At some point today, this site had its 25,000th visit. Only half of those were from me.
Also, this is officially the first post I've entered a) while actually travelling, and b) from a Blackberry or other such mobile device. One of the benefits of a new job.
This also means I'll likely not see any of the UCLA - Wazzu game.
Thursday, December 28, 2006
More travel
Heading up to Santa Cruz today, then driving back tomorrow, so posting may be lighter than it's been recently, assuming that's possible. And yep, still pissed about the Hillenbrand signing.
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Well, thank God it's basketball season
Hey, at least UCLA played one good football game. Pat Cowan proved why he's not a real starting quarterback. And Stanford has to be pretty happy right now that they didn't hire Walker. Nice work on third down, defense. Utterly pathetic performance.
Angels Sign Hillenbrand
Seitz quits caring about Angels.
Seriously, management deserves to lose every game this season. These guys are fucking morons.
Seriously, management deserves to lose every game this season. These guys are fucking morons.
Friday, December 22, 2006
Traveling
I'm posting this from O'Hare, where my flight has been delayed for an hour and twenty minutes. I'll be back in the Southland tonight and hanging around until the 3rd, with a possible run up and back to the Bay Area. The bad news is that I waited too long to buy my ticket, and it's costing me a little under $700. The good news is that part of that includes a first class ticket on the way out, which is nice. Last time I flew first class it was because I missed my flight and had to go stand-by. Ended up a row or two in front of Keith Foulke and Bill Mueller on their way to Phoenix for the all-star break. Anyway, I'd be looking forward to the warm weather with more excitement if it hadn't been fairly warm here lately, though a little wet.
Big one for the Bruins, tomorrow. Michigan comes in with only one loss, though they haven't played a particularly tough schedule. Still, they've got some skill, and a lot of athleticism, especially Petway, who can jump out of the gym. Last year the Bruins constantly double teamed the ball in the post, and it was a very successful strategy, though they still needed a key late steal by Aaron Afflalo to seal the win. On paper, this year's game shouldn't be as tough, but the Bruins haven't exactly been firing on all cylinders for 40 minutes lately, and as poorly coached as Michigan is, it won't be as easy to put together big runs, the likes of which put away Sam Houston State and Oakland. A common explanation for the sluggish play in those games is that they've been looking ahead to Michigan and conference season. Let's see if they play like it tomorrow.
Big one for the Bruins, tomorrow. Michigan comes in with only one loss, though they haven't played a particularly tough schedule. Still, they've got some skill, and a lot of athleticism, especially Petway, who can jump out of the gym. Last year the Bruins constantly double teamed the ball in the post, and it was a very successful strategy, though they still needed a key late steal by Aaron Afflalo to seal the win. On paper, this year's game shouldn't be as tough, but the Bruins haven't exactly been firing on all cylinders for 40 minutes lately, and as poorly coached as Michigan is, it won't be as easy to put together big runs, the likes of which put away Sam Houston State and Oakland. A common explanation for the sluggish play in those games is that they've been looking ahead to Michigan and conference season. Let's see if they play like it tomorrow.
Thursday, December 21, 2006
John Lackey Unfiltered
Baseball Prospectus has a new blog section called Unfiltered. I imagine you have to be a subscriber to get access to it. I'm a subscriber, so I get it. Anyway, the other day, Nate Silver did a bit on "The Most Underrated Pitcher in Baseball":
Considering the strength of the Angels bullpen over the last few seasons, early removal of a starter who is otherwise pitching well isn't the problem that it would be on a team with a crappy bullpen, so the net result is probably negligible. That doesn't make it any easier for me to watch him pitch. And ultimately (and this goes for Ervin Santana, too), if he could develop an ability to take advantage of those counts and save himself some pitches, he could add 2/3 of inning to his per game average. That's an extra 20-25 innings per year that he could take back from the pen. FWIW, his innings/start is pretty comparable with Zito, Willis, and Brett Myers, although he trails behind Brandon Webb, and that's before taking into account the fact that Webb plays in a league where he may occasionally be removed for a hitter even when he's going good on the mound.
It's nice to see some respect for Lackey from the new media, and thanks to Nate for digging a little deeper into the numbers. I'll continue to like Lackey, and I'll continue to get frustrated with his inability or unwillingness to put guys away earlier in the count, but if he keeps putting up seasons like he has the last couple of years, the frustrations will be fleeting.
PECOTA says that he’s the 20th most valuable pitcher in baseball long-term, more valuable than Roy Oswalt, Dontrelle Willis, or Justin Verlander. He’s one of just eleven pitchers to post a VORP of 40 or higher in each of the last two seasons. He pitches in a major media market, is in the prime of his career, and has no red flags in his injury or health performance record. And yet, he’s never received a vote for the Cy Young award, never made an All-Star team, and has barely one-fifth the Google hits of Barry Zito.Well, assuming you read the title of this post, you know who it is. It's John Lackey. Included in that entry are the ten other pitchers who hit the VORP requirement, and of those ten, Lackey's last two seasons have been at about the bottom of that list, behind all but Brett Myers. Anyone who's been reading this site a fair amount over the last couple of seasons is aware of my frustrations with John Lackey. I love the guy, and I think he's a great pitcher. But he's incredibly frustrating to watch. He's got a horrible habit of getting ahead of guys 0-2 or 1-2, then taking about 10 more pitches to finish guys off. As a result, he'll routinely hit the 100 pitch mark around the sixth inning. Now, Nate and I know each other fairly well. He's a Chicago guy, and we knew each other through Primer before he started writing for Prospectus. I sent him a quick email with my observations, and he did a little digging, resulting in today's post, which I'll excerpt with his permission:
Who is he?
...Lackey has wound up walking the batter 4.7% of the time that the at-bat starts out with an 0-2 count. That struck me as a high percentage...and in fact it is. I took a sample of 25 arbitrarily-selected starting pitchers,....[O]nly two of these pitchers walked the hitter more often than Lackey. [ed. note: the list contained all quality starting pitchers, ranging from Johan Santana at the high end of the ability scale down to probably Eric Milton at the low end]That's a great point, and as I responded to Nate, my problem isn't so much that Lackey gets hurt more often than he should when he gets ahead, but rather that he sends his pitch count to a level that leads to Scioscia bringing the hook early than he might want to (and definitely earlier than I want him to). For what it's worth, I have no recollection of complaining about Lackey giving up too many two out hits (though for all I know, I may have complained about this before).
Score one for our Angels fan [ed. note: Woohoo!]....
But is walking the hitter following an 0-2 count a bad thing?
Lackey’s OPS allowed following 0-2 counts if .405, which is a low number; the average for pitchers in this sample is .465....
It turns out that there is a correlation between walk rate on an 0-2 count and OPS allowed, but it’s quite weak (.26).... Lackey’s hyperaggressive strategy when ahead in the count might be frustrating to his fans and his managers, but there’s no evidence that it’s poor pitching.
Considering the strength of the Angels bullpen over the last few seasons, early removal of a starter who is otherwise pitching well isn't the problem that it would be on a team with a crappy bullpen, so the net result is probably negligible. That doesn't make it any easier for me to watch him pitch. And ultimately (and this goes for Ervin Santana, too), if he could develop an ability to take advantage of those counts and save himself some pitches, he could add 2/3 of inning to his per game average. That's an extra 20-25 innings per year that he could take back from the pen. FWIW, his innings/start is pretty comparable with Zito, Willis, and Brett Myers, although he trails behind Brandon Webb, and that's before taking into account the fact that Webb plays in a league where he may occasionally be removed for a hitter even when he's going good on the mound.
It's nice to see some respect for Lackey from the new media, and thanks to Nate for digging a little deeper into the numbers. I'll continue to like Lackey, and I'll continue to get frustrated with his inability or unwillingness to put guys away earlier in the count, but if he keeps putting up seasons like he has the last couple of years, the frustrations will be fleeting.
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Lots of doings last night
The Kings, Lakers, Illini, and Bruins were pretty much all on TV at the same time last night, so it was a workout for both the DVR and the split screen, but I caught a sufficient amount of each game, except maybe the Lakers game, which quite frankly, I didn't really care that much about anyway.
Illinois
For the seventh straight season, the Illini walked off the court in St. Louis with the Busch Bragging Rights trophy, having down Missouri yet again. It was actually a very entertaining game. Tons of lead changes, lots of runs by both teams, a very quick pace, and a lot of fun to watch.
Coming off a 22 turnover performance against Belmont, this one looked a little scary for the Illini. Mizzou, under new coach Mike Anderson, is running Nolan Richardson's old 40 minutes of hell system. High pressure, turnover inducing basketball. But Chet Frazier rose the challenge, turning the ball over just three times against the press, off-set by his three steals, while dishing out six assists and scoring eight points in nearly 40 minutes of action. But he wasn't a runaway player of the game. Sean Pruitt scored a career high 19 points to go with nine boards. And Brian Randle made big play after big play, adding 10 points, seven boards, and two steals of his own. He made a huge block down the stretch, and kept a possession alive when he tipped a rebound of a missed free throw out to a teammate in the final minute. Still, the Tigers hung tough, and had a chance to tie with under four seconds to go when Stephon Hannah fumbled away an attempt at a three.
Despite some other (better) takes, I actually thought the Illini looked pretty good, and the performances by Pruitt and Randle are something to build on. Warren Carter had a bit of an off night before taking a shot to his hip flexor, but it was good to see that they could win when he doesn't have a big night. Conference play is right around the corner.
UCLA
Fortunately, the Illinois game kept me from paying a great deal of attention to the first half. It was really an awful performance. The funny thing is, if you look at the numbers, the game doesn't look that bad. They shot a great percentage from the field, from beyond the arc, and from the free throw line. They held Sam Houston State to relatively low numbers from the field, and the led the rebounding battle. But they got behind big early, and with the slow down "Princeton" style that SHS plays, it took them a long time to get back into the game. It was a definite trap game, coming a few days before Saturday's test with Michigan. School's out as well, and the home crowd was less than intimidating (quick aside: Why can't this team draw for shit? I can't think of another storied program, ranked number one, that wouldn't have sold out this game, and it's not like Pauley is a big venue).
Leading the way again, surprise surprise, were Josh Shipp with 18, Aaron Afflalo with 12, and Darren Collison with 11. I thought Russel Westbrook, despite only playing 10 minutes, had probably his best game aesthetically. He dropped in seven point on three for four shooting, and moved the ball well despite not picking up any assists. The kid can score, maybe a little better than Collison could at this point last season. If ha can mature a little more this season, he'll be nice option when the Bruins need an extra offensive punch, and I especially like the lineup this team would be able to put out against a team like Missouri (they aren't scheduled, but I use them as an example) if they wanted to go small and litter the court with ball-handlers and scorers. Michigan awaits on Saturday.
Kings
Slow start again, down 2-0 early thanks to two bad goals allowed by Cloutier, and the Kings never recovered. Despite the heroic efforts of man-child Anze Kopitar (two more goals and an assist), the Kings never got closer than a goal down. Both of Kopitar's second period goals were answered by Flames who pretty much waltzed into the crease to re-extend the lead to two goals each time, and despite dominating the second period, the Kings had nothing to show for it. When Kristian Huselius cherry picked his way into the Flames fifth goal with about 7:30 to play, the deal was done. Dustin Brown added his ninth of the season on the power play to cut into the final margin.
Not sure I would have gone away from Brust in this one if I were Marc Crawford. The kid looked as good in his two games as Cloutier has looked in his two best games this season. Probably should have given Cloutier a couple more days of practice to get back into the action, but hindsight it 20/20.
The bad news is that Kings seem to be taking one step forward, one step back. On the plus side, that's a big improvement over the one step forward, three steps back they were routinely taking a couple of months ago. There's a lot of season left, and these guys aren't going to make the playoffs, but the guys who need to progress are progressing, and the guys who aren't progressing aren't going to be a part of the next good Kings team anyway.
Illinois
For the seventh straight season, the Illini walked off the court in St. Louis with the Busch Bragging Rights trophy, having down Missouri yet again. It was actually a very entertaining game. Tons of lead changes, lots of runs by both teams, a very quick pace, and a lot of fun to watch.
Coming off a 22 turnover performance against Belmont, this one looked a little scary for the Illini. Mizzou, under new coach Mike Anderson, is running Nolan Richardson's old 40 minutes of hell system. High pressure, turnover inducing basketball. But Chet Frazier rose the challenge, turning the ball over just three times against the press, off-set by his three steals, while dishing out six assists and scoring eight points in nearly 40 minutes of action. But he wasn't a runaway player of the game. Sean Pruitt scored a career high 19 points to go with nine boards. And Brian Randle made big play after big play, adding 10 points, seven boards, and two steals of his own. He made a huge block down the stretch, and kept a possession alive when he tipped a rebound of a missed free throw out to a teammate in the final minute. Still, the Tigers hung tough, and had a chance to tie with under four seconds to go when Stephon Hannah fumbled away an attempt at a three.
Despite some other (better) takes, I actually thought the Illini looked pretty good, and the performances by Pruitt and Randle are something to build on. Warren Carter had a bit of an off night before taking a shot to his hip flexor, but it was good to see that they could win when he doesn't have a big night. Conference play is right around the corner.
UCLA
Fortunately, the Illinois game kept me from paying a great deal of attention to the first half. It was really an awful performance. The funny thing is, if you look at the numbers, the game doesn't look that bad. They shot a great percentage from the field, from beyond the arc, and from the free throw line. They held Sam Houston State to relatively low numbers from the field, and the led the rebounding battle. But they got behind big early, and with the slow down "Princeton" style that SHS plays, it took them a long time to get back into the game. It was a definite trap game, coming a few days before Saturday's test with Michigan. School's out as well, and the home crowd was less than intimidating (quick aside: Why can't this team draw for shit? I can't think of another storied program, ranked number one, that wouldn't have sold out this game, and it's not like Pauley is a big venue).
Leading the way again, surprise surprise, were Josh Shipp with 18, Aaron Afflalo with 12, and Darren Collison with 11. I thought Russel Westbrook, despite only playing 10 minutes, had probably his best game aesthetically. He dropped in seven point on three for four shooting, and moved the ball well despite not picking up any assists. The kid can score, maybe a little better than Collison could at this point last season. If ha can mature a little more this season, he'll be nice option when the Bruins need an extra offensive punch, and I especially like the lineup this team would be able to put out against a team like Missouri (they aren't scheduled, but I use them as an example) if they wanted to go small and litter the court with ball-handlers and scorers. Michigan awaits on Saturday.
Kings
Slow start again, down 2-0 early thanks to two bad goals allowed by Cloutier, and the Kings never recovered. Despite the heroic efforts of man-child Anze Kopitar (two more goals and an assist), the Kings never got closer than a goal down. Both of Kopitar's second period goals were answered by Flames who pretty much waltzed into the crease to re-extend the lead to two goals each time, and despite dominating the second period, the Kings had nothing to show for it. When Kristian Huselius cherry picked his way into the Flames fifth goal with about 7:30 to play, the deal was done. Dustin Brown added his ninth of the season on the power play to cut into the final margin.
Not sure I would have gone away from Brust in this one if I were Marc Crawford. The kid looked as good in his two games as Cloutier has looked in his two best games this season. Probably should have given Cloutier a couple more days of practice to get back into the action, but hindsight it 20/20.
The bad news is that Kings seem to be taking one step forward, one step back. On the plus side, that's a big improvement over the one step forward, three steps back they were routinely taking a couple of months ago. There's a lot of season left, and these guys aren't going to make the playoffs, but the guys who need to progress are progressing, and the guys who aren't progressing aren't going to be a part of the next good Kings team anyway.
Monday, December 18, 2006
The Weekend
Not to be confused with "The Weak Ender". Pretty slow weekend as far as sports that I care about are concerned. Slow starts doomed one team, and almost doomed two more.
UCLA
This game wasn't on TV in my part of the country, but from the looks of things, the Bruins didn't get things going until late in the first half. The big scorers were the guys you expect to be the big scorers, Afflalo, Shipp, and Collison. For one of the few times this season, the Bruins didn't enjoy a large turnover margin (they only forced 16 while turning it over 14 times). Especially discouraging was the rebounding margin. They were outrebounded by the Golden Grizzlies 35-31. That has to improve. Weird stat of the game: Mike Roll scored 8 points on 4-8 shooting, which means he made four two point baskets, and no three pointers. I would not have expected a stat like that in his entire career.
Positive: They held their opponent to 32% shooting while making 51% of their own shots. On the year, they haven't been a great field goal percentage defense, making up for that with forced turnovers. Negative: 55% from the free throw line. At some point this season, that's going to kill them if it doesn't get better. Altough, I should point our that four of their eight misses were from Josh Shipp (3-7), who is really not a bad free throw shooter. Still, it's been a team issue all season.
Oh well, first game in a week, and they were sluggish, as is to be expected. They still coasted in the second half, and found minutes for Keefe, Wright, and Westbrook. Still, a game against an opponent like this should have featured a lot more garbage time.
Illinois
Another slow start. Back and forth game for the first half. Belmont (who faced UCLA in the first round of last year's tournament) is a three point shooting team and it seemed in the first half like every time the Illini opened a six or eight point lead, Belmont would hit a couple of threes and get back in the game. The second half was another story, though, as the Illini went on a big run to start the half that essentially put the game away.
Warren Carter, who's been absolutely outstanding this season, led the way with 21 points, despite only going 4-9 from the free throw line and turning the ball over six times. He's not a bad free throw shooter, so hopefully that was an abberation. Sean Pruitt added 13, and Brian Randle had 10 to give the Illini frontcourt a big advantage over their opponents. Both teams hit eight three pointer, but Belmont needed seven more shots to get there, and their second half shooting was awful. Chester Frazier had a surprising 11 rebounds, and six assists against three turnovers. Turnovers were a problem, with the Illini giving it away 22 times. That's not a very Bruce Weber-like statistic, and it will have to get better in Big 10 play for the Illini to have a respectable season. Again, like UCLA, they had a week off, and it's not surprising to see them come out flat in the first half.
Bragging Rights Game against Missouri is Tuesday night. The Illini are riding a Bragging Rights Game winning streak that goes back to my second year in law school, but it actually looks to be in jeopardy this season. Should be a good game.
Angels
They didn't do anything this weekend....slackers.
Kings
A poor first period was a little too much to overcome on Saturday against Dallas, despite a terrific second period and a solid third. Still, they pulled a point against a team that has completely owned them this season. The last couple weeks, they've looked like they really belong in the NHL, which is a nice change. Ironically, they've been getting their most consistent goaltending ever since they all started getting hurt. Brust has looked pretty darn good in his two starts. They showed a lot of resilience coming back from a two goal deficit, despite blowing a late lead before going to overtime. The shootout kind of sucked, though.
I really shouldn't be surprised at the success they've had the last month or so on the power play. They have a lot of offensive talent, and they've got a ton of skill and experience on the blue line for those situations. But they've been so inexplicably bad with the extra man the last couple of years that I'd pretty much given up hope. Of course, the PK is still pathetic.
The good news is that they've played most of their games scheduled against the Ducks, Sharks, and Stars, so the schedule should get a little easier in the second half.
UCLA
This game wasn't on TV in my part of the country, but from the looks of things, the Bruins didn't get things going until late in the first half. The big scorers were the guys you expect to be the big scorers, Afflalo, Shipp, and Collison. For one of the few times this season, the Bruins didn't enjoy a large turnover margin (they only forced 16 while turning it over 14 times). Especially discouraging was the rebounding margin. They were outrebounded by the Golden Grizzlies 35-31. That has to improve. Weird stat of the game: Mike Roll scored 8 points on 4-8 shooting, which means he made four two point baskets, and no three pointers. I would not have expected a stat like that in his entire career.
Positive: They held their opponent to 32% shooting while making 51% of their own shots. On the year, they haven't been a great field goal percentage defense, making up for that with forced turnovers. Negative: 55% from the free throw line. At some point this season, that's going to kill them if it doesn't get better. Altough, I should point our that four of their eight misses were from Josh Shipp (3-7), who is really not a bad free throw shooter. Still, it's been a team issue all season.
Oh well, first game in a week, and they were sluggish, as is to be expected. They still coasted in the second half, and found minutes for Keefe, Wright, and Westbrook. Still, a game against an opponent like this should have featured a lot more garbage time.
Illinois
Another slow start. Back and forth game for the first half. Belmont (who faced UCLA in the first round of last year's tournament) is a three point shooting team and it seemed in the first half like every time the Illini opened a six or eight point lead, Belmont would hit a couple of threes and get back in the game. The second half was another story, though, as the Illini went on a big run to start the half that essentially put the game away.
Warren Carter, who's been absolutely outstanding this season, led the way with 21 points, despite only going 4-9 from the free throw line and turning the ball over six times. He's not a bad free throw shooter, so hopefully that was an abberation. Sean Pruitt added 13, and Brian Randle had 10 to give the Illini frontcourt a big advantage over their opponents. Both teams hit eight three pointer, but Belmont needed seven more shots to get there, and their second half shooting was awful. Chester Frazier had a surprising 11 rebounds, and six assists against three turnovers. Turnovers were a problem, with the Illini giving it away 22 times. That's not a very Bruce Weber-like statistic, and it will have to get better in Big 10 play for the Illini to have a respectable season. Again, like UCLA, they had a week off, and it's not surprising to see them come out flat in the first half.
Bragging Rights Game against Missouri is Tuesday night. The Illini are riding a Bragging Rights Game winning streak that goes back to my second year in law school, but it actually looks to be in jeopardy this season. Should be a good game.
Angels
They didn't do anything this weekend....slackers.
Kings
A poor first period was a little too much to overcome on Saturday against Dallas, despite a terrific second period and a solid third. Still, they pulled a point against a team that has completely owned them this season. The last couple weeks, they've looked like they really belong in the NHL, which is a nice change. Ironically, they've been getting their most consistent goaltending ever since they all started getting hurt. Brust has looked pretty darn good in his two starts. They showed a lot of resilience coming back from a two goal deficit, despite blowing a late lead before going to overtime. The shootout kind of sucked, though.
I really shouldn't be surprised at the success they've had the last month or so on the power play. They have a lot of offensive talent, and they've got a ton of skill and experience on the blue line for those situations. But they've been so inexplicably bad with the extra man the last couple of years that I'd pretty much given up hope. Of course, the PK is still pathetic.
The good news is that they've played most of their games scheduled against the Ducks, Sharks, and Stars, so the schedule should get a little easier in the second half.
Friday, December 15, 2006
Brendan Donnelly traded to Boston
For minor league non-prospect Phil Seibel. He's a couple years removed from Tommy John surgery, and like Terry Evans, appeared to make a dramatic one year improvement at a pretty advanced age. Somewhat ironic in that Donnelly was a similar minor league journeyman who made the majors for good at an advanced age. If the similarities continue, maybe we can expect Seibel to nd have a few very successful major league seasons. He was primarily a starter in A and AA last year, before converting to relief at AAA and pitching 15 very good innings.
It's a shot in the dark, to be sure, but the Angels rid themselves of a guy who showed a bad attitude last year when he was demoted to the fourth arm out of the pen, and right now, it looks like he would have been no better than the fifth or sixth arm out of the pen. It also goes to show how crappy the Red Sox bullpen is that Donnelly could be their best reliever next season. So the worst case scenario is that the Angels get something for a guy who would have been mop up at best next season, and still needs to be signed. Good move by Stoneman.
It's a shot in the dark, to be sure, but the Angels rid themselves of a guy who showed a bad attitude last year when he was demoted to the fourth arm out of the pen, and right now, it looks like he would have been no better than the fifth or sixth arm out of the pen. It also goes to show how crappy the Red Sox bullpen is that Donnelly could be their best reliever next season. So the worst case scenario is that the Angels get something for a guy who would have been mop up at best next season, and still needs to be signed. Good move by Stoneman.
Slow week, but the Kings won
There has been very little news this week that I care about. Both UCLA and Illinois have taken the week off for finals, the Angels signed Darren Oliver, and that's about it. We're even in the slow period for college football. When that happens, you get a bunch of Super Furry Animals videos (and really, you're better off because of it).
But on the plus side, the Kings played one of their best games of the season last night at the worst arena in the NHL (more on that later). Anze motherfucking Kopitar had two fantastic goals, including the first short hander allowed by San Jose this season. Michael Cammalleri and Derek Armstrong added a couple of their own, and emergency starter Barry Brust played brilliantly in net to earn his first NHL win.
In a couple of weeks I'll revisit the good and bad from my season preview and player predictions for the Kings. Mostly bad, I'm guessing, which pretty much matches the Kings so far. But there have been positives, not the least of which is the revelation that has been Anze Kopitar. I've been watching the Kings for probably 25 years, and he's the most physically gifted player at his age I've seen come out of their system in that time. After a slow start, Alexander Frolov has really picked up his game in the last couple months, and if he can sustain it through the rest of the season, it could represent a step forward. The talent has always been there. The consistency hasn't. Dustin Brown has shown offensive flashes, and continues to fearlessly go after the largest trees in the forest. Cammalleri hasn't put up huge numbers, but he's been a solid offensive contributor, and he's just looked better to me this season than last, though the numbers may not bear that out. Let's face it, the Kings aren't very good, but the foundation is there, and so far I have no complaints about Dean Lombardi's rebuilding.
And finally, a couple of words about the shittiest arena I've ever been to, HP Pavilion in San Jose. I've attended hockey games at the Forum, Staples Center, whatever the hell they're calling the arena in Anaheim, the United Center, Joe Louis Arena, some minor league stadium in Toledo, and the arena in San Jose flat out sucks. I went to a game in 1996 or 1997 when the Kings were playing the Sharks. One of my college roommates lived up there, so I flew in and we hung around San Jose before heading to the arena when the doors opened about an hour and a half before the game. We had seats in the first available row of the second deck in the center ice section (which is actually the second row, as it sits right behind the broadcasters). The cool thing was that we got to chat with Mike Allison and Bob Miller before the game. However, at this arena, there is a railing which is in place around the landing at the top of the stairs to keep people from falling into the lower deck. Note the term "railing", as opposed to, say, plexi-glass or something else that you can actually see through. Anyway, despite the modern design tools in the hands of the architects, and despite the primo nature of our seats, we were completely blocked from seeing one entire section of the ice. This is an unacceptable design flaw. There should be no such thing as an obstructed view seat in a modern arena. I'm still bitter about that experience, and it has nothing to do with the fact that Kings got the crap beat out of them that night. So yeah, that place is a piece of crap.
But on the plus side, the Kings played one of their best games of the season last night at the worst arena in the NHL (more on that later). Anze motherfucking Kopitar had two fantastic goals, including the first short hander allowed by San Jose this season. Michael Cammalleri and Derek Armstrong added a couple of their own, and emergency starter Barry Brust played brilliantly in net to earn his first NHL win.
In a couple of weeks I'll revisit the good and bad from my season preview and player predictions for the Kings. Mostly bad, I'm guessing, which pretty much matches the Kings so far. But there have been positives, not the least of which is the revelation that has been Anze Kopitar. I've been watching the Kings for probably 25 years, and he's the most physically gifted player at his age I've seen come out of their system in that time. After a slow start, Alexander Frolov has really picked up his game in the last couple months, and if he can sustain it through the rest of the season, it could represent a step forward. The talent has always been there. The consistency hasn't. Dustin Brown has shown offensive flashes, and continues to fearlessly go after the largest trees in the forest. Cammalleri hasn't put up huge numbers, but he's been a solid offensive contributor, and he's just looked better to me this season than last, though the numbers may not bear that out. Let's face it, the Kings aren't very good, but the foundation is there, and so far I have no complaints about Dean Lombardi's rebuilding.
And finally, a couple of words about the shittiest arena I've ever been to, HP Pavilion in San Jose. I've attended hockey games at the Forum, Staples Center, whatever the hell they're calling the arena in Anaheim, the United Center, Joe Louis Arena, some minor league stadium in Toledo, and the arena in San Jose flat out sucks. I went to a game in 1996 or 1997 when the Kings were playing the Sharks. One of my college roommates lived up there, so I flew in and we hung around San Jose before heading to the arena when the doors opened about an hour and a half before the game. We had seats in the first available row of the second deck in the center ice section (which is actually the second row, as it sits right behind the broadcasters). The cool thing was that we got to chat with Mike Allison and Bob Miller before the game. However, at this arena, there is a railing which is in place around the landing at the top of the stairs to keep people from falling into the lower deck. Note the term "railing", as opposed to, say, plexi-glass or something else that you can actually see through. Anyway, despite the modern design tools in the hands of the architects, and despite the primo nature of our seats, we were completely blocked from seeing one entire section of the ice. This is an unacceptable design flaw. There should be no such thing as an obstructed view seat in a modern arena. I'm still bitter about that experience, and it has nothing to do with the fact that Kings got the crap beat out of them that night. So yeah, that place is a piece of crap.
Thursday, December 14, 2006
S F A
Probably the greatest song you'll ever see performed live, should you be so lucky to catch SFA in concert (and I guarantee they'll play it):
Another great when played live:
Actually better live than on the album, at least when they played the demo version about five years ago:
Let's bring it down a notch:
What the Beach Boys would be doing today if they were contemporary, and if there had, like, been another different Beach Boys 35 years ago:
And the coup de fucking gras:
Another great when played live:
Actually better live than on the album, at least when they played the demo version about five years ago:
Let's bring it down a notch:
What the Beach Boys would be doing today if they were contemporary, and if there had, like, been another different Beach Boys 35 years ago:
And the coup de fucking gras:
Monday, December 11, 2006
Sick a week
So I've been sick for pretty much the last week or so, possibly strep throat picked up at a wedding a couple of weeks ago. I've been more or less out of it at work, and I spent the entire weekend sleeping on the couch in front of the TV, not really wanting to move. So that's probably as good an excuse as anything for not posting for a while.
Anyway, here's a quick "around the teams" dealie:
UCLA
On the football side, apparently Pat Cowan is suffering from the effects of a concussion, most likely suffered on the hit by Ray Malacriminal in the fourth quarter of the U$C game, a hit that apparently wasn't helmet to helmet if you're a Pac 10 official. Should be interesting to see what Dorrell does for the Emerald Bowl. I've gotta think that both Cowan and Olson will be getting playing time, and that the job will be open for competition next spring. I still feel that in the long term, Ben Olson will be the quarterback who can take the Bruins further, but Cowan has his strengths (most notably his ability to scramble), and he'll either be a capable back-up, or he'll be a starter for someone else. Though I believe he's taken a red-shirt year, so he would only have one year of eligibility left if he were to transfer. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Next season is a long way away.
The basketball team starts a third consecutive week at #1 after taking down their third ranked opponent of the season. Saturday's game against Texas A&M was physical affair, and neither team looked like they were at the top of their ability, but the Bruins played with more poise down the stretch, made the big shots when they needed to make them, and took care of the basketball. They continue to be awful from the free throw line, and eventually that's going to haunt them if they can't turn it around. Lorenzo Mata's fifth foul with a few minutes remaining was probably a blessing in disguise, as he will probably be a liability on the offensive end late in games. That will be amplified by UCLA's inability to call timeouts after made baskets to switch offense for defense, a result of Ben Howland's philosophy of calling timeouts after made baskets starting about the nine minute mark. I'm not sure why he does that, and I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone ask him about it. But hey, it works, so I'm not going to question it.
Of course, certain anonymous Arizona fans would point out that Arizona is ranked first in Ken Pomeroy's RPI ratings. That's the same Arizona team that has played all of one team who's even receiving votes in either the AP or ESPN polls, and needed some help to beat an Illinois team missing its two best players. Note to Cat fan, there is a reason why they don't set the field for the NCAA tournament in December. The committee might want to see more than wins over New Mexico State, Samford, and Northern Arizona. Props on beating a bad Louisville team well on its way to missing its second straight NCAA tournament.
Illinois
A lackluster second half against UIC led to a victory that was a little too close for comfort. On the plus side, Brian Randle and Jamar Smith were back in the lineup. They still aren't shooting the three very well, and they're turning the ball over too much. They showed that they may have trouble scoring when Warren Carter is doing everything, but as mentioned above, it was Randle's first game back, and his nine points and nine rebounds were a nice spark. As he continues to heal and gets some athleticism back, it should improve the team on both ends. For Jamar Smith, it was nice to see eight free throw attempts, but 1-6 from the field isn't going to cut it. For the first time this season, I was underwhelmed with the play of Calvin Brock. He was due for a bad one. Belmont lies in wait as a tune up for the bragging rights game against Missouri, which looks like one the Illini might drop for the first time this decade. That's definitely a statement game.
Angels
The Angels signed Darren Oliver today, who will replace the last worthless lefthander who held the LOOGY role. Oliver was generally considered to have a fair amount of potential, and was never really any good. He's spent most of his career as a starter, bouncing around Texas, St. Louis, Colorado and a few more stops before landing with the Mets last year in a relief role, during which he had his first above average season since 1999. It's not a long deal, and its not for a ton of money, so I don't really care if it goes bad. What bothers me a bit is that this is the second guy Stoneman has signed coming off a good year preceded by a bunch of awful ones. Anyway, it probably strengthens what on paper should be just about the best bullpen in the AL.
On the offensive front, no real news, which is probably good news at this point. Quite frankly, I don't see the fascination with getting someone like Manny Ramirez. He's a terrific hitter, no doubt about it. In a perfect world, they would acquire Manny and dump GA, opening the DH slot for Manny with the ability to play him in left to rest Vlad and/or Rivera. But that's not going to happen. GA isn't going anywhere, and he's going to be in the lineup, and there's nothing any of us can do about it except hope he finds the fountain of youth that takes him back to 2003. The only real upgrades in this lineup are going to come at first and third base, and those would be expensive, controversial, and possibly unnecessary, depending on how long we wait for Kotchman/McPherson/Morales. Personally, I think the pitching is excellent, and there's enough offense that they can afford to take a wait and see approach at those positions. On top of that, the real options out there on the market have their own question marks, except for maybe A-Rod, who no one expects to leave New York.
Anyway, I'll continue to try to mend, and keep this updated as health/work/time permits.
Anyway, here's a quick "around the teams" dealie:
UCLA
On the football side, apparently Pat Cowan is suffering from the effects of a concussion, most likely suffered on the hit by Ray Malacriminal in the fourth quarter of the U$C game, a hit that apparently wasn't helmet to helmet if you're a Pac 10 official. Should be interesting to see what Dorrell does for the Emerald Bowl. I've gotta think that both Cowan and Olson will be getting playing time, and that the job will be open for competition next spring. I still feel that in the long term, Ben Olson will be the quarterback who can take the Bruins further, but Cowan has his strengths (most notably his ability to scramble), and he'll either be a capable back-up, or he'll be a starter for someone else. Though I believe he's taken a red-shirt year, so he would only have one year of eligibility left if he were to transfer. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Next season is a long way away.
The basketball team starts a third consecutive week at #1 after taking down their third ranked opponent of the season. Saturday's game against Texas A&M was physical affair, and neither team looked like they were at the top of their ability, but the Bruins played with more poise down the stretch, made the big shots when they needed to make them, and took care of the basketball. They continue to be awful from the free throw line, and eventually that's going to haunt them if they can't turn it around. Lorenzo Mata's fifth foul with a few minutes remaining was probably a blessing in disguise, as he will probably be a liability on the offensive end late in games. That will be amplified by UCLA's inability to call timeouts after made baskets to switch offense for defense, a result of Ben Howland's philosophy of calling timeouts after made baskets starting about the nine minute mark. I'm not sure why he does that, and I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone ask him about it. But hey, it works, so I'm not going to question it.
Of course, certain anonymous Arizona fans would point out that Arizona is ranked first in Ken Pomeroy's RPI ratings. That's the same Arizona team that has played all of one team who's even receiving votes in either the AP or ESPN polls, and needed some help to beat an Illinois team missing its two best players. Note to Cat fan, there is a reason why they don't set the field for the NCAA tournament in December. The committee might want to see more than wins over New Mexico State, Samford, and Northern Arizona. Props on beating a bad Louisville team well on its way to missing its second straight NCAA tournament.
Illinois
A lackluster second half against UIC led to a victory that was a little too close for comfort. On the plus side, Brian Randle and Jamar Smith were back in the lineup. They still aren't shooting the three very well, and they're turning the ball over too much. They showed that they may have trouble scoring when Warren Carter is doing everything, but as mentioned above, it was Randle's first game back, and his nine points and nine rebounds were a nice spark. As he continues to heal and gets some athleticism back, it should improve the team on both ends. For Jamar Smith, it was nice to see eight free throw attempts, but 1-6 from the field isn't going to cut it. For the first time this season, I was underwhelmed with the play of Calvin Brock. He was due for a bad one. Belmont lies in wait as a tune up for the bragging rights game against Missouri, which looks like one the Illini might drop for the first time this decade. That's definitely a statement game.
Angels
The Angels signed Darren Oliver today, who will replace the last worthless lefthander who held the LOOGY role. Oliver was generally considered to have a fair amount of potential, and was never really any good. He's spent most of his career as a starter, bouncing around Texas, St. Louis, Colorado and a few more stops before landing with the Mets last year in a relief role, during which he had his first above average season since 1999. It's not a long deal, and its not for a ton of money, so I don't really care if it goes bad. What bothers me a bit is that this is the second guy Stoneman has signed coming off a good year preceded by a bunch of awful ones. Anyway, it probably strengthens what on paper should be just about the best bullpen in the AL.
On the offensive front, no real news, which is probably good news at this point. Quite frankly, I don't see the fascination with getting someone like Manny Ramirez. He's a terrific hitter, no doubt about it. In a perfect world, they would acquire Manny and dump GA, opening the DH slot for Manny with the ability to play him in left to rest Vlad and/or Rivera. But that's not going to happen. GA isn't going anywhere, and he's going to be in the lineup, and there's nothing any of us can do about it except hope he finds the fountain of youth that takes him back to 2003. The only real upgrades in this lineup are going to come at first and third base, and those would be expensive, controversial, and possibly unnecessary, depending on how long we wait for Kotchman/McPherson/Morales. Personally, I think the pitching is excellent, and there's enough offense that they can afford to take a wait and see approach at those positions. On top of that, the real options out there on the market have their own question marks, except for maybe A-Rod, who no one expects to leave New York.
Anyway, I'll continue to try to mend, and keep this updated as health/work/time permits.
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
87-114 versus 35-49
Interesting. Oh well, I must just be imagining things.
For reference, front-court scoring in that time has been 138 for AZ to 118 for IL. While Illinois has been more perimeter oriented, they haven't been almost 2.5 times as perimeter oriented as Arizona. Then again, no coach for Illinois has ever run across the floor and cried like a little bitch when one of the little girls on his team started a scrap that he couldn't finish.
For reference, front-court scoring in that time has been 138 for AZ to 118 for IL. While Illinois has been more perimeter oriented, they haven't been almost 2.5 times as perimeter oriented as Arizona. Then again, no coach for Illinois has ever run across the floor and cried like a little bitch when one of the little girls on his team started a scrap that he couldn't finish.
Ivy
Do they have a new album coming out or something, because I seem to be getting a lot of hits lately from people looking for pictures of Dominique Durand. Not that it's bad way to waste your time, of course, just seems kind of out of the ordinary.
Monday, December 04, 2006
UC Riverside 38; UCLA 61
Well, they didn't quite shock the world, but hey, we led about three minutes into the game, which was pretty impressive. The Highlanders didn't embarass themselves, and for a team with half the guys either dead, sick, or hurt, they acquitted themselves pretty well. Go Highlanders.
Tough game in which to really judge UCLA. With Saturday's events still fresh in everyone's mind, it had to be hard to concentrate, but the Bruins did what they do. No real impressive performances. Double-Double from LRMAM. Poor shooting from beyond the arc. Kind of a sleepy performance. Next test is this weekend versus Texas A&M.
Tough game in which to really judge UCLA. With Saturday's events still fresh in everyone's mind, it had to be hard to concentrate, but the Bruins did what they do. No real impressive performances. Double-Double from LRMAM. Poor shooting from beyond the arc. Kind of a sleepy performance. Next test is this weekend versus Texas A&M.
Sunday, December 03, 2006
Move the Fiest Bowl to Columbus
It's 1997 all over again. You remember 1997, when the coaches gave Tom Osborne and his band of criminals at Nebraska a retirement gift by jumping them over Michigan for a share of the national championship, despite the fact that Nebraska needed an overtime game (which had just been instituted that season), and needed to cheat to win that game (dude kicked a ball into the air that was then caught for a touchdown).
Well, the voters are at it again, ignoring the fact that Michigan is more deserving than Florida simply because they'd prefer not to see a rematch. The basic argument says Michigan had their shot at Ohio State, and they lost, so they shouldn't get another shot. Mind you, these are generally intelligent people making this argument. Do you ever think they'd be in favor of cancelling a super bowl if the teams had met in the regular season? How about if two teams were meeting in the NCAA basketball championship after a regular season match-up? Should we just decide who the winner is based on the previous result?
See, there's this thing called home field/court advantage. The theory is that the team playing on its home field, in front of its home fans, using its own locker rooms, etc, has the advantage over the team that had to travel and play in a hostile environment. It's not a very difficult concept to grasp. For example, noted sports rater Jeff Sagarin pins the home field advantage at somewhere around three points. And guess how many points OSU beat Michigan by in Columbus?
There are also a bunch of revisionists out there who would like to believe that the OSU-UM game was never all that close until the end. Don't buy their bullshit. Until a personal foul was called with about 6 minutes to go, Michigan was going to get the ball back down by four points with a chance to take the lead. On a neutral field, I think each team wins about half the time. And if you think OSU is the country's best team, logic dictates that Michigan has to be number two.
Just another reason the BCS is a joke.
Well, the voters are at it again, ignoring the fact that Michigan is more deserving than Florida simply because they'd prefer not to see a rematch. The basic argument says Michigan had their shot at Ohio State, and they lost, so they shouldn't get another shot. Mind you, these are generally intelligent people making this argument. Do you ever think they'd be in favor of cancelling a super bowl if the teams had met in the regular season? How about if two teams were meeting in the NCAA basketball championship after a regular season match-up? Should we just decide who the winner is based on the previous result?
See, there's this thing called home field/court advantage. The theory is that the team playing on its home field, in front of its home fans, using its own locker rooms, etc, has the advantage over the team that had to travel and play in a hostile environment. It's not a very difficult concept to grasp. For example, noted sports rater Jeff Sagarin pins the home field advantage at somewhere around three points. And guess how many points OSU beat Michigan by in Columbus?
There are also a bunch of revisionists out there who would like to believe that the OSU-UM game was never all that close until the end. Don't buy their bullshit. Until a personal foul was called with about 6 minutes to go, Michigan was going to get the ball back down by four points with a chance to take the lead. On a neutral field, I think each team wins about half the time. And if you think OSU is the country's best team, logic dictates that Michigan has to be number two.
Just another reason the BCS is a joke.
Saturday, December 02, 2006
U$C 9; UCLA 13
I've got the crow cooking in the oven and I'm ready for my meal. WHAT. A. GAME!! DeWayne Walker ought to be enshrined in the UCLA hall of fame right now.
Incredible performance by the Bruins defense. The sack numbers aren't indicative, but they pressured Booty all night, they completely shut down the run, and they were remarkably effective on the corners. I was very worried about Rodney Van versus whoever they planned to run out against him, but the defense held firm. The stopped the criminals on numerous third and short and fourth and short attempts. And the play of the game, Eric McNeal, a tip and interception with 1:10 to go, was absolutely amazing. On defense, it was a total team effort. The front four held their ground, and the other seven, especially Dennis Keyes, who made a lot of big tackles, did their part. Shout out to the linebacker corps as well, as they were supposed to be the weak link this season with the graduations of Justin London and Spencer Havner. They were stout. And Trey Brown, I hardly heard his name mentioned, and if you're a cornerback, that's not a bad thing.
On the offensive side, I wasn't completely wrong. I didn't think UCLA would score enough points with Cowan at the helm, but that was before I knew the defense would play out of their minds. But credit to Cowan, who did all the leg work, literally, on the only drive that led to a touchdown. And he popped back up from a major shot to the head by Ray Malalaualsdfhga, which really isn't a fair fight, since Ray has had all of that prison time to work on his cheating skills. And speaking of blatant penalties that weren't called, here's my post from Bruins Nation:
And I stand by that. the officiating was awful.
But hat's off to Karl Dorrell. Hat's off to all of the Bruins. Hats off to TJ Simers, who has called this victory for the Bruins all week.
As we speak, Arkansas and Florida both seem to be figuring out new ways to lose, so who knows for sure whether Michigan might be in the national championship game, or WILL be in the national championship game. Speaking of Arkansas, their punt returner just fucked up a play inside his own five yard line that led to a Florida touchdown. What is it about Arkansas? 8 years ago, Clint Stoerner basically handed the ball to Tennessee in game that the hogs should have won, and Tennessee ended up winning the national championship. Stupid Arkansas.
Tremendous win for the Bruins. Tremendous win for the program. They stood up to bullies and punched them in the face. Anyway, that's all I can of for now. Just an awesome win. It's been a long time.
Incredible performance by the Bruins defense. The sack numbers aren't indicative, but they pressured Booty all night, they completely shut down the run, and they were remarkably effective on the corners. I was very worried about Rodney Van versus whoever they planned to run out against him, but the defense held firm. The stopped the criminals on numerous third and short and fourth and short attempts. And the play of the game, Eric McNeal, a tip and interception with 1:10 to go, was absolutely amazing. On defense, it was a total team effort. The front four held their ground, and the other seven, especially Dennis Keyes, who made a lot of big tackles, did their part. Shout out to the linebacker corps as well, as they were supposed to be the weak link this season with the graduations of Justin London and Spencer Havner. They were stout. And Trey Brown, I hardly heard his name mentioned, and if you're a cornerback, that's not a bad thing.
On the offensive side, I wasn't completely wrong. I didn't think UCLA would score enough points with Cowan at the helm, but that was before I knew the defense would play out of their minds. But credit to Cowan, who did all the leg work, literally, on the only drive that led to a touchdown. And he popped back up from a major shot to the head by Ray Malalaualsdfhga, which really isn't a fair fight, since Ray has had all of that prison time to work on his cheating skills. And speaking of blatant penalties that weren't called, here's my post from Bruins Nation:
It's been that way all season. They opened the season by becoming the laughing stocks of college football in the Oregon-Oklahoma game. They further embarrassed themselves in the UCLA-Arizona game when Ben Olson was knocked out with a late hit, and Tuitama was knocked out with a helmet to helmet hit (hey, I call 'em like I see 'em)
Fast forward to tonight.
1. I thought the late hit on U$C when Cowan ran for the first down was a bad call. But the helmet to helmet hit by Maladjusted on Cowan was so blatant and so obvious that my six year old niece could have called it. Should have kept that drive alive.
2. In the last minute on the third down play, U$C calls a time-out that they don't have. This wasn't surprising, as most U$C players can neither read nor count. Yet still, the clock stopped for at least ten seconds worth of time that should have come off the clock.
3. With the new rules in college football, the clock is supposed to start after punts when the ball is ready for play. Apparently there's a caveat to that rule that says the ball isn't ready for play until U$C says it is, as the refs stood over the ball for about 20 seconds, and I think Booty was on 2 before they finally ran the clock.
Great win. Awesome performance by the defense. Pathetic display by the women of troy. And flat out embarrassing work by Pac 10 officials.
And I stand by that. the officiating was awful.
But hat's off to Karl Dorrell. Hat's off to all of the Bruins. Hats off to TJ Simers, who has called this victory for the Bruins all week.
As we speak, Arkansas and Florida both seem to be figuring out new ways to lose, so who knows for sure whether Michigan might be in the national championship game, or WILL be in the national championship game. Speaking of Arkansas, their punt returner just fucked up a play inside his own five yard line that led to a Florida touchdown. What is it about Arkansas? 8 years ago, Clint Stoerner basically handed the ball to Tennessee in game that the hogs should have won, and Tennessee ended up winning the national championship. Stupid Arkansas.
Tremendous win for the Bruins. Tremendous win for the program. They stood up to bullies and punched them in the face. Anyway, that's all I can of for now. Just an awesome win. It's been a long time.
Congratulations, Arizona
You beat an unranked team, playing without their two best players, essentially at home, and you still needed the refs to give Carter and Pruitt their fourth fouls with about 18 minutes to play. As a UCLA fan, let me just say that I'm glad this piece of shit team is in the Pac 10, because Arizona is incredibly overrated. Oh, and Cat fan, in case you forgot:
Suck on it.
Suck on it.
What a messed up day
UCLA-U$C, Kings-Ducks, and Illinois-Arizona all on at the same time. Brutal. Worse yet, all three teams I'll be rooting for figure to lose. Ugh.
Friday, December 01, 2006
So, Tomorrow's the Big Game
Well, not THAT Big Game, but a big game nonetheless. UCLA will be getting a great deal of support from somewhat unusual locations like Ann Arbor and Gainesville, while U$C will be getting its typical support from the legions of front-runners that scoop up all that gear when the women of troy are good in football. What does that all mean? Nothing.
But anyway, as predictions go, there's no logical case that can be made for UCLA pulling off the upset in this one. The only way they win is if the score stays low, which isn't altogether impossible, just highly improbable. The big problems, as I see them:
In the end, I'll say the final will be U$C 27; UCLA 13. It's going to be 17-13 with about ten minutes to go, at which point U$C will kick a field goal, get a stop, and score a touchdown to cap the scoring. Right now I'd take U$C and give the points. I hope to hell that doesn't happen, but that's what I feel in my gut.
But anyway, as predictions go, there's no logical case that can be made for UCLA pulling off the upset in this one. The only way they win is if the score stays low, which isn't altogether impossible, just highly improbable. The big problems, as I see them:
- UCLA has one good cornerback, while U$C has two really good receivers, along with a good running game. One and a half if you count Al Verner. But when Rodney Van is in the game, he's going to get torched. He hasn't stopped a good receiver all season, and these are the best receivers he's going to face. They can't match Trey Brown up on one without getting burned by the other, and
- If the Bruins get behind early, the don't have the offense to come back. They'll certainly hold up their end of the bargain on the low scoring, but I just can't see them scoring enough points to win.
In the end, I'll say the final will be U$C 27; UCLA 13. It's going to be 17-13 with about ten minutes to go, at which point U$C will kick a field goal, get a stop, and score a touchdown to cap the scoring. Right now I'd take U$C and give the points. I hope to hell that doesn't happen, but that's what I feel in my gut.
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