The Book on Nick Adenhart

Or rather, the pamphlet, since this is going to be short. It's gonna sound stupid, but right now, the way to get to Nick Adenhart is to get someone, anyone, on base. So far, that hasn't been a problem. He's allowed almost half of the hitters he's faced to reach base safely, 31 (18 hits and 13 walks) out of 63. His WHIP is over 2.50.

There's no way to sugar coat it, he hasn't been very good, although he's shown flashes. In fact, in the first inning of all three major league starts, he hasn't allowed a baserunner. Even better, seven of those nine outs have either been ground outs or strike outs. Actually, he's retired the first four hitters in order in every start (five in the Royals start).

But in each of those starts, he's allowed a man to reach base in the second inning, and that's where the trouble starts. He's given up nine runs in those second innings, despite the advantage of having retired the leadoff hitter. And the reason he's running into trouble is because he has not been able to successfully pitch with runners on base. Blame it on jitters perhaps, but more likely it's a mechanical flaw that comes from pitching out of the stretch. He's a little wild as it is. He gets worse with runners on.

Adenhart has faced 33 hitters with the bases empty. Seven of them have reached via the hit, and five via the walk, for an OBP against of .364, which isn't great, but isn't awful. Once a batter reaches, however, he goes from adequate to much worse. He's faced 30 batters with runners on base, and allowed an alarming 19 of them to reach. That's OBP against of .633! In other words, once one man gets on base, almost two of the next three are also likely to reach base. That's nuts. Keep in mind that he's not a strikeout pitcher to begin with, and he only has four strikeouts in his 12 major league innings, but none of those have come with runners on base, so he's not helping himself out once he gets into trouble (though he has induced three hitters to ground into double plays).

Those numbers are pretty distressing, or they would be for any other pitcher, and of course all of the caveats about sample size still apply. But first of all, he's only 21, so to the extent these are a function of nerves, he has plenty of time to learn to deal with them. Second, he was only slated to make three starts, assuming the healthy return of John Lackey, so he's got some things to work on, and he can do it in the minors. Perhaps most importantly, the one thing he doesn't do is give up home runs. He's now pitched 404 innings in professional baseball, and has seen only ten of his pitches leave the yard in fair territory. That means he can get away with allowing a few more hitters to reach over the course of a season, because he's not susceptible to the back breaking three run homer. But he simply can't allow the number of baserunners he's allowed at the major league level. Shockingly, he's actually 1-0 in his major league career, thanks to the 23 runs the Angels have scored in his starts.

I have no reason to believe that with some additional minor league seasoning, he won't turn into solid, if not spectacular major league pitcher, and he has a great deal of upside. His minor league numbers compare favorably to Brandon Webb. Not that he'll be that successful, but if he be 75% of a Brandon Webb, that's a damn good major league starter. I think the Nick Adenhart experiment was a success in that it will eventually make him a better pitcher. I could see him being a fixture in the rotation as early as next year if there's a spot, and as we're learning from the current health situation, there's always a spot.

Where I've been

In short, working, traveling, playing golf, and attending birthday parties for one year olds. Oh, and drinking.

So that's part of the reason I haven't been writing. I was in Atlanta last week, and travel itself kept me from watching Tuesday's game. The hotel I was at has crappy internet service, so it's virtually impossible to watch a game over the computer, so that took out Wednesday. Friday was travel back from Atlanta, and meeting up with drunk friends after the Cubs game (which they attended and I didn't). Saturday was golf, birthday party, and drinking with a different set of friends. Sunday's game was pathetic and made me not want to write.

Actually, I did see a game Wednesday night. I headed down State Highway 400 from Alpharetta to Atlanta to see the Braves play the Padres. Funny that almost every Padres game I've seen in the last 20 years has been against Braves, going back to 1988 when I was the Braves bat boy for one game in San Diego. I saw a couple more at the Murph in the interim, and this was my first game at the Ted. Nice park. Parked for free since I got there in the second inning. Paid $20 to a scalper for a ticket and sat in the general vicinity of that seat. It was not by any means a full building, so you could more or less sit wherever you wanted down the lines. Enjoyed a couple beers and some peanuts.

From my vantage point, it appears you can only weather so many injuries, especially when Vlad is not hot. Lackey and Escobar? They can manage. Kendrick? They can still put runs up. Add Figgins to that, and Maicer, and you're starting to run into tough sledding. They need Figgins back ASAP, and if Kendrick can come back this week, it will be a nice boost to the offense. I like the experience that Rodriguez and Wood are getting, as it's always nice to know what you should expect when it becomes time to stick at the big league level, but those guys need to play every day against pitchers they can hit more consistently, and the Angels need their best hitters back in the lineup.

Also, Justin Speier has been less than impressive lately. Tonight's the first of four with the White Sox, which means I'll need to sync the radio from the net with the video from the local station, because I can't listen to the douchebags who call the Sox games.

Inauspicious Debuts - with a bunch of updates

As I write this, the Angles trail Oakland 4-0 in the second inning. After a nice start, Nick Adenhart, making his major league debut, gave up a hit, four walks, and another hit, which led to those four runs.

It's times like these I like to recall Ervin Santana's major league debut. On May 17, 2005, Ervin Santana faced the Cleveland Indians in Cleveland. He gave up a triple to Grady Sizemore, a double to Coco Crisp, a Single to Travis Hafner, and home run to Ben Broussard. He gave up the cycle to the first four batters he faced in his career. Since that game, he's 40-29, and that inlcudes an awful year last year, plus he's only 25.

The moral of the story? Stuff happens. Adenhart will be fine.

Oh, and now it's 4-1, thanks to Jack "Glove-butcher" Cust.

Update: Now it's 5-4 Angels, thanks to Cust and a lack of mental toughness on the part of the Duke. Back to you, Nick.

Further Updated: The Angels bullpen proves that if you're the Angels brass, it's pretty much damned if you do, damned if you don't when it comes to the Angels seventh starter position.

Updated again: This is what I wrote on BTF in response to all of the doom and gloom:
Ervin Santana - Major League Debut: 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 HR, and he gave up the cycle to the first four batters he faced.

Ervin Santana - Next Major League Start: 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1BB, 7 K. That was against the eventual World Champion White Sox.

Something tells me that when a kid who is a top prospect is called up and stuggles in his debut, it's not the end of the world. It's May fer chrissakes. Can we please pull back from the ledge?

[quote]I don't know if he would have done any better if he had 4 days rest, but this looks really bad, shortsighted, and stupid.[/quote]Ervin Santana - [url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE200505170.shtml]Major League Debut[/url]: 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 HR, and he gave up the cycle to the first four batters he faced. Ervin Santana - [url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ANA/ANA200505230.shtml]Next Major League Start[/url]: 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1BB, 7 K. Something tells me that when a kid who is a top prospect is called up and stuggles in his debut, it's not the end of the world. It's May fer chrissakes. Can we please pull back from the ledge?
OR

Catching up

Last night's game notwithstanding, I think we can look back and say that the Angels had a pretty successful road trip. If you could pick one player who was the key to their success, it would probably be Casey Kotchman. All he did over the six games in Boston and Detroit was put up a 400/520/700 line, with two homers, four RBIs, and 5 walks. His six homers was good enough to tie for the league lead through the end of the trip. He continues to be their best hitter, with a line of 326/392/565, including last night's 0-fer. And that's before taking his gold glove defense into account. Despite all of the complaints about his proclivity for injury and illness, all of the rumors of his eventual trade from Anaheim, all of the attempts to sign a "slugging" first baseman to replace him, he's emerging as the best hitter on the team. All of this goes to show that people could stand to be a bit more patient. Very few guys enter the league and kick ass at 22 or 23 years of age.

Their numbers on the recent trip weren't wonderful, but the catcher spot continues to pleasantly surprise. Last year, the Angels got 14 home runs from that position, with a line of 229/299/372. That's over 162 games. This year, Napoli and Mathis have nine homers, and have combined for a line of 263/323/589. They're actually getting offensive production from the catcher position.

Chone Figgins has come back to earth a bit, but he hasn't plummeted. He's still hitting .314, and he had a pretty wretched trip, but he's got 18 walks in 129 plate appearances (one HBP), for an ISO OBP of .105. That's excellent for a leadoff hitter, especially one who will hit around .300.

Hokey Joe continues to impress, and Ervin Santana has been nothing short of outstanding so far. The Angels' fifth and sixth starters have combined to go 8-0 with a 2.75 ERA. They're allowing barely more than a baserunner per inning, they're striking out almost two and a half hitter for every walk, and they're keeping the ball in the park (6 homers in 68.2 innings). And to think but for the injuries, one of those guys would have started in the pen. They've nicely covered for shaky starts by Weaver and Garland.

And to close it out, the front end of the bullpen has been getting the job done as well. Despite shaky starts to the season, Justin Speier, Scot Shields, and Frankie Rodriguez all have it going. Frankie has saved his last six games, and has allowed four hits and two walks in that time. Three of those hits came in one appearance. Shields has been even better, allowing 9 baserunners in his last 10 innings, and two runs in mop-up work against the Red Sox.

Critics of the Angels bullpen have been silent lately, and all of the sudden, re-signing Frankie is looking more and more like a priority. A quick glance at the league's top closers shows a group that are either not on the market (Rivera, Papelbon, Jenks, Cordero), or not reliable (Sherrill, Isringhausen, Gagne). There's a reason Coco got that big contract over the off-season. And the only other reliable 9th inning guy on the market (Joe Nathan) is seven years older than Frankie. Remember, the comparison is not what Frankie is vs. what we'd like Frankie to be. It's between what he is vs. what else is out there (including going in house). If you're going to break the bank for Gary Matthews Jr., how do not do it for a franchise hero who is still one of the most effective players in the league at his position?

So a tough loss last night, but hopefully they got that performance out of the way early. Kendrick is set to return soon, as is John Lackey. And despite the early season loss of 37 wins from the previous year, the Angels still sit in a pretty good position as we head into May.

Checking in

Blogging will probably return to its normal, infrequent frequency sometime soon. I really want to say something about the Red Sox series, but between a busy week at work, a couple of concerts, and heavy practicing for the state Mid-Amateur championship, I've been a little busy and a lot tired over the last week or so.

But damn, the catcher and first base positions are kicking some serious ass right now, and the pen appears to have righted itself. I was going to call Rob out, but he did it to himself, so no need. Now let's get the Tigers, who have been scoring a lot of runs lately. Look for very high scoring games in this series.

New UCLA Post

I have a new post up at the SoCal Sports Hub on the decisions of Love, Westbrook, Mbah A Moute, and possibly Collison and Shipp to declare for the draft. Here's an excerpt:

Yesterday, freshman Kevin Love and sophomore Russel Westbrook declared their intentions to enter the NBA draft. Both have been projected to go anywhere from the lottery to the late first round. It has been widely rumored that juniors Darren Collison and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will do the same. Word is that Josh Shipp is also considering going this route. When the season started, it was generally assumed that Love was one and done, and Collison was also probably gone after this year. Both had their ups and downs, and we can all look for faults in their game, but at the end of the day, nothing has really changed since those pre-season assessments. In the meantime, Westbrook showed the athleticism and scoring ability in starter minutes that had us all salivating after watching him in limited minutes last year. In doing so, he turned himself into a likely first rounder, and possibly lottery pick. Shipp and Mbah A Moute didn’t have tremendous seasons. Shipp likely regressed a bit. But their decisions, should they decide to enter the draft, don’t surprise me one bit.

These decisions have prompted a number of critical comments from UCLA fans. They generally fall into a few categories. I’m going to attempt to categorize those complaints and deal with them in this post.

Click here for the rest. I'm going to be do some more occasional posting over there in addition my stuff here.

Trends

Chone Figgins has hit in nine straight games, and his batting average has been barely affected. After the rash of walks to start the season, he's slowed down a bit. He's now averaging one walk every 5.7 plate appearances, which is still pretty damn good. We can talk all night about how they need production out of Vlad, GA, Hunter, etc., but if Figgins can get on base four times out of ten all year, it's really going to make the offense go, assuming he's not immediately eliminated by Matthews every time.

Scot Shields has allowed one base runner in his last four outings (3.2 innings), and none in his last three. He's also struck out four in that span. Worries over the arm troubles that landed him on the DL to start the season, well, they aren't so worrying anymore. Beyond the numbers, he's looked fairly sharp.

Another big series with the Mariners, but I think last weekend soaked up most of the early season drama. They should be able to just relax and play baseball for a while. Well see tonight whether Hokie Joe can keep it going.

Angels Sweep Rangers

Finally a bit of a return to normalcy after the way the Rangers took the Angels apart in the second half of last season. They got a decent start out of Ervin Santana on Monday, who looked like the road version of last year's model in the first inning. From there he settled down and tossed six scoreless innings before turning it over the bullpen.

Yesterday they got a less than adequate start out of Dustin Moseley, who gave up four runs in four innings, and really did himself in with five walks. It was the type of start that normal teams expect out of a fifth starter. The good news for the Angels is that Moseley is their seventh starter. The key for the April Angels is to get this team into May without a lot of damage done so that when Lackey and (God willing) Escobar return, they'll be poised for the mid-season run that puts the division away in late July/early August.

Don't look now, but over the last two days, the bullpen has provided seven innings of earned run free baseball, the only blemish coming when Erick Aybar's throwing error in the eight inning on Monday led somewhat indirectly to Frankie Rodriguez's save opportunity. Speaking of Frankie, two innings, two base runners (both walks), two strikeouts, and two scoreless saves, yesterday's being of the 1-2-3 variety. They actually looked like the real Angels bullpen this series. And don't forget Scot Shields' 1.2 IP, 0 baserunners, 2 Ks performance in the two games. It's no secret that the bullpen is going to be essential to the Angels' success this year, and if they can get the 7-8-9 inning guys going, things may turn out OK.

On the offensive side of things, Chone Figgins picked up three more hits in nine at bats, and saw his average drop 10 points. After two straight games without a free pass, he picked up number 13 in 69 plate appearances yesterday. His ability to get on base (currently a .507 clip) is probably THE reason the Angels have the top scoring offense in the league to this point, well, that and the fact that they've played as many or more games than everyone else. Mike Napoli (four homers) continues to pour on the power when he's in the lineup, and Casey "he'll top out at 20-25 homers" Kotchman also hit his fourth of the season. Maybe the experts are right, but my gut tells me he's got 35 homer power in him. Maybe not this year, but at some point.

Next up will be a contrast in styles as the Angels head home to take on the surprising Royals, who aren't plating many runners (3.5 per game), but are allowing even fewer to cross (just over 3 per). Fortunately they miss Brian Bannister and Zack Grienke, but Gil Meche is better than his ERA shows to this point (though Brett Tomko likely isn't). The Angels counter with Jered Weaver and Jon Garland, who could use a game against a low scoring opponent just about now. Just a quick two game set before another showcase series with Seattle this weekend. It would be nice to see them keep the momentum going.

One of Three

I think we all wish things would have gone a little differently in Seattle over the weekend, but them's the breaks, and when all is said and done, 1-2 in their building isn't all that awful.

Cause for concern:

• Two straight poor outings from Jon Garland.
• The bullpen continues to be less than impressive.
• Nobody seems to be able to get Raul Ibanez out.
• Gary Matthews Jr. is an out-making machine.
• Despite the flood of offense so far this season, the Angels sit just one game over .500.
• Howie Kendrick can't seem to stay healthy.
• The defense is at times not so good.
  

Cause for optimism:

• Lackey's throwing again.
• Frankie's velocity was up a bit yesterday, even though his location wasn't great. Maybe getting guys back into their normal roles will help everyone calm down a bit.
• Raul Ibanez doesn't play for the Rangers.
• I'm sorry, I can't think of anything positive about Matthews.
• Howie, when healthy, is on fire.
  

The strength of the offense actually may be sustainable. No, I don't expect Figgins to hit .400, or Howie to hit .500, or Kotchman to stay as hot as he's been. But I also expect a little more out of Vlad than we've gotten so far, and I expect those three to hit all season.

In Figgins' case, I think we're getting past the point where we can call his success over the last four and a half months of regular season action a fluke. I've mentioned before that I think somewhere between .300 and .310 is a fairly conservative, yet realistic estimate of what he can do this year, and if the plate discipline (12 walks in 50 plate appearances) is real, and I suspect it is (to an extent - I think one walk every 8-9 appearances is a realistic goal), then he could be poised for a very fine season.

Kendrick is Kendrick, and if he's in the lineup, he's going to hit. He doesn't seem to be a guy that pitchers can figure out for very long. As he makes his way around the league a few times, they may catch up to him a bit, but he's had sustained success at the lower levels, and he just seems like the type that will be able to adjust to what the pitchers at this level will do.

As for Kotchman, the average isn't a surprise. I don't expect .370, but it's a small sample, and I do expect him, if healthy, to stay north of .300 all year, and if things break right, .325 or so isn't out of the question. As for the three homers, I'm not surprised. I know the pundits don't expect him to ever show a ton of power, and maybe their right. But what I saw last year and this are: 1) a lot of doubles, which usually portend decent power numbers; and 2) although he didn't hit a lot of homers last year, many of them were LONG home runs. He wasn't hitting shots that scraped the wall. He crushed a few of them deep into the right field seats, which isn't easy to do in Anaheim. Already this year he killed one in Minnesota, AND he hit one out in Seattle that was on a pretty good pitch, not a pitch a guy with little power should have been able to hit out. The predictions are that he'll top out around 25 homers. I think we may see that many, or more, this year assuming good health (a big assumption).

The Angels routinely have trouble firing on all cylinders at this point in the season. They muddle along doing some things well and other things not so well until they hit a summer stretch where they start to assert themselves. That's pretty much what I see happening this year as well.

0 for 2. Series Finale Tomorrow

Until then, enjoy some Paisley Underground. This be the Long Ryders. Unfortunately, there is a severe lack of "Here Comes That Train Again" and "The Light Gets In The Way" on youtube.

Looking For Lewis and Clark


Lights of Downtown


Gunslinger Man

10 Games In

After ten games and three series, the Angels sit at 6-4. It's been a bit of a roller coaster start, with standout performances on the mound by Joe Saunders and Jon Garland, and awful perfomances from Dustin Moseley and......Jon Garland. A couple of blow out losses have pushed the team ERA up a bit, but for the most part, all things considered, the starters have been fairly decent. Ervin Santana has been solid in two starts and has a 1-0 record to show for it. Jered Weaver and Joe Saunders have also tossed two quality starts. When John Lackey returns and replaces Dustin Moseley, the staff will look very strong.

The bullpen, on the other hand, has been shaky at best, not exactly a surprise. Darren O'Day is the only reliever with an ERA under three, but he's pitched a little worse than that suggests, allowing nearing two baserunners per inning. Frankie is hobbled, and it's affecting his velocity. Shields is still trying to work his way back. Speier had a chance to show everyone that maybe letting Frankie walk wouldn't be such a bad decision, and promptly gave up a two run bomb to Travis Hafner. Best case, Frankie gets healthy, Shields works to full strength, and this becomes a strong unit again, but for now, the bullpen is a weak link.

Offensively, the punchless Angels are tied for the AL lead in homers with 14, four coming from newly acquired Torii Hunter, including a walk-off grand slam the other night. Six different Angels have homered, and five have done it more than once. Hindered by a slow start last season, Chone Figgins is showing that his hot finish was no fluke. His 14 hits leads the AL, and don't look now, folks, but he has eight, count 'em EIGHT walks. He trails only Luke Scott in OBP, and that's in 20 more plate appearances. Of course everything in this post comes with the sample size caveat, but if the plate discipline is real, he could have a tremendous season. Staying on the infield, Howie Kendrick is showing that both his ability to hit for average, and his propensity for injury are real. His 429/467/571 start is terrific, but he's already missing time because of a hand injury sustained on a pitch that didn't even hit him. He's looked very good on defense as well. Meanwhile, Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis, while getting it done in the field, have left their good springs in Tempe and are struggling at the plate.

In the outfield, Juan Rivera and Reggie Willits can't be happy the way things are shaking out, and you have to figure that at least one of them will be gone in a couple of months for bullpen help. But you just never know who is going to get injured, especially with four aging starters in the current outfield/DH rotation. The two have four at bats between them. The rest of the outfield has nine home runs collectively. Hunter, Matthews, and Guerrero have combined for seven of those homers, and all are hitting .300 or above. Behind the dish, Mike Napoli's underwhelming .231/.286 is nicely offset by his three homers (one a grand slam) and .615 slugging percentage. Jeff Mathis isn't going to hit, but he can play defense.

So at this point of the season, there haven't been any big surprises, outside of Figgins' sudden ability to take a walk or eight. Over his career, he generally draws about one walk every ten or eleven plate appearances, which isn't bad, but not ideal for a lead off hitter. This year he's up to one every five or six. I don't think anyone expects him to maintain that pace, but if he can keep it around 1/8 or so, that would be a fantastic ISO OBP, combined with a batting average around .300, that would put his OBP around .400 or above, a mark he's never surpassed in a season, not even last year when he hit .330. That's where it all starts. If he can jumpstart the offense like that, the Angels will be in very good shape, especially with a lineup that doesn't really give a pitcher a break until the 8th spot, and even then, you'll mostly have Mike Napoli and his power in that lineup position.

A big series up in Seattle starts tomorrow night. The games themselves aren't particularly important (though every game is somewhat important), but right now, the Mariners are trying to convince themselves that they're the team to beat in the West. If the Angels can go up into their building and take a couple of victories, it could help to sow the seeds of doubt that still linger around the Mariners. If the Mariners come away with a sweep, it will be a big boost of confidence that can take them through the early portion of their schedule. Both teams have their top three starters lined up, and both teams have bullpens that are really struggling, so it should be a very competitive series.

UPDATED: On The Plus Side, UCLA Will Get Younger

UPDATE: Apparently the reports are false, for now. Love and Collison both say they haven't even talked to their families about their decisions yet, and as such, no decisions have been made. Either someone has made something up, or was bamboozled. Still, I'll leave this up in the event that a week from now, this information becomes relevant again.

Kevin Love? Gone
Darren Collison? Gone
Russel Westbrook? Leaning towards going.

And that's just the beginning.

According to both the L.A. Times and Brian Dohn, UCLA will likely take the floor next year without their three best players, which really isn't a surprise to anyone who's been following the team for the past few months. Love and Collison were expected to go before the season even started, and Westbrook's draft status has been on the rise all season.

As Nestor pointed out, there is a scenario in which up to eight players on this year's roster could be gone. Lorenzo Mata-Real is graduating. LRMAM will likely put his name into the draft and get evaluated before making a decision to hire an agent. Alfred Aboya has hinted that he may not return after earning his degree this year. Nikola Dragovic, hurting for playing time, may head back to Europe. And finally, Josh Shipp may decide that four years and the exit of the rest of his draft class is a sign that he's been around long enough.

So what happens if all of this comes to pass? Well, Ben Howland picked a good year to bring in a number one recruiting class, and he may not be done. There are some big man prospects that could fill out the class. It means that Jrue Holiday, Malcolm Lee, and Jerime Anderson are going to see a ton of playing time in their first year, which will be good for Lee and Anderson, since they're the only two likely to be back in 2009-2010. Sucks for Holiday, who will be around in a rebuilding year, then gone.

So next year's team will be interesting to watch, and great to root for, but I wouldn't expect too much. It took the Farmar, Afflalo, Shipp, Mata class two years to reach the championship game. UCLA will be down, but not out. Best of luck to all of those Bruins, whatever they decide.

I Remember How the Darkness Tripled: UCLA Bows Out Again

I've gotta say, I took this loss surprisingly well, probably because I was sober (unlike last year), and because even though the Bruins made a run or two, I never really felt like they were in the game. In all of their big comebacks this season, there was a sense of 'what the hell is going on' when the opponent was building it's lead. Those were games in which the opponents didn't look that great, but the Bruins clearly were simply not playing well. I didn't get that feeling on Saturday. I got the feeling that the Bruins were playing poorly because Memphis was forcing them to play poorly, and subsequently, I never really expected the big run that would make the game close.

For the third straight year, the Bruins fell victim to matchup problems. Derrick Rose was simply too big and strong for Darren Collison, and Rose was their smallest guy most of the time. Memphis drove to the basket very well, and created a lot of help situations that led to offensive rebounds and easy put backs. They torched the Bruins in transition. The Tigers' superior athleticism and ability to finish was really the Bruins' undoing on the defensive end.

When they had the ball, UCLA had a hard time holding onto it. They turned it over 12 times, often with sloppy plays or lapses in concentration. James Keefe dropped a rebound out of bounds with no Tiger within 50 feet. Russel Westbrook dropped on in bounds pass off his foot. Darren Collison stepped out of bounds on what could have been a fast break, one of his five turnovers in a game he'd really just like to forget. He made only one of nine shots, a floater at the end of the first half that pulled the Bruins to within three, giving us all hope at halftime. Only Russell Westbrook, with 22 points on 10-19 shooting made more than half his shots, and he did nothing to lower his NBA stock.

In the end, Memphis was simply more athletic and longer. I won't say they're more talented, because UCLA is very talented, but the matchups were simply not in their favor, and they had to play a top notch game to beat Memphis. As it turns out, they played one of their worst. But with a couple of days to reflect, I'd like to put a couple of myths to rest:

1. Ben Howland does not need to do anything different. He's reached the final four for the third straight year. From 1981 to his hiring in 2003, UCLA reached two final fours. He's doing something right, and in a one and done tournament, too much emphasis is placed on one game. He doesn't need to teach a zone. He doesn't need to run a different offense. He doesn't need to manage time outs differently. He just needs to keep doing what he's doing. And you can argue that he needs better athletes, but can really argue with the guy who's bringing in the top recruiting class in the country next season?
   
2. Kevin Love and Darren Collison are no more or less ready for the NBA than they were before the Memphis game. If you're draft expert, and you had these guys in your lottery/top 20 before the game, and have now dropped them, you're a really crappy draft expert. I'm not trying to argue that they are or aren't lottery picks. But you've had an entire season to evaluate them, and you've essentially boiled it down to one game. You're either wrong now, or you weren't doing your job back then, but either way, just stop it. You're embarrassing yourself. That goes for the all of the amateur draft experts on message boards across the country. Alex Rodriguez doesn't stop being a hall of famer after a bad week. These guys are the same players everyone was drooling over a week ago.
   

And so ends another season of Bruin basketball. We'll all wait with anxiety for the decisions from Love, Collison, and Westbrook. We'll all look forward to welcoming Jrue Holiday, Jerime Anderson, Malcolm Lee, and Drew Gordon. We'll all hope for an off season of improvement from Chace Stanback, and for the return to health of Mike Roll. But it was fun five month ride. Congratulations to UCLA on another successful season.

Thoughts on Tomorrow's Final Four

I tend to be a pessimist when I'm around optimistic people, and I tend to be an optimist when I'm around naysayers. So there are groups of Bruins fans out there who should probably temper their enthusiasm, but some of the local scribes should probably watch some tapes of UCLA's exits the last two years.

Memphis, like Florida, is long and athletic. They have a great point guard, and come at you with a lot of size. But there are two key differences between the teams that will take the floor tomorrow and the teams that played the last two years:

The first is that there is no Corey Brewer. He was the true matchup nightmare for the Bruins the last two years, and not surprisingly, he led the Gators in scoring in last year's national semi. He was a 6'9" wing player who dwarfed just about any Bruin who tried to guard him. He created all sorts of problems both in the paint and from beyond the arc, going 4-5 from three. Chris Douglas-Roberts will not be easy to guard, and he's the most Brewer-esque player on the Tigers. But he'll likely be guarded by UCLA's best and most athletic defender. And while he'll take the three, he prefers to take the ball to the basket. If Westbrook can slow him down on the perimeter, and funnel him towards UCLA's interior players, they may be able to neutralize him somewhat. They aren't going to stop him, but they may be able to slow him down. And while Memphis is strong inside, they aren't as skilled as Florida was in the paint last year.

The second huge difference is Kevin Love. Last year, Aaron Afflalo was limited by early (questionable) fouls. Without him, the offense essentially relied on Darren Collison and Josh Shipp. Shipp responded with a solid 18 points, and Afflalo chipped in 17, many after the game had already been decided. This year a great deal of the offense still comes from the guards, but the addition of Love provides the Bruins an opportunity to look for easier baskets when shots aren't falling, and keeps opponents from focusing all of their efforts on the perimeter. In last year's game, early in the second half, the Bruins trailed the Gators 32-28 following a Mike Roll three pointer. Six minutes later, they trailed 49-32. In that stretch, they missed five jumpers and three layups. They didn't have an interior threat to turn to when the going got tough on the outside. The balance they bring this year should keep them from going long stretches without scoring.

There are other factors as well. First is the experience the Bruins bring. It's a big week for these kids, and though they're used to being on TV and being hounded by the press, the final four is a bit of a different animal. UCLA's experience with the week and its demands should be a plus. Second, UCLA has time and again found the ability to overcome large second half deficits. There was a sense last year (rightly so) that when Florida went on their run that the Bruins were done for. I'm not so sure that will be the case this year. They seem to find a way to lock down on defense, and slowly chip away at a lead until it's gone. They won't be rattled.

Memphis is a great team, to be sure, and I'm not going to predict a result one way or the other. But I think UCLA is in a much better position now than they were last year.

Angels 5; Twins 4

Another one run game with the Twins, another win, and all of the gnashing of teeth after the season opening loss is forgotten for another day. Matthews, Hunter, and Napoli left the yard. Ervin looked fine, but ran into some trouble in the sixth. Oliver looked a little less than great. Speier appeared to show a little rust as well. Another double for Howie, who has a hit in every game so far this year.

The Angels almost made it out of this series without allowing a home run, while Ervin Santana gave the Angels starting staff their fourth quality start in as many attempts. Everyone wants Lackey back as soon as possible, myself included. And we all want Kelvim back period, but who knows how long that will take. Just the same, it looks like the healthy guys are out to prove that they can hold down the fort until the reinforcements arrive.

Three errors in the series, one on a poor Figgins throw today. Two in yesterday's game, an Aybar bobble and a Mathis heave into center field. But aside from that, and a couple of opening day mistakes in left field, the defense has looked pretty good. They turned seven double plays in the series, and that's one way to increase the number of quality starts.

No one is expecting the Twins to set the world on fire, so it's not as if this 3-1 series win is grounds for a party, but at the end of the day, the Angels are left with four more home games than road games, and they have a nice jump on a good road record.

To sum up, the pitching and defense have been great. The hitting has been adequate. Good power for their first series. Good starts for Figgins, Kotchman, and Kendrick, and Matthews, probably the four most important pieces to the offensive puzzle this year (I'm penciling good years from Vlad and Hunter). An all around nice way to start the season.

Angels 1; Twins 0 - Angels now over .500

Joe Saunders came into Spring not even assured of a starting job, though it's safe to say he had the inside track. A solid spring, and two injuries later, and he slid into the #3 role, where he delivered an ace-like performance. He needed only 80 pitches, 52 of the strikes, to complete eight innings, striking out four while only walking one. Had it not been for an opening two games that hadn't required a closer, he might have been allowed to go the distance. But Mike Scioscia needed to get Frankie Rodriguez some work, and after a brief hiccup to start the ninth, he got a little lucky when Carlos Gomez decided to try a two strike bunt that failed for the first out. He induced a double play grounder from pinch hitter Joe Mauer, the seventh double play hit into by the Twins in the first three games of the season.

Nick Blackburn was the hard luck loser, and no doubt he's being snatched up in fantasy leagues as we speak. He allowed five hits, struck out six, and only walked one. His only mistake came in the seventh inning, when he allowed the Angels to score without the ball leaving the infield. Howie Kendrick reached on an infield single to short, moved to second on Jeff Mathis' sac bunt, to third on Erick Aybar's ground out, and pounced at the opportunity to score on Blackburn's wild pitch.

Torii Hunter delivered his first two hits as an Angel, one of which (8th inning) should have delivered an insurance run, but a cautious Gary Matthews held up at third base, and one batter later, Casey Kotchman grounded into a double play ending the half inning.

So the Angels go for the series victory today, and it would be nice to leave the dome with three victories in hand. It's always a tough place for the Angels to play, and it seems like they've played a very high percentage of close games with the Twins over the last six or seven years. Joe Saunders, for his part, leave town with the highest game score of the young season, and he'll lead the league (tied) in ERA for a few days. Now we'll see how Ervin reacts to a day game (horror) on the road (horror of horrors). He's got a chance to make a statement.

Angels 9; Twins 1

Well, that ought to quiet the chicken littles for at least a day. I actually missed most of this one due to a hockey game, but I breezed through the recording from my DVR to watch the run scoring, which means I didn't take a lot of time to witness the greatness that was Jon Garland. His K/9 right now is 0.00, which means he sucks according to most people I read. Of course, if you can get through eight innings, allowing only six baserunners, two of whom were eliminated via the double play (grounded into by guys you failed to strike out), you'll probably have a good day. Pitchers can control or fail to control three things, so says the theory. They can or cannot strike guys out, they can or cannot not walk guys, and they can or cannot keep the ball in the ball park. Do two of those things well, and we'll let the third thing take care of itself.

On the other side of the dish, every Angel starter aside from Torii Hunter had a hit, and even Hunter reached base safely via the HBP. Mike Napoli and Casey Kotchman both found the seats, Howie Kendrick didn't walk, but did deliver three hits (don't get excited, though, because he doesn't walk so he's not that good). Vlad is becoming Vlad again, with three hits, four total bases, and three RBIs. GA delivered his first three hits of the season as well.

1-1, with 160 to go.

April Fools Joke, or Greatest Day in the History of the Blogiverse?

Fafblog. Back? Goddamn, I hope so.

Angels 2;Twins 3

Well, they weren't going to win all of them. Jered Weaver threw too many pitches and struggled to stay ahead at times. The big bats provided absolutely nothing. Garret Anderson misplayed two balls in left field. And that's the kind of thing that happens on opening day.

I'm not really going to worry about this one too much. The Angels have struggled for years against soft tossing junkballers, which is basically what Livan Hernandez has become. He threw only 84 pitches in seven innings, and far too often the Angel hitters got themselves out. On the flipside, Jered Weaver took 106 pitches to get through six and third, 41 of those were out of the strike zone. He did strike out five against two walks (the Angels walked zero times, surprise surprise). Weaver oscillated between sharp and shaky. Add that to the poor defense on the two popups to shallow left, and the Twins got just enough.

There were a couple bright spots. Darren Oliver came in and got two outs on four pitches. Casey Kotchman singled three times, and Chone Figgins added two hits of his own.

Another close one with the Twins. This one didn't go the Angels' way. That's why there's a tomorrow.

Opening Damn Day!

How about I revisit the Spring Training Preview, with new comments in Halo Red:

Brian Ward asked me to put something together about the Angels for his Spring Training blog. They're getting this together for every team. My contribution is below. Feel free to tell me why I'm an idiot. (Please don't call me an idiot). FWIW, I was just on a conference call today where we made plans to go to a client location in Phoenix the first week of March. Spring Training was the first thing that popped into my head. (We didn't get to any games, but I drove past Diablo Stadium like three times a day).

Location: Tempe Diablo Stadium
Pitchers and Catcher Report: February 14th
First game: February 28th
Schedule

Projected Opening Day Lineup

1. Chone Figgins (3B)
2. Howie Kendrick (2B)
3. Vladimir Guerrero (RF)
4. Torii Hunter (CF)
5. Garret Anderson (DH)
6. Casey Kotchman (1B)
7. Gary Matthews Jr. (LF)
8. Mike Napoli (C)
9. Erick Aybar/Maicer Izturis (SS)

(We'll see about the batting order, but the rest looks spot on. Napoli and Izturis have won the opening day nods at their positions).

Projected Rotation

1. John Lackey
2. Kelvim Escobar*
3. Jered Weaver
4. Jon Garland
5. Joe Saunders

*Expected to open the season on the DL.

Obviously Lackey and Escobar are on the DL, possibly for a long, long time in the case of Escobar. But the other four all had solid springs, and if they can weather the storm until Lackey comes back to full strength, they should be fine. I would not expect Escobar back this year.

Bullpen

Long – Ervin Santana
Situational – Darren Oliver, Dustin Moseley, Jason Bulger, Chris Bootcheck
7th Inning – Justin Speier
8th Inning – Scot Shields
Closer – Francisco Rodriguez

Santana clearly moves out of this role and into the rotation for probably the entire season, or until he pitches himself out of it, whichever comes first. Moseley enters the rotation for the beginning of the year. Bootcheck and Shields are hurt. Looks like Rich Thompson and Darren O'Day will fill their slots for the first part of the year. The back end of the rotation stays intact.

Key Battles: The biggest question mark going into Spring Training is clearly at shortstop. The off-season trade of Orlando Cabrera, which brought pitcher John Garland in return, opened up the shortstop spot for a battle between Maicer Izturis and prospects Erick Aybar and Brandon Wood. Aybar appears to be the early favorite based on public comments by Mike Scioscia, who favors the young Dominican for his defense and ability to make contact. Izturis is more of a proven performer at the plate, and is solid defensively, but has never put everything together for a whole season. He also provides the versatility to sub at third base and second base if needed. Wood is a long shot, but if he explodes this Spring, he could force some difficult decisions for the Angels brain trust.

Wood didn't explode. Aybar looked surprisingly good, and I expect him to play a lot, even with Izturis getting the opening day start. Maicer hit .365/.431/.500 in 52 at bats, while Aybar showed good power, hitting .274/324/.532, including four homers. This was probably the best case for the Angels. Both players responded to the competition and they go into the season with both playing well. I didn't see many games, but reports on Aybar's defense were positive as well.

The Cabrera/Garland trade has also created somewhat of a logjam in the starting rotation where, upon the return of Kelvim Escobar, the Angels will have six starters for only five starting spots. Ervin Santana will more than likely start the season in the rotation and remain there as long as Escobar is out. When Escobar gets healthy, Santana figures to be the odd man out, but he could beat out lefty Joe Saunders for the fifth spot. He remains the number one option to make spot starts, or to fill rotation holes should anyone else get injured. Either way, Garland’s addition added depth to an already excellent starting staff.

Who knew they'd really need that depth this early. As it turns out, the deal was very prescient, both because of the need at starter and because of the developments at short. Moseley had a decent spring, giving up four runs in 12 innings, with a solid 1.25 WHIP, but only six strike outs. Still, they'll only ask for six innings and chance to win from their fifth starter until Lackey returns. And hopefully, with Santana still a question mark (4.26 spring ERA in 31.2 IP), maybe Moseley will use this as a chance to make his case for a starting job.

The acquisition of Torii Hunter created the proverbial good problem to have, as the Angels head into the Spring with five outfielders who could start for at least two thirds of the league, and a sixth who could probably start for 6-8 more. Hunter as the every day center fielder seems to be the only lock at this point. Vladimir Guerrero figures to split time between right field and DH, while Garret Anderson will do the same at the left field/DH spot. There are questions about how much Anderson has left in the tank, but after returning to full health he exploded over the last two and a half months of the season, when he put up a line of .350/.409/.650. It remains to be seen whether that was a fluke, or whether he can carry that forward to 2008. Gary Matthews Jr. will play everywhere, depending on who needs a day off, and who is DHing. For the moment, this leaves both Juan Rivera, one season removed from bad broken leg, and Reggie Willits, who exploded at the start of the season before wearing down in the last few months, on the outside looking in. Both figure to be tradable commodities prior to opening day, and a good spring could lead to a deal, perhaps packaged with an arm in return for a big bat. The Angels probably wouldn’t mind moving Matthews as well, but a no trade clause stands in the way.

Six outfielders on the opening day roster. Hunter had a tremendous spring (.345/.367/.707), as did Gary Matthews (.449/.472/.612). In fact, the six outfielders hit a combined .334/.372/.544 in roughly 300 total at bats. That's some pretty solid depth, and it will be interesting to see how Scioscia gets all these guys involved. And with the pitching issues, it wouldn't be a shock to see one of them gone before June.

Waiting in the wings is Kendry Morales, who started to show what he could do at the plate, hitting .323/.343/.462 over the last month of the season. He could see time at first base if the Angels decide to sit Casey Kotchman against tough lefties, but to this point, Morales has been a better hitter from the left side of the plate, so there may not be much platoon advantage there, and the Angels could decide to stick with Robb Quinlan in that role. Both have seen limited time in the outfield, giving the Angels a seventh option should the need arise, though that seems unlikely.

Morales (.385/.484/.558 - 52 at bats) had an excellent spring, as did Quinlan (.317/.333/.439 - 41 at bats). Kotchman was less than stellar, but wasn't really competing for a job. What really stands out are the seven walks drawn by Kendry in those 52 at bats. Pretty incredible for a guy with extremely questionable plate discipline.

A smaller skirmish will take place behind the plate, where Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis will split time. The only question is which one will take over the primary duties. Napoli has the superior stick, with a 109 OPS+ over his first 174 games, while Mathis provides better defense. Napoli struggled a bit at the plate after returning from injury over the last month of the season, but even his .707 OPS over that period was far superior to anything Mathis has been able to put up over any month in his career.

No surprise here. It was Napoli winning the job, although Mathis had a pretty decent spring. They're catchers, so there's going to be plenty of playing time for both anyway.

What To Expect: Aybar will be given every opportunity to succeed at shortstop, but if he can’t cut it, the Angels may back into a better option with Izturis. Expect Wood to start the season in Salt Lake with a mandate to improve his ability to make contact. I’d be a bit surprised if they broke camp with both Willits and Rivera, as neither figures to be in their top four outfielders unless they can find someone to take Matthews and his big contract off their hands. It’s doubtful that all six starting pitchers will be ready to go in the first week, so I wouldn’t expect the fifth spot in the rotation to be decided until a week or two into April.

They didn't back into a better option at short - Izturis won it outright. Wood will start the season in Salt Lake because he was not very good this spring, but he's still young, so I'm not particularly worried. I'm surprised they still have all six outfielders. I don't expect the rotation issues to be settled until mid to late May. But I do expect the Angels to win the division. Oakland second. Seattle third. Texas last. Let's play ball!

The Real UCLA Shows Up - Final Four x3

I don't fancy myself a great prognosticator. Anyone who read my NCAA Tournament predictions knows that's not true, but I would like to point out that after the WKU game, I wrote:

There's nothing about the recent play of either team that should make me feel confident about tomorrow's matchup with Xavier. That said, I think the Bruins will win, and while it won't be said and done until near the end, I don't think it will take overtime or a buzzer beater. It just has the makings of one of those games where everyone is convinced that Xavier is is going to really take it to UCLA, and the Bruins won't be able to respond, but when teams actually take the floor, the cream rises to the top. Get ready for all of the pundits to pick the upset. Those guys are usually wrong.

I'd say that was pretty spot on. That said, here are my thoughts:

• People thought Texas A&M would be a wake up call. It wasn't. Texas A&M is a good team, and they gave UCLA all they could handle because they were solid and unafraid. The wake up call was the second half against Western Kentucky. And I can almost guarantee you that Ben Howland reminded them how easily a game can get away when you don't give everything you have.
• Where are all the folks who say that UCLA gets all the calls? I wonder if they actually watched the last game. The officials were terrible. They called a very tight game on one end of the floor. Not that they let Xavier get away with murder, but they called so many non-fouls on UCLA that it was really embarrassing. In one sequence, they called what was a clear charge taken by Aboya a block, and shortly thereafter, they didn't call an obvious trip on what should have been a lay up by Russel Westbrook.
• Speaking of Westbrook, someone needs to tell him that there's no rule saying that when you break a full court press, you have to go right to the basket. Teams play the press hoping to create turnovers, but the real goal is to speed up the game, to force quick shots, and to get you into their tempo. The way you beat that, if you're UCLA, is to get the ball into the front court and slow it down. Run the clock. Alter the tempo. I said this the other day, but we're talking about UCLA. They should be able to force teams to play at THEIR pace.
  
• Xavier lost to Arizona State this year in Phoenix. In fact, they got hammered. Maybe they just got scared of the Sundevil on the court in tonight's game.
  
• Once again, Josh Shipp underwhelmed on the scoreboard, but I thought he played an excellent game. Had two blocks, a big assist, played excellent defense, and made great decisions. He passed up some threes, not because he was tentative, but because he knew that controlling the pace and the clock was in UCLA's best interests at those times. It's a cliché, but he really did do ALL the little things.
  
• Luc's ankle looked pretty good to me. 13 points, 13 boards, 3 assists, 3 steals!, some big baskets at big times, including a tough shot with about 8 minutes to go when Xavier was within 15 and just scored on their last possession.
• Raftery and Lundquist mentioned that only UCLA's starters were scoring. They did it a few times. And James Keefe clearly didn't have the game he had against WKU. But the other night, I mentioned that UCLA beat Texas A&M with two, maybe two and a half players. Tonight all five starters were on the scoreboard in the first six minutes. Love, LRMAM, Collison, and Westbrook combined for 68 points, against what is regarded as a very fine defensive team. You don't need bench production when you can get that out of your starters. You need some minutes, and some defense, but I'm fine with the starters dominating the scoreboard if they can put up those numbers.
• Mike Roll has a chance to be a member of five final four teams.
  
• This was, in my opinion, under the circumstances, the finest performance of the season by the Bruins. They led every statistical category. Xavier stayed within shouting distance for a bit, and there was as surge of momentum when they pulled to within 12, but they never really let the game get into doubt in the second half.
• Love was CBS's player of the game, but Collison was mine. 19 points, five assists, and three for three from three. Quite a comeback after what happened Thursday night. He was the difference maker tonight.
• Memphis or Texas? Don't care right now. But keep this in mind. UCLA has three losses this year. They can look back and say that two were avenged (OK, so they avenged the Washington loss before they lost to them), but if they face Texas, they'll have a chance to say they've beaten every single team they played this year. But I think they have a better shot to win against Memphis (who I think will lose anyway).
• It's nice to know that college basketball matters for another week.
  

UCLA Dominates, Chokes, Recovers, Against WKU

Well, that was a little too close for comfort if you ask me. But like I did for the last game, I'll just bullet out my thoughts. Keep in mind that I watched the first half in a bar, and that they turned the game off in the second half except on a couple of small TVs, after which I walked the (literally) 250 feet from the bar to my apartment to watch the rest. It was during this time that WKU started their run:

• Do not overlook the importance of free throws in this win. UCLA shot a 74.3% for the game, but they really nutted up in the clutch, hitting 12 of their final 14 to salt the game away. They way Brazelton was canning threes, they needed every one of those. Special congratulations to Russel Westbrook, who has been a little spotty from the line this year, but hit seven of eight last night, and was 6 for 6 in the final 1:11 of the game.
• Obviously the big stories of the game were the huge night for Kevin Love and the surprising performance from James Keefe. People forget, or are unaware, that Keefe was a McDonald's All American. I think he's struggled fitting in on the Bruins for the last two years, but the guy is a good basketball player, and he's really benefiting from the increase in playing time. He just looks more comfortable in the rotation, and last night he really emerged. That said, I don't expect another game like that from him in this tournament, but hopefully they won't need one. More than anything, it gives me a little more comfort with regard to next season, when Love likely won't be around. They'll be solid on the perimeter, and after last night's explosion, I think they'll be alright on the interior as well.
• I also don't expect another performance like last night out of Darren Collison. It's funny, but I didn't see or hear much "UCLA gets all the calls" smack last night. Maybe in some parallel universe, Collison actually touched the guy on that fifth foul.
• I'm not overly concerned about this game "exposing" the Bruins, or giving Xavier a roadmap to victory tomorrow night. I don't think UCLA's problem was with full court press, although that's going to be the dominant narrative. The problem is that they built a big lead, came out unfocused in the second half, started making mistakes, and couldn't get their heads back in the game. They let WKU speed them up, and they had a tough time re-grabbing the reins.
  
• To add to the point above, I think that a big flaw in the way they played wasn't so much the press per se, but rather the fact that they allowed WKU to set the tempo. The talk before the game was that WKU will speed things up, and the game will be fast paced, etc. But there are two sides of that coin. UCLA likes a slower style, and what they didn't do was force THEIR pace. This is UCLA, a number one seed. They should not allow their opponent to dictate the tempo. When you're UCLA, and especially a Bruins team that is this good, you need to make your opponent adjust to you, not the other way around.
• When Joe Shipp was at Cal, he always seemed like one of those enigma type players to me. He wasn't a speedy ball-handling point guard. He wasn't a three point gunner. He wasn't a high flying dunker. What he was was a scorer. He didn't do anything great, but he did a lot of things well, and at the end of the game, he'd have 15-20 points. That's the way Josh Shipp plays when he's at his best. Somewhere along the line, he convinced himself he was a spot up shooter, and I think that's contributed to his slump this year. But in the later part of the first half last night, he slashed to the basket twice for layups. I don't know if they made a difference in his confidence, but his circus shot at the end of the game was huge. He just needs to convince himself that there are shot worth taking from closer than 20 feet.
• Come to think of it, that's two circus shots he's hit with a clock expiring (either game or 35 second). Perhaps he's been TOO open during his slump. In other words, he's not shooting unless he's got a perfect opportunity, which unfortunately includes time to think about missing. I'm not saying he should take more contested shots. I'm saying that he probably shoots better when he doesn't have time to think about it, or more importantly, just isn't thinking. Shooting isn't a cerebral exercise. It's feel and mechanics. To paraphrase Crash Davis, don't think, just shoot.
  
• There's nothing about the recent play of either team that should make me feel confident about tomorrow's matchup with Xavier. That said, I think the Bruins will win, and while it won't be said and done until near the end, I don't think it will take overtime or a buzzer beater. It just has the makings of one of those games where everyone is convinced that Xavier is is going to really take it to UCLA, and the Bruins won't be able to respond, but when teams actually take the floor, the cream rises to the top. Get ready for all of the pundits to pick the upset. Those guys are usually wrong.
  

In Agreement with the Chronicler

I pretty much agree with all of this. And that goes for the basketball posts as well.

But, at this point, I've been doing this for the Vlad Era, and this many years into it, I think I'm pretty much out of things to say. Rally Monkey's better than I am on the stats stuff, Rob has the minor leagues covered with his daily updates, and I can always count on Seitz to criticize John Lackey's pitch selection or the umpires or whatever. Not to mention that Halos Heaven is about as thriving an online fan community can be. I think my capacity to share with my readership something new, and my devotion and energy to finding new things to share, is at a nadir. And the Halosphere has me covered -- I'm sure my twenty or so readers will manage.

Who knows, in two or three weeks, with the season in full swing, maybe something will occur to me. Maybe I'll end up doing one piece per month or something. If you have me in your blog reader, keep me there. If you don't have me in it, well, then you probably aren't reading this anyway. If you don't have a blog reader, you should start using one, they're really convenient.

Writing has been sporadic primarily because the few people that read this site come from either Bruins Nation or Angels sites, primarily Halos Heaven. And as those sites are updated much more frequently and have larger communities, most of what I could find myself saying has already been said, and at a place or places where the people that read this site have already been or will soon be going. That's part of the reason there have been more music posts. This is a pretty self indulgent exercise to begin with, and I'm not really out there soliciting traffic, though it's nice to know people stop by.

That said, I assume that once the season starts, blogging will pick up more regularly. As the Chronicler noted, writing's only kind of fun when you have something to say. And most of what I write is based on what I see. Take for instance the post below on the UCLA game. Those are observations, some of which have since been covered multiple places, but they were thoughts fresh in my head based on what I had witnessed, and hopefully there was something there that someone enjoyed, or hadn't thought of in quite the same way. I'm not really a stat guy, so I'm not going to do any in depth analysis in that regard. When the games start up, and I start seeing more stuff, I'll start writing about more stuff.

That said, I will be writing more about the Kings next year, but probably not here. It's an opportunity to write for someone else's site, and I'll have more on that as the day approaches. That's of course in addition to the sporadic "Song of the Day" stuff I've had over at the Bulls' place.

UCLA over Texas A&M - Quick Thoughts

Instead of an extended post, I'm going on about five or six beers right now, so I'll do a quick one and bullet point it.

• I'm not going to second guess Ben Howland. I've wondered about his time out strategy, his scheduling, and a bunch of other things since he came to UCLA, but I've gotta wonder if he wishes he had gotten LRMAM into the game for a five or ten minutes the other night, just to get some timing down. He looked very out of sorts tonight. He didn't look like he had ankle problems, but he struggled with decision making, and that led directly to a couple of charges.
  
• UCLA beat A&M with arguably two and a half players. Offensively, they got nothing from LRMAM or Shipp, and Westbrook didn't show up until the second half. A full Bruins team is unbeatable. We learned tonight that half a Bruins team is still damn good if it's the right half.
• If I had to guess, based on tonight's game alone, I would guess that Kevin Love is gone after this season. And I say that solely because of the way he played down the stretch. He simply refused to allow this to be his last college basketball game. He hit two shots in the waning minutes that he normally wouldn't take. But ask yourself, would you have rather had him taking a bad shot than Shipp taking a good shot? He was not going to miss.
• He's got two more final fours than the other two, but Darren Collison has finally been admitted to the fraternity of Bruin guards that include, from my own personal era, Tyus Edney and Cameron Dollar. Admission requires a game deciding basket for a high seeded team in the final ten seconds. And honestly, the shot was almost identical to Dollar's, plus about seven seconds.
  
• I just saw the commercial for the new movie 21. For those wondering, the song in the commercial is Spoon's "My Mathematical Mind", which I suppose is somewhat appropriate.
• If the Bruins go on to win the championship, Lorenzo Mata-Real can forever tell people that he hit a 17 foot jumper that was, mathematically, the difference in them moving on.
  
• Did Kevin Love have seven blocks all season going into this game?
• I run hot and cold on Jay Bilas. I like him as a color guy, not as much as an analyst. He's incredibly misguided on the subjects of Tommy Amaker and Eric Gordon, but I like what he brings to the sideline, and he works well with Enberg. And his "OH!!" on Collison's game winner was eerily similar to his "OH!!" on Deron Williams' game tying three against Arizona in 2005.
• UCLA has a reputation, as we all know, for being a boring team to watch, because of their great defense. But had I not just checked, I would never have known that TAM went over eight and half minutes near the end of the game (for 10:09 to 1:19) with one point. For some reason, I thought the game was still pretty exciting.
• A friend of mine texted me to tell me that the next game should be easy. That's what Drake and UConn thought. But as long as we're talking about USD, remember when the Bruins had a coach that would lose to USD? I credit their success to the $150 dollars I gave to them in exchange for nothing more than another two months to decide where to go to law school.
• Call them the cardiac kids if you must, and no one wants to see the Bruins get behind and be forced to come back, but you have to think that the comebacks over the last three weeks helped the Bruins remain calm in the second half. Of course, they didn't help ME remain calm, but I'm not out there playing, which is good, because I suck.
• Digger Phelps just talked about Jordan Hill playing for Stanford. Digger Phelps is an idiot.
• With the upsets in the bracket, there's no reason the Bruins shouldn't get to at least the final four again. It's all on them now.
  
• Three Pac 10 teams in the sweet 16 is good, but not great. Not like 1997. We need all three to get to the next round. Let's get it done, Wazzu. Should be an interesting game. UNC's high powered offense against Wazzu's defense.
  
• On to Phoenix. It's only five hours away, folks. If you can get out there, go make the place feel like Pauley.
  

X at the Metro - A Quick Recap

So it's the 31st anniversary of the formation of one of the most influential punk bands ever, L.A.'s seminal X. I saw them a few years ago when they played the House of Blues. It was the first time I'd seen the original lineup, though I've seen John Doe play solo a few times and he usually throws a couple of X songs into his solo sets.

This was the fourth or fifth show of their current tour. They took the stage a little after 10:30 and played for about an hour and 15 minutes. I'll cop to never having seen their shows when they were actually producing new music (I was just a little kid), but the amount of energy they bring to their live shows can't have been much greater back then. They were a little sloppy at times, probably because they had such a long set list. It's easy to lose your place on the page when you've got 20 songs listed. Exene Cervenka chalked it up to being "new at this". But there's nothing more fun that watching Billy Zoom, wide stanced and almost motionless, standing there with a huge grin on his face while delivering some of the most complex guitar work found on any punk record. From Buddy Siegal in the OC Weekly:

Dave Alvin, the former Blasters' axe man who ultimately replaced Zoom, is a renowned guitar hotshot in his own right, but he soon learned that stepping into Zoom's cowboy boots was no easy task. "I was amazed when I had to actually sit down and learn 32 songs in two weeks," says Alvin. "How Billy Zoom put his parts together was amazing. For a three-piece band, his orchestration on guitar was really tremendous. They were almost mathematically perfect arrangements. Billy likes tinkering with machines and electronics, and in some ways, his guitar parts are put together like schematics. I'm more of a primitive. I lack that kind of technique, and Billy was very, very advanced. I learned a lot; my guitar playing improved a lot after I had to sit down and learn all of his parts. There's a part of me that's forever in his debt, from having my Billy Zoom guitar lessons. A lot of punk bands-a lot of any bands-don't have these kind of intelligent guitar parts. That guy is really good."

Decide for yourself in the samples below. Here's the incomplete and out of order setlist (they played at least six or seven more songs than this - probably closer to ten):

• Once Over Twice
• We're Desperate
• In This House That I Call Home
• White Girl
• Back to the Base
• Your Phone's Off the Hook, But You're Not
• Johnny Hit and Run Paulene
• Soul Kitchen
• Nausea
• Los Angeles
• The New World
• True Love
• Hungry Wolf
• Motel Room in my Bed
• Because I Do
• Riding With Mary
• Blue Spark
• The Unheard Music

I was pretty stoked that they played Blue Spark. That's one of my favorite X songs, and they didn't play it the last time I saw them. Aside from that, you always expect to hear Hungry Wolf, Los Angeles, and White Girl, and they didn't disappoint last night. Here are those three (though the Hungry Wolf video is missing the beginning for some reason - also, give White Girl about a minute twenty before the song actually starts):

X - The Hungry Wolf

Sun Times Review

Tournament Picks

Upsets in red

Round One

East Region:

North Carolina over Mt. St. Mary's
Indiana over Arkansas
Notre Dame over George Mason
Wazzu over Winthrop
St. Joe's over Oklahoma
Louisville over Boise State
Butler over South Alabama
Tennessee over America

Midwest Region

Kansas over Portland State
UNLV over Kent State
Clemson over Villanova
Vandy over Sienna
U$C over Kansas State
Wisconsin over Fullteron
Davidson over Gonzaga
Georgetown over Maryland-Baltimore County

I know that Davidson is a popular upset, and that almost makes me want to pick Gonzaga, just because there's always a "lock" upset that doesn't come through, but Davidson is pretty good. They almost beat UCLA.

South Region

Memphis over UTA
Oregon over Mississippi State
State over Temple
Pitt over Oral Roberts
Kentucky over Marquette
Stanford over Cornell
St. Mary's over Miami
Texas over Austin Peay

West Region

UCLA over Miss. Valley State
BYU over Texas A&M
Drake over Western Kentucky
UCONN over USD
Purdue over Baylor
Xavier over Georgia
Arizona over West Virginia
Duke over Belmont

Round Two

East Region

UNC over Indiana
Wazzu over Notre Dame
Louisville over St. Joe's
Tennessee over Butler

No surprises here. The WSU-ND game should be good. The last time Notre Dame was a five seed, they made it to the sweet sixteen, but Tony Bennet isn't as dumb as Bill Self, so I think the Cougs will pull it out.

Midwest Region

Kansas over UNLV
Clemson over Vandy
U$C over Wiscy
Davidson over Georgetown

This bracket starts to get torn up. I like the athleticism of the women of troy, and if they can stay out of foul trouble, they'll handle Wisconsin. Davidson becomes my first major upset of the tournament.

South Region

Memphis over Oregon
MSU over Pitt
Stanford over Kentucky
Texas over St. Mary's

Again, no real surprises, other than perhaps MSU, but I'll give Izzo the benefit of the doubt come tourney time, especially with a senior point guard.

West Region

UCLA over BYU
Drake over UConn
Purdue over Xavier
Arizona over Duke

I love Arizona's talent if everyone is healthy. I think Jordan Hill can do some damage against an undersized middle. I look at Xavier and I still see the team that lost to ASU. I haven't seen Drake or UConn, but everyone's on Drake's jock, so why not?

Sweet 16

East Region

UNC over Wazzu
Tennessee over Louisville

Nothing to see here.

Midwest Region

KU over Clemson
U$C over Davidson

Troy gets a break after Davidson's upset of Georgetown.

South Region

Michigan State over Memphis
Texas over Stanford

Interior defense and rebounding are MSU staples, and Memphis will be doing a lot of "kicking out" when their drives end up in the trees. They start missing threes, go one and done, and they won't help themselves at the free throw line. In the other matchup, I like Stanford a lot, but I think Darren Collison exposed Mitch Johnson's defense. DJ Augustin will get to the middle and create havoc, and if he can kick it out to open Damion James, Stanford is in for a long night, especially in what will be a home game for Texas.

West Region

UCLA over Drake
Arizona over Purdue

Like U$C, Arizona gets a big of a break by missing Xavier. I really don't like Arizona. I especially don't like Arizona fans. But I think they have the type of talent that can take them on a run.

Elite Eight

East Region

Tennessee over North Carolina

A running, pressing, shooting team, not unlike Clemson who coincidentally gave UNC a lot of problems in their three matchups this year. The difference is that Tennessee does all those things better than Clemson. The Vols move on to San Antonio.

Midwest Region

Kansas over U$C

In a battle of two teams that I hate, it's unfortunate that both can't lose. But Kansas' depth will be too much for the latex-thin Trojans.

South Region

Texas over Michigan State

Texas has too much, and playing in Houston, they'll ride the home court to San Antonio.

West Region

UCLA over Arizona

Scary game for UCLA, and I'm really tempted to pick against them here. The Cats scare me almost more than any team in this bracket because of the location of the game. But the Bruins have already beat Arizona in Tucson, and things won't get any easier for the Cats in Phoenix. The streak goes to eight.

Final Four

Tennessee over Kansas

Again, I can't think of two coaches I'd like to see lose more than these two. But unfortunately, the rules say someone has to win. Depth and balance should do the trick for Kansas. But as much I hate lying scumbag Bruce Pearl, he's a better coach than Bill Self. Self will somehow find a way to lose.

UCLA over Texas

Darren Collison is healthy. He wasn't back in December. And he's on a mission. Since that Texas game, only his second game back, after missing the first six, he's hit 53% of his three pointers. He will not let UCLA lose.

Championship Game

UCLA over Tennessee.

The Bruins ability to control the tempo will frustrate Tennessee, and their relentless ball pressure on the defensive end will lead to some easy baskets for the Bruins. It will be an interesting contrast in styles, but Kevin Love is going to be too much for Tennessee inside, and that will be the difference.

NCAA Tourney First Thoughts

• UCLA has a nice path to the championship, and based on that, they should be the favorite. None of the teams in their bracket scare me.
  
• ASU got dicked. This is what happens when the committee places too much emphasis on schedule and not enough on results. They are simply a better team than Arizona. They proved it over the course of the Pac 10 season, and twice on the court.
• Part of the problem for ASU was, as always, conference tournaments, which I hate. Why play a regular season if you're just going to award the automatic bid to someone who has a hot weekend? Illinois had no business playing for a shot at the tourney. Neither did Georgia, who probably kept ASU out.
  
• No quarrel with the number one seeds.
• Picks will come later this week, but right now I don't like the draw for Stanford, and I like the draw for Tennessee. I think they'll beat North Carolina. They're like Clemson, who UNC struggled with, but better.
  

Berkeley Game Follow Up

First on the Ryan Anderson play, this is from The California Golden Blogs, referring to the video posted in the previous entry:

We here at the California Golden Blogs do the dirty work you don’t have to. We watched this video. Over and over and over again. Hoping to see those damnable Bruins hogtie up Anderson and roll the ball out of bounds as the refs received millions of dollars in cash money from Bill Walton. Hoping to see something. Anything.

Well……………….and this is not what the Cal fans are not going to want to hear, but it actually looks clean. I know I know! The refs. Screwed Cal. No hope. Braun not at fault.

It goes down like this. Player #0, Russell Westbrook, comes towards Anderson from behind. He drapes his left hand over the back of Anderson. However, this is done with the gentlest of care, as if Westbrook and Anderson were in a committed monogamous relationship. Then, Westbrook slaps vertically down upon the ball and it looks like ONLY the ball. Then, Anderson falls to the ground as the ball bounces off his knee.

Now, here is where it gets a bit tricky. Even though its in slo mo and HD, it is tough to make out what happens next exactly. Westbrook clearly bounces the ball once, trying to recover it. It looks like Anderson then punches the ball out of bounds as he falls forward. I cannot tell if Westbrook in any way touches the ball also at this point. Another Bruins player comes over, but it does not appear as if he touches the ball. I have watched that section of the video innumerable times in both the side and front angle, but it is still a bit unclear. If you stuck a gun to my head and asked my opinion, I’d have to say that it looks like Anderson was the last player to touch the ball.

What this means is that the refs might have gotten it totally correct. From the video, it appears that the non-call on the foul was correct. And it looks reasonably certain that it was Bruins ball. I hate to have to say this. But I’m just trying to be objective and reasonable about it.

I still think that Shipp’s shot was apparently illegal and should have been waived off. I also still think Cal would have nonetheless found a creative and exciting way to lose the game. I mean c’mon.

Now, about that shot, here's what an expert thinks (emphasis mine):

According to Hank Nichols, the NCAA's national coordinator of men's officiating, the rule is often referred to as the Wilt Chamberlain rule because its original intent was to prevent a team from lobbing the ball over the backboard to an immensely tall and talented player because the play couldn't be defended. "The intent wasn't to stop a circus jump shot," Nichols said.

So, we have even Berkeley fans admitting that there was no foul, and the ball correctly was given to UCLA, and we have the NCAA coordinator of officiating saying that there's really no good reason that Shipp's shot shouldn't have counted. Seems pretty cut and dried to me.

Thoughts on the Berkeley Game

First, before reading any further, watch this.

You should notice a few things. First, Russell Westbrook got 100% ball on the slap that knocked the ball from Ryan Anderson's hands. Much like Dee Brown did against Mustapha Shakur in 2005. Just because you slap down, it's not an automatic foul. You actually have to hit the guy, which Westbrook didn't do.

Second, Ryan Anderson is a fucking liar. He claims "they clearly tackled me." Of course, he apparently realized how ridiculous that sounded and quickly backed off. "maybe not tackled me -- but I fell to the ground and it didn't go our way." That's better.

Third, if you watch the play and actually pay attention, you'll see Anderson's hand knocking the ball out of bounds. Right call on the no foul followed by the right call on out of bounds play.

As for the shot, the letter of the rule doesn't look good for UCLA, but it depends on the interpretation. To me, a shot going over the backboard is a shot that originiates from either directly in front or directly behind the backboard. If you're shooting from the side, they either have to make it so that it never counts if you start from behind the plane of the backboard, which would be stupid, or set up some sort of trapezoid from which shots won't count. Quite frankly, it's a dumb rule anyway, but that's beside the point. Ultimately, it's debatable, and I can see why people would be pissed, but tough shit.

One win ought to lock up the number one seed in the West, but they'll have to do it against either a fired up Berkeley team that will be out for revenge, or a Washington team that took the Bruins apart a few weeks ago. If Brockman is hurt bad, it will probably be Berkeley.

Congrautlations, Bruins

Three straight Pac 10 titles: Good

Darren Collison: Very good

Call at the end of the game: Probably not that great, but they blew a couple of huge calls that led to Stanford points, specifically Mitch Johnson's double dribble and Lawrence Hill's charge on the go ahead basket.

Me: Very, very sick.

Doug Gottlieb: Very, very stupid.

This is from the "Around the Rim" column today:

UCLA looked OK, but got nothing from Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Alfred Aboya, Lorenzo Mata-Real and Josh Shipp. Even Russell Westbrook was highly ineffective at times against Stanford.

Only in Doug Gottlieb's strange little world is 10 points and 11 rebounds from your fifth option, playing against two seven footers, "nothing". And only in that same world is 19 points "ineffective". Christ, every player has times during a game where they're ineffective. Let's face it, Doug Gottlieb is an expert on two things, stealing credit cards and missing free throws. The guy's an idiot.

Now it's time to close it out and win the title outright on Saturday.

Ready for a War?

Kings vs. Senators, tomorrow night. I don't know why, but for some reason the last two games between these teams have been freaking awesome.

In 2001, the game that made Adam Deadmarsh a Kings legend.


A (small) sample of what happened in 2006 when they met again.


And what happened after Jim Fox called out Bryan Murray for being a punk and sending big Zdeno Chara after Tim Gleason.


Let's hope tomorrow night is just as fun.

Most Anticipated Album of 2008 - for the time being

At least, now that the new Raveonettes album is out...

Spiritualized gets a date for the U.S. release of "Songs in A&E". This is really a reminder to myself more than anything. Here's some older stuff from J. Spaceman.

UCLA 68; Arizona 66

It's funny. A fan base can get so used to things going their way that they don't even realize what little bitches they become when the tide starts to turn. For two and a half decades, Arizona has been led by one of college basketball's Eddie Haskells. Mike Kzysrcksvisklseiski is the same way. These are coaches who seem so friendly and gentle in interviews and when away from the court, but who spend approximately 39:55 of a 40 minute game berating officials and whining like children. In their defense, it works. For years, each team has gotten virtually every call. Hell, Lute didn't even pick up a technical when he ran across the floor to call Lucas Johnson "crazy" in 2000. And somehow they had no problem with the officiating the regional final that season when six Illinois players fouled out, and no Wildcat had more than three fouls.

But times change, coaches change, and standards are replaced. For the seventh consecutive time, UCLA defeated Arizona, despite a great performance from Jordan Hill, and a "better than he usually does against UCLA" performance from Chase Buddinger. It wasn't enough to overcome 24 and 15 from Kevin Love (10-11 from the free throw line), and 16 points from Darren Collison, who continues to be hot from long range (2-3 in this one).

In a fairly surprising development, Arizona got more minutes, and more production, from its bench than UCLA. Part, perhaps most, of that was due to foul trouble, particularly from starter Fendi Onobun, who lasted only 13 minutes before fouling out. Jamelle Horne also struggled with foul trouble, and Jordan Hill caught the bug in the second half.

On the other side, every Bruin starter played at least 33 minutes. What looked like a deep bench at the beginning of the season has been dramatically shortened, and that could cause problems for the Bruins down the stretch. Chace Stanback has been somewhat disappointing in that regard. Note that I'm in no way calling him a bust. Very few freshman come in and contribute right away, but the Bruins benefited the last two years from unexpected contributions from Darren Collison and Russel Westbrook. Both of those players have proven that their freshman contributions were no flukes. They're very special players, and not everyone can bring what they've brought. But of all the bench guys, I figured Stanback might be the guy who could give them a five minute shot in the arm from game to game, but it never materialized. Nikola Dragovic has been a bit of disappointment as well. If anyone could have replaced Mike Roll's shooting, a desperate need for this team, Dragovic figured to be the guy, but he's struggled with his shot all year.

McKale is never an easy place to leave victorious, but Bruins managed to do it yet again, and now they'll fight for a number one seed this week at home against the Bay Area schools. Beat Stanford and they clinch the Pac 10 title. Lose, and they may not be the top seed in the conference tournament. And if they win that game, they absolutely cannot afford a let-down against Berkeley on Saturday. The West Coast road to the Final Four is theirs for the taking. Now they just need to get it done on the court.