They probably need two, and it would really help if Iowa beat Purdue in the quarterfinals. Otherwise, the committee would have to take six Big 10 teams, and I can't see that happening.

Last Dance

Chief Illiniwek has pranced across the Assembly Hall floor for the last time. It was apparently an emotional moment for some, and the Chief broke tradition by running back on to the floor after the performance to salute the building and the fans one last time. I've already posted on this, and my position is pretty clear. Anyway, if you want to see the final performance for yourself, have at it.

The Illini beat Michigan last night at the Assembly Hall, pushing them to 8-6 on the season, and bringing them within one win of a guaranteed winning record in the Big Ten, to go along with 20+ wins. A lot of people are hoping a win at Iowa or Penn State will be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament. I'm not so sure. Win both and they're in. Win one, and they probably need at least one conference tournament victory. Lose both and they're probably done, barring some sort of crazy Corey Bradford-like run to the conference championship game.

This one wasn't available for people who don't have ESPNU, which is pretty much everyone who doesn't have DirecTV. As such, I missed it. The teams combined to shoot only 36%, so maybe the TV people were just saving us from ourselves. Sounded like they came out really determined in the second half, and after taking a lead into the break, they broke it open early in the half, and never really let Michigan back into it.

Warren Carter was the big star, with 18 and 9, going 3-4 from beyond the arc. Rich McBride, was the only other Illini in double figures with 11, and to round out the senior night trio, Marcus Arnold had four points in 16 minutes.

As the speculation over the future of Jamar Smith continues, it's worth noting that he was at the game last night, seated with the team and next to teammate Brian Carlwell, who continues to recover from a severe concussion. Much of the message board discussion has centered around Smith's unfortunate and strange decision to not call for help while Carlwell sat unconscious in the car. It would appear that, at least in Carlwell's opinion, there are no hard feelings.

I'm not sure how Coach Weber will end up dealing with the situation. There are reports that no fewer than six players were at the apartment after Smith drove the car home from the accident site. I don't feel comfortable speculating about the reasons that none of them called 911, and maybe there's some sort of explanation. I can't fathom what it might be, or how that many guys could screw up by letting Jamar and Brian get in the car to begin with.

As for Jamar's future, there's still a very real possibility of jail time that we can't simply ignore. Barring that, and assuming Jamar ends up with some combination of probation/community service/alchohol awareness training, I think if I were Coach Weber I would "suspend" Jamar for the 2007-2008 season. Make him redshirt. Set goals for things like grades, service, etc. Make him earn his spot back on the time by re-earning the trust of the team, the student body, and the community. Furthermore, I would lay this all out for Jamar and let him decide whether he wants to go through that. I have no doubts that he could leave the U of I, and head to a D-2 or lower school and play next year. And if he decides he can't live up to those terms, then you wish him luck wherever he ends up. But ultimately, Jamar is the one deciding whether Jamar returns to the Illini. I don't like the idea of a zero tolerance policy for the team. I don't like zero tolerance policies in general. But I wouldn't have a problem imposing one specifically on Jamar in this instance.

On to Penn State this weekend to see if the Illini can take one more step towards an NCAA tournament birth.

Illinois, Jamar, and the Chief

Jamar Smith

Another tidbit of information in the continuing Jamar Smith saga. Bruce Weber released a statement today that Jamar will be taking the rest of the season off. Read into that what you will. I have been in a few small car accidents, none serious, none with any injuries to anyone involved. Right now, all of the factual information available can be explained in a direction that makes things look awful for Jamar, or in a direction that looks very favorable. Every piece of sinister looking information can be fairly easily explained away. A lot of key facts simply aren't yet in evidence.

I have never suffered a concussion, so I can't speak to how I've ever reacted to one. I've heard all sorts of stories about people sustaining concussions, then continuing to act fairly normally, only to end up completely unable to remember the events immediately following the injury. It kind of reminds me of Dwight on that episode of the Office where Michael cooked his foot. Anyway, I'm not sure we'll ever get the whole story unless there's a trial.

But what has really bugged me about this whole thing are the people who cite "whispers" and "sources I know". Look, I know we all want to know what happened, but what we think we know now isn't going to change what has already happened. What results are message board flame wars where it becomes primarily about being right, regardless of the real world consequences for those involved. I know, because I've been in positions where I've wanted the Angels (for example) to win, not because them doing so made me genuinely happy, but rather just to show up more pessimistic Angels fans who had been really pissing me off.

As I said above, there are a hundred different things that may have happened that night that we simply don't know about yet, and as someone who's never been in Jamar's position, I can't really speculate as to how I would act under similar circumstances. And if I can't speculate as to how I would act, I certainly am not able to do it for anyone else. So I suggest we sit back, let the investigation proceed, and comment on the facts as we know them when we know them.

Chief Illiniwek

Now, about the Chief, as some of you have probably heard, the University of Illinois announced today that Chief Illiniwek is pretty much done as a symbol of the University. There has been outside pressure to make this move for a long time, and almost as much inside pressure to maintain the status quo. I'm not sure which straw broke the camel's back, so to speak, but keep in mind that the N.I.T. utilizes home sites for early round games, and if this Illini team is going to play in the post-season, right now, that looks like the mostly likely destination. As long as the Chief was dancing, Illinois was not going to host a post-season competition.

Personally, I've never had particularly strong feelings about the Chief one way or another. I'll be honest, I like going to football and basketball games and watching the Chief perform. It was an exciting spectacle, and most of the crowd really got into it. But it's not going to kill me if/when they get rid of him.

My position is pretty simple. I'd like to think that if I were Native American, I wouldn't be offended by the Chief, but I can't say for sure without being in that position. And I realize that it appears to be a small minorities of Native Americans who have expressed anger with the Chief. But there are lots of mascots out there. There's a choice between having a mascot that offends very few people, and a mascot that offends no one. Isn't the choice to offend no one pretty obviously the right one? This isn't about being politically correct. It's about not being an asshole. Granted, I didn't grow up in Illinois. I didn't grow up with the tradition, and I'm glad I got a chance to see the Chief while I was in school. But if UCLA felt they needed to change their mascot, or if UCR decided that it was no longer going to be known as the Highlanders, I've gotta think I wouldn't be particularly outraged. I certainly wouldn't stop donating money to UCR. Hell, I stopped doing that a long time ago!

So to sum up, it seems like a decision that was inevitable, and it's not really going to bother me either way. I'm not so sure why people are apoplectic about it, but people get crazy about weird stuff. Whaddya gonna do?